Florida commission on hurricane loss projection methodology
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- Report of Activities as of November 1, 2015
- LOSS PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
- Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology P. O. Box 13300 Tallahassee, Florida 32317-3300
- Statistics Expert, Florida State University Floyd Yager, FCAS, Vice Chair Actuary, Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Advisory Council
- Professional Team Members: Staff Members
- Table of Contents PAGE
- Table of Contents PAGE
                                                                  Report of Activities
as of November 1, 2015 
Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology FLORIDA COMMISSION ON HURRICANE LOSS PROJECTION METHODOLOGY Post Office Box 13300, 32317-3300 1801 Hermitage Boulevard, Suite 100 Tallahassee, Florida 32308 (850) 413-1349 www.sbafla.com/methodology Patricia Born, Ph.D. Lorilee Medders, Ph.D., Chair Minchong Mao, FCAS, MAAA, CPCU Insurance Finance Expert, Statistics Expert, Actuary, Florida State University Florida State University Property and Casualty Industry Barry Gilway Floyd Yager, FCAS, Vice Chair Forrest Masters, Ph.D. President/CEO & Executive Director, Actuary, Professional Structural Engineer, Citizens Property Insurance Corporation Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Advisory Council University of Florida
Insurance Consumer Advocate, Computer Systems Design Expert, Florida Department of Financial Services Florida International University Bryan Koon Jack Nicholson, Ph.D. Director, Chief Operating Officer, Florida Division of Emergency Management Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Robert Lee, FCAS Hugh Willoughby, Ph.D. Actuary, Meteorology Expert, Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Florida International University
November 1, 2015 The Honorable Rick Scott, Chairman Governor
Plaza Level 02, The Capitol Tallahassee, Florida 32399 The Honorable Pam Bondi, Secretary Attorney General Plaza Level 01, The Capitol Tallahassee, Florida 32399 The Honorable Jeff Atwater, Treasurer Chief Financial Officer Plaza Level 11, The Capitol Tallahassee, Florida 32399 Dear Trustees: As Chair of the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (Commission), I am pleased to present to you the Report of Activities as of November 1, 2015. This report documents the twentieth year of the Commission’s work. Section 627.0628, F.S., created the Commission as a panel of experts to be administratively housed in the State Board of Administration but requires the Commission to independently exercise its power and duties. The Commission is required to “…adopt revisions to previously adopted actuarial methods, principles, standards, models, or output ranges every odd-numbered year.” Such revisions were made in compliance with the statute. If you have any questions or comments regarding the work of the Commission, please call me at (850) 645-8393. Sincerely, 
Lorilee Medders, Chair Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology P. O. Box 13300 Tallahassee, Florida 32317-3300 Staff: 850-413-1349, Fax: 850-413-1344 Website: www.sbafla.com/methodology Commission Members: Lorilee Medders, Ph.D., Chair Statistics Expert, Florida State University Floyd Yager, FCAS, Vice Chair Actuary, Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Advisory Council Patricia Born, Ph.D. Minchong Mao, FCAS, MAAA, CPCU Insurance Finance Expert, Actuary, Florida State University Property and Casualty Industry
President/CEO & Executive Director, Professional Structural Engineer, Citizens Property Insurance Corporation University of Florida
Insurance Consumer Advocate, Computer Systems Design Expert, Florida Department of Financial Services Florida International University
Director, Chief Operating Officer, Florida Division of Emergency Management Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund
Actuary, Meteorology Expert, Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Florida International University
Jenni Evans, Ph.D., Meteorologist Leonard Schulte Paul Fishwick, Ph.D., Computer/Information Scientist Donna Sirmons Tim Hall, Ph.D., Meteorologist Ramona Worley Mark Johnson, Ph.D., Statistician, Team Leader Chris Jones, P.E., Coastal Engineer Greg McLellan, P.E., Structural Engineer Chris Nachtsheim, Ph.D., Statistician Richard Nance, Ph.D., Computer/Information Scientist Del Schwalls, P.E., CFM, Hydrologist Michael Smith, FCAS, MAAA, Actuary Zhida Song-James, Ph.D., PH, CFM, Hydrologist Masoud Zadeh, Ph.D., P.E., Structural Engineer
4. General Standards 86 G-1 Scope of the Model and Its Implementation 86 G-2 Qualifications of Modeling Organization Personnel and 90 Consultants Engaged in Development of the Model G-3 Insured Exposure Location 93 G-4 Independence of Model Components 95 G-5 Editorial Compliance 96 Form G-1 General Standards Expert Certification 98 Form G-2 Meteorological Standards Expert Certification 99 Form G-3 Statistical Standards Expert Certification 100 Form G-4 Vulnerability Standards Expert Certification 101 Form G-5 Actuarial Standards Expert Certification 102 Form G-6 Computer/Information Standards Expert Certification 103 Form G-7 Editorial Review Expert Certification 104 5. Meteorological Standards 105 M-1 Base Hurricane Storm Set 105 M-2 Hurricane Parameters and Characteristics 107 M-3 Hurricane Probabilities 109 M-4 Hurricane Windfield Structure 111 M-5 Landfall and Over-Land Weakening Methodologies 114 M-6 Logical Relationships of Hurricane Characteristics 115 Form M-1 Annual Occurrence Rates 116 Form M-2 Maps of Maximum Winds 120 Form M-3 Radius of Maximum Winds and Radii of Standard Wind 121 Thresholds
6. Statistical Standards 122 S-1 Modeled Results and Goodness-of-Fit 122 S-2 Sensitivity Analysis for Model Output 124 S-3 Uncertainty Analysis for Model Output 126 S-4 County Level Aggregation 128 S-5 Replication of Known Hurricane Losses 129 S-6 Comparison of Projected Hurricane Loss Costs 131 Form S-1 Probability and Frequency of Florida Landfalling Hurricanes 132 per Year Form S-2 Examples of Loss Exceedance Estimates 133 Form S-3 Distributions of Stochastic Hurricane Parameters 134 Form S-4 Validation Comparisons 135 Form S-5 Average Annual Zero Deductible Statewide Loss Costs – 137 Historical versus Modeled Form S-6 Hypothetical Events for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis 138 7. Vulnerability Standards 151 V-1 Derivation of Building Vulnerability Functions 151 V-2 Derivation of Contents and Time Element Vulnerability Functions 155 V-3 Mitigation Measures 158 Form V-1 One Hypothetical Event 161 Form V-2 Mitigation Measures, Range of Changes in Damage 164 Form V-3 Mitigation Measures, Mean Damage Ratios and Loss Costs 167 (Trade Secret item) 8. Actuarial Standards 170 A-1 Modeling Input Data and Output Reports 170 A-2 Event Definition 172 A-3 Coverages 173 A-4 Modeled Loss Cost and Probable Maximum Loss Considerations 174 A-5 Policy Conditions 176 A-6 Loss Outputs and Logical Relationships to Risk 178 Form A-1 Zero Deductible Personal Residential Loss Costs by ZIP Code 182 Form A-2 Base Hurricane Storm Set Statewide Losses 184 Form A-3 2004 Hurricane Season Losses 187 Form A-4 Output Ranges 188 Form A-5 Percentage Change in Output Ranges 192 Form A-6 Logical Relationship to Risk (Trade Secret item) 194 Form A-7 Percentage Change in Logical Relationship to Risk 197 Form A-8 Probable Maximum Loss for Florida 198
9. Computer/Information Standards 202 CI-1 Documentation 202 CI-2 Requirements 204 CI-3 Model Architecture and Component Design 206 CI-4 Implementation 207 CI-5 Verification 209 CI-6 Model Maintenance and Revision 211 CI-7 Security 213 10. Working Definitions of Terms Used in the Report of Activities 214 11. References 233
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