Climate change bad 3 gw real/Anthro 4 Warming is Real 5 Warming Bad Impacts 9

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Not Anthropogenic

Climate change is not anthropogenic—human contributions are minimal

Duffy 13 (Dr. Geoff Duffy Professor of Chemical Engineering DEng, PhD, BSc, ASTC Dip, FRS NZ, FIChemE, CEng, Climate Change, the real cause,

Climate is always changing, and always will. There are seasons. There are day-night (diurnal) cycles. At any one location, heat energy from the sun varies during the day. Energy from the sun is affected by local conditions and clouds. Heat absorption depends on whether it impacts water or land, and then even the type of land (desert, forest, snow-covered land), or the layout of the land (continental masses, or islands surrounded by seas). In some areas temperatures are climbing and in some areas they are dropping. Warming is not occurring everywhere at once, and hence ‘global warming’ is a misnomer. ¶ So what are the key players in ‘Climate Change’? The major driver is the sun. Warming depends on the sun. Cooling is due to the lack of sun’s energy. Radiant energy enters the earth’s atmosphere - air (on a dry basis) which mainly consists of nitrogen 78.08% and oxygen 20.94%. Of the 0.98% remaining, 0.934% (almost all) is the inert gas argon. Carbon dioxide CO2 is a trace. It is less than 400ppm (parts per million) or 0.04%. Surprisingly, less than a fifth of that is [hu]manmade CO2 (0.008% of the total), and that is only since the beginning of the industrial era and the rapid increase in world population. ¶ What is the next major constituent of air apart from oxygen and nitrogen? Water: as a vapour, a condensed liquid, or ice crystals. The atmosphere is comprised of about 1-3% water vapour [At 200C and 100% humidity there is 0.015kg water/kg air or 1.5%: at 50% Humidity, 0.008kg water/kg air or 0.8%: and in warmer climate at say 300C, 100% humidity, 0.028kg water/kg air or 2.8%]. Water vapour condenses to form clouds and it is by far the most abundant and significant of the greenhouse gases. Water accounts for about 95% of the greenhouse effect. The main atmospheric ‘intermediary’ between the sun and earth is water, and thus it dictates the behaviour of the earth's climate. Without water vapour in particular and other greenhouse gases in the air in general, the surface air temperatures worldwide would be well below freezing. The sun clearly must be a much bigger influence on global temperatures than any of the greenhouse gases, even water and CO2. Carbon dioxide is about 1/60 of water in air!! It clearly is not the major player even though it is wise to minimise [hu]man-made emissions like particulate emissions, and CO2 and other pollutants and gases where practically possible.¶ Variable and unstable weather conditions are caused by local as well as large-scale differences in conditions (wind, rain, evaporation, topography etc). They naturally induce either warming or cooling locally, regionally, or worldwide. We all have experienced how clouds on a cloudy/sunny day strongly affect our experience of both heat and light (infrared energy and visible light). Clouds do several things! The atmosphere may be heated by clouds by emitting latent heat of condensation as water vapour condenses. But clouds can both heat the atmosphere by reducing the amount of radiation transmitted, or cool the atmosphere by reflecting radiation. So of all the affects that can cause heating and cooling in the atmosphere and on earth, clearly water is the main greenhouse ‘gas’. Other greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide CO2, methane CH4, oxides of nitrogen etc) are 1/60 to 1/30 smaller in both quantity and effect. So with all ‘greenhouse gases’ including water, human activity accounts for only minute amounts, just 0.28% of the total greenhouse gases. If we exclude the key one, water, then human activity would only account for about 5.53% of the total greenhouse effect. This is minute in the total picture whatever way we look at it.

Warming is natural-water vapor

Jaworowski 2004 [Professor Zbigniew M.D., Ph.D., D.Sc. is the chairman of the Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw. Winter “Solar Cycles, Not CO2, Determine Climate” 21st Century Science Tech]

