Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010 Pointer/Gordon/Watts/Samuels Turkey Neg


Turkey-Russo Relations Good (Pipelines)



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Turkey-Russo Relations Good (Pipelines)


A. Turkey-Russian relations are the foundation of pipelines and stability in the Caucuses

Bhadrakumar 10, M K, Asia Times Coordinator and Staff Writer, Central Asian segment, May 15, 2010, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/LE15Ag01.html)

However, an historic breakthrough in Russia's ties with Turkey does not quite fall into this category. A tempo has been steadily building up over the past two decades for Russian-Turkish relations to develop into a strategic partnership between the two rivals who constantly jostled or even fought bloody wars against each other through centuries. Their post-Cold War "reset" - as much at Ankara's initiative as Moscow's - in actuality by far predates the Obama era, and is based on well-thought-out foundations of hardcore mutual interests. Medvedev's visit to Ankara this week has cemented this phenomenal transformation in the ties and launches it onto a far higher trajectory. A relationship that was heavily based on economic interests so far is rapidly acquiring political content. As Medvedev pointed out on Wednesday, "Russia and Turkey are strategic partners, not only in words but genuinely." Russia already meets close to 70% of Turkey's energy needs, and the established cooperation is also expected to grow. The two countries are discussing Russia's possible involvement in the north-south 550-kilometer oil pipeline to connect the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean, which was envisaged as a Turkish-Italian project. In effect, Russia is helping Turkey realize its ambition to become a global hub for energy transportation, while Moscow expects Ankara not to promote pipeline projects that rival Russia's. The two countries are inching closer to cooperation in the Moscow-backed South Stream gas pipeline project that binds the south European markets to Russia's energy sources. In geopolitical terms, among other things, Turkey is playing a role in facilitating the return of Russia to its Slavic backyard in the Balkans from where it was rudely evicted in the 1990s with the West's dismantling of the former state of Yugoslavia, as well as in buttressing Russia's lead role in supplying energy to Europe. The developing Russia-Turkish coordination of positions over the South Caucasus aims at creating a regional security system. Arguably, the process is also subject to the US's acceptance and the climate of a US-Russia "reset" will have a bearing. As a Turkish report pointed out, "Azerbaijan is leaning toward Turkey, Armenia has embraced Russia, and Georgia has been seeking rapprochement with NATO and the US. When these countries lean (or are prodded) toward different supports, it usually ends badly, as proved by the August 2008 war between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia." 


B. Caucus stabilty key to preventing further Ossetia invasions and preventing war in Chechnya

Peut 5, (Jean-Christophe, Caucasus/Central Asia: Analysts Expect Security, Economic Gains From BTC Pipeline, http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1058989.html)

The leaders of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, and Kazakhstan gathered near Baku today to inaugurate the $4 billion Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. The project is generally viewed as the key element of an overall plan to turn the Caucasus region into a transport corridor connecting Central Asia to Western Europe. But regional experts say that by helping make the region safer, the project's expected economic benefits might eventually outweigh its geostrategic importance. [For coverage of the ceremony, see "Caspian-Mediterranean Oil Pipeline Launched In Baku".] I believe that the idea of regional security is what prevails here," Tvalchrelidze said. "Had this pipeline been under construction in the years 1991 to 1992, for example, Georgia would never have gone into trouble with [its separatist republics] of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The reactions of the world community to these conflicts would have been totally different -- maybe even similar to that we've seen [recently] in Iraq." Tvalchrelidze also said he believes BTC might even have a positive impact of the war in Chechnya, since the pipeline could help cut many potential channels of oil contraband -- one of the main sources of revenues for both Russian army generals and Chechen fighters.



Turkey-Russo Relations Good (Pipelines Extension)


Pipelines in the Caucuses are key to stopping the Karabakh conflict and assisting millions of refugees, leeches that are impairing the Caucuses’ stability

Azerbaijan News 10, (Azerbaijan key for South Caucasus energy stability Sat 05 June 2010 | 07:03 GMT http://www.news.az/articles/16946)

Emphasizing regional security in the South Caucasus, Veliyev said mediation for the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave was essential for securing the energy supply in the region and to Europe.
Veliev warned of instability and a “polarized South Caucasus,” citing over 1 million refugees from the Karabakh conflict and an influx of radicals from Asia and the Northern Caucasus trying to settle in Azerbaijan. He also lamented the lack of acceptance of the Madrid principle by Armenia, which he said would be a step toward solving the conflict.
Creation of Russo-Turkish