Econ collapse creates a mindset shift towards small local civilizations – this solves the environment and war globally
Lewis 2K Chris H. Lewis, Ph.D. University of Colorado at Boulder (Chris H, “The Coming Age of Scarcity: Preventing Mass Death and Genocide in the Twenty-First Century” p.44 – p.45)//Roetlin
With the collapse of global industrial civilization, smaller,autonomous, localand regionalcivilizations, cultures, and politieswill emerge.We can reduce the threat of mass death and genocide that will surely accompany this collapse by encouraging the creation and growth of sustainable, self-sufficient regional polities. John Cobb has already made a case for how this may work in the United States and how it is working in Kerala, India.After the collapse of global industrial civilization, First and Third Worldpeoples won't have the material resources, biological capital, and energy and human resources to re-establish global industrial civilization.Forced by economic necessity to become dependent on local resources and ecosystems for their survival,peoples throughout the world will work to conserve and restore their environments.Those societies that destroy their local environments and economies, as modern people so often do, will themselves face collapse and ruin.
Without a radical change in our societal foundation the affirmative will never be able to solve – consumer-capitalist society does not allow for a sustainable future – the only chance for solvency is dedevelopment – turns case
Trainer, ’07 - Senior Lecturer in Sociology, School of Social Work, University of New South Wale (Ted, “Renewable Energy: No Solution for Consumer Society”, Inclusive Democracy, http://www.inclusivedemocracy.org/journal/vol3/vol3_no1_Trainer_renewable_energy.htm#_edn3)//Roetlin
Consumer-capitalist society is also grossly unjust, imposing a global market system which delivers most of the world’s wealth to the corporations and consumers of the rich countries. A market economy inevitably gears the productive capacity of the Third World to the effective demand of the rich and cannot attend to the needs of people, society or future generations. Again it is obvious that Third World problems cannot be solved until the rich countries stop taking most of the world’s resource wealth; as Gandhi said long ago, “The rich must live more simply so that the poor may simply live.” That is not possible in a society committed to affluence and growth. Thus considerations of sustainability and of justice both lead to the conclusion that the problems cannot be solved without huge and radical systemic change. In my view the core factor determining the trajectory of Western society in the past hundred years and in the near future is resource scarcity. Consumer society flared after 1945 on abundant cheap oil. We are now probably at the peak of oil availability and headed for rapid decline, which probably means catastrophic breakdown. Some believe 3 billion are likely to die off in coming decades. (See www.dieoff.com) About 480 million are fed by food irrigated by petrol engines. Thus, thinking about alternative ways must focus on this scarcity factor. It has powerful implications for many classic sociological and philosophical debates. For instance, it means that a good society cannot be an affluent society. Marxists as much as free-marketers have been mistaken about this. It means that globalization is over. It means that industrialization is not the future (… indeed the dominant mode of production will probably be craft.) It means that viable settlements in an era of scarcity must be run on anarchist principles; they will not be able to meet their needs from local resources via systems they have to run for themselves unless they are highly participatory and equalitarian. 4. The answer? The only way out of this alarming and rapidly deteriorating situation is to move to some kind of Simpler Way[6], which Chapter 11 of Renewable Energy discusses at length. This must involve non-affluent (but quite sufficient) material living standards, mostly small, highly self-sufficient local economies. Economic systems under social control and not driven by market forces or the profit motive and highly cooperative and participatory systems. Obviously, such radical systemic changes could not be made without profound change in values and world view, away from some of the most fundamental elements in Western culture, especially to do with competitive, acquisitive individualism. There are good reasons for thinking that we have neither the wit nor the will to face up to changes of this order, especially given that they are not on the agenda of official or public discussion. A major factor that has kept them off the agenda has been the strength of the assumption all wish to believe, that renewable energy sources can substitute for fossil fuels and therefore can sustain consumer-capitalist society.
Dedev is the only chance for solvency – we live in a growth-economy not an economy with growth
Trainer, ’11 - Senior Lecturer in Sociology, School of Social Work, University of New South Wale (Ted, “The Radical Implications of a Zero-Growth Economy”, Real World Economics Review, http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue57/Trainer57.pdf)//Roetlin
For 50 years literature has been accumulating pointing out the contradiction between the pursuit of economic growth and ecological sustainability, although this has had negligible impact on economic theory or practice. A few, notably Herman Daly (2008), have continuedto attempt to get the notion of a steady-state economy onto the agenda but it has only been in the last few years that discussion has begun to gain momentum. Jackson’s Prosperity Without Growth (200) has been widely recognised, there is now a substantial European “De-growth” movement(Latouche, 2007), and CASSE (2010) has emerged. The argument in this paper is that the implications of a steady-state economy have not been understood at all well, especially by its advocates. Most proceed as if we can and should eliminate the growth element of the present economy while leaving the rest more or less as it is. It will be argued firstly that this is not possible, because this is not an economy which has growth; it is a growth-economy, a system in which most of the core structures and processes involve growth.If growth is eliminated then radically different ways of carrying out many fundamental processes will have to be found. Secondly, the critics of growth typically proceed as if it is the only or the primary or the sufficient thing that has to be fixed, but it will be argued that the major global problems facing us cannot be solved unless several fundamental systems and structures within consumer-capitalist society are radically remade. What is required is much greater social change than Western society has undergone in several hundred years. Before offering support for these claims it is important to sketch the general “limits to growth” situation confronting us. The magnitude and seriousness of the global resource and environmental problem is not generally appreciated. Only when this is grasped is it possible to understand that the social changes required must be huge, radical and far reaching. The initial claim being argued here (and detailed in Trainer 2010b) is that consumer-capitalist society cannot be reformed or fixed; it has to be largely scrapped and remade along quite different lines.
2NC Mindset Shift
Mindset shift works
Göpel 4/28 - Maja Göpel heads the Berlin office of the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy. Her research focuses on system transformations and new prosperity models. Preceding this post she helped start up the World Future Council and later directed its Future Justice program with a focus on the representation of future generations and long-termism in current governance structures. Maja has a PhD in political economy and diploma in media/communications, she lectures at universities and enjoys working in international networks. (2014, Maja, Postwachstum, “Getting to Postgrowth: The Transformative Power of Mind- and Paradigm Shifts”, http://blog.postwachstum.de/getting-to-postgrowth-the-transformative-power-of-mind-and-paradigm-shifts-20140428 // SM)
Before an individual chooses to act, he or she requires astory or mindset to make sense of what the situation is about. Acting rationally in this sense means to act with reason, in congruence with one’s worldview and the individual interpretation of the “rules of the game.” Individual mindsets, however, are not fixed when we are born, but the result of learning and socialization processes in which the collective imaginary and narratives about life, society and desirable futures provide the reference framework. So what happens if this reference framework becomes unconvincing or even unbelievable – as it seems to be the case with the narrative of continuous economic growth? It causes a lot of confusion, mistrust, politicization, fear and – opportunity for change. The latter is what the postgrowth, de-growth and beyond GDP movement is aiming at, as well asbig sections of the emerging sustainability transformation research community and groups calling for strong sustainability. I want to highlight that the overarching stories and rationales for change, as well as the values, principles and rules for its realization n, are very aligned. What we see emerging qualifies for a paradigm shift cutting across theory and practice which is a high leverage point for system transformations. The term “paradigm shift” originates from the philosophy of science and usually references Thomas Kuhn as the original thinker in this context. In scientific terms, paradigms comprise assumptions that are epistemological (what we can know), ontological (what can be said to exist and how we group it) and methodological (which guideline framework for solving a problem is suitable). In the context of worldviews, many add axiological aspects (which values are adopted). Depending on how these are defined, one and the same event will be interpreted very differently. Kuhn also observed that usually several paradigms exist, but only one seems to become dominant – as it was the case with mainstream economics over the last 200 years.
Göpel 4/28 - Maja Göpel heads the Berlin office of the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy. Her research focuses on system transformations and new prosperity models. Preceding this post she helped start up the World Future Council and later directed its Future Justice program with a focus on the representation of future generations and long-termism in current governance structures. Maja has a PhD in political economy and diploma in media/communications, she lectures at universities and enjoys working in international networks. (2014, Maja, Postwachstum, “Getting to Postgrowth: The Transformative Power of Mind- and Paradigm Shifts”, http://blog.postwachstum.de/getting-to-postgrowth-the-transformative-power-of-mind-and-paradigm-shifts-20140428 // SM)
The world now had 20 years to observe the empirical consequences of these mathematical stunts, and the call for a paradigm shift or (great) transformations has become standard in the discourse around the post2015 development agenda, the emerging Sustainable Development Goals or the new IPCC assessment report: a renewed opportunity for deep structural change. System transformation researchers like those at the Nesta Foundation in the UK brought forward a list of five “main ingredients” for successful transformation: Failures and frustrations with the current system multiply as negative consequences become increasingly visible. The landscape in which the regime operates shifts as new long-term trends emerge or sudden events drastically impact the general availability or persuasiveness of particular solutions. Niche alternatives start to develop and gain momentum; coalitions emerge that coalesce around the principles of a new approach. New technologies are energizing the upcoming alternative solutions either in the form of alternative products or opportunities for communication and connection. In order to achieve far-reaching regime changes, dissents and fissures within the regime itself are key, rather than small adaptations and co-optation into the old regime.[3] A core element in this sequence is the “new approach” mentioned in point 3. Just as paradigms and hegemonic mindsets have a hampering effect on alternative proposals, the challenging of these paradigms and their crisis equally holds the emancipatory power for system transformations. While many argue that, with regard to the development story of economic growth, such alternatives are still dispersed happenings and nowhere near providing a consistent approach, I think we are at a tipping point. A first superficial review of a few movements shows a lot of commonalities between the core principles of, for example, the “Economy for the Common Good“[4], the “Transition Town movement”[5], and the Commoning movement[6], or the international efforts to measure a new development paradigm led by Bhutan with its Gross National Happiness approach[7] . Cross-cutting ideas and rationales juxtaposed to the mainstream economic ones are: A holistic understanding of human needs and prosperity beyond consumptionEquitable and balanced progress of the whole socio-ecological system A vision of sufficiency providing freedom from fear of falling behind in the race for more wealth and freedom from constantly created shopping-wants that impede wellbeing Growth in creativity, capacities, time wealth and conviviality (process utility) in co-creative relationships A culture of respect, precaution and caring for what is already thereShedding old paradigms and imaginaries of life, society and desirable futures usually goes alongside crises in the “real” world. We are looking at a rocky ride ahead, but the more clarity we have about where we want to get and how it can be done, the better we can coordinate. This leaves me to finish with Milton Friedman: “Only a crisis-actual or perceived-produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable.”