In fact, the recent climate developments are not something unusual; they reflect a natural course of planetary events. From time immemorial, alternate warm and cold cycles have followed each other, with a periodicity ranging from tens of millions to several years. The cycles were most probably dependent on the extraterrestrial changes occurring in the Sun and in the Sun’s neighborhood. Short term changes—those occurring in a few years—are caused by terrestrial factors such as large volcanic explosions, which inject dust into the stratosphere, and the phenomenon of El Niño, which depends on the variations in oceanic currents. Thermal energy produced by natural radionuclides that are present in the 1-kilometer-thick layer of the Earth’s crust, contributed about 117 kilojoules per year per square meter of the primitive Earth. As a result of the decay of these long-lived radionuclides, their annual contribution is now only 33.4 kilojoules per square meter.10 This nuclear heat, however, plays a minor role among the terrestrial factors, in comparison with the “greenhouse effects” caused by absorption by some atmospheric gases of the solar radiation reflected from the surface of the Earth. Without the greenhouse effect, the average near-surface air temperature would be –18°C, and not +15°C, as it is now. The most impor- tant among these “greenhouse gases” is water vapor, which is responsible for about 96 to 99 percent of the greenhouse effect. Among the other greenhouse gases (CO2 , CH4 , CFCs, N2O, and O3 ), the most important is CO2 , which contributes only 3 percent to the total greenhouse effect.11, 12 The manmade CO2 contribution to this effect may be about 0.05 to 0.25 percent.13.

Warming is natural

Idso, Carter and Singer 2011 [Craig D. Ph.D Chairman for the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Robert M. Ph.D Adjunct Research Fellow James Cook University, S. Fred Ph.D President of Science and Environmental Policy Project, Climate Change Reconsidered 2011 Interim Report” Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change

New evidence points to a larger role for solar forcing than the IPCC has acknowledged. Likely mechanisms include perturbation of ocean currents, tropospheric zonal mean-winds, and the intensity of cosmic rays reaching the Earth.  The IPCC underestimated the warming effect of chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) prior to their gradual removal from the atmosphere following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol in 2000. This could mean CO2 concentrations played a smaller role in the warming prior to that year, and could help explain the global cooling trend since 2000. Other forcings and feedbacks about which little is known (or acknowledged by the IPCC) include stratospheric water vapor, volcanic and seismic activity, and enhanced carbon sequestration.

Climate change isn’t anthropogenic—it’s a result of natural cycles

Betke ’13 (Art Betke, Staff Writer at The Prince George Citizen, April 16, 2013)

Thomas Cheney (letter, March 4 issue) challenged me to provide a coherent alternative theory for global warming. I'm happy to oblige. (Bracketed numbers refer to online citations.) In 1984 the Dansgaard-Oeschger temperature cycle (1,500-plus years) which could not be caused by any terrestrial agent was noticed. Cycle shifts were abrupt, sometimes gaining half of their change in only a decade. (1)¶ Dozens of papers confirmed this cycle (at 1470-plus years) and determined it must have a solar cause. (2, 3, 4, 5)¶ But there is no 1,470 year solar cycle. There are, however, the 87-year Gleisberg and 210-year DeVries-Suess cycles of sunspot activity. Seven of the 210 year cycles and 17 of the 87 year cycles operating together produce an erratic 1,470-year solar cycle. (6)¶ How could sunspots affect our climate? Henrik Svensmark postulated that sunspots are associated with the suns magnetic field and it, together with solar flares, modulates galactic cosmic ray input to the atmosphere which may cause variations in the nucleation of low level clouds, affecting their reflectivity. (7)¶ Incontrovertible evidence of a link between cosmic rays and terrestrial temperature variability was discovered in 2001. (8)¶ In August, 2011 CERN released results of its first study, confirming the theory. (9)¶ Evidence of the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle has been found going back a million years and accounts for the climate variations of the past 2,000 years including the Roman Warming, the Dark Ages cooling, the Medieval Climate Optimum, the Little Ice Age, and now the modern warming.Projected forward this pattern suggests we are about 160 years into the next warming phase with a few centuries to go which will be followed by several centuries of cooling.¶ In 2003, Russian scientists Klyashtorin and Lyubishin identified a recurring 60-year cycle of warming and cooling (most likely related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) superimposed on Dansgaard-Oeschger, subsequently confirmed by other studies. (10, 11, 12)¶ This cycle accounts for the warming and cooling pattern of the last 150 years of temperature records including cooling 1882 to 1910, warming 1910 to 1944, cooling 1944 to 1975, and warming 1975 to 2001.Projected forward, this suggests we are on the cusp of a slight 30-year cooling after which the warming will resume.¶ The studies briefly described here account for all past as well as current climate changes either of which the anthropogenic CO2 hypothesis absolutely cannot do.

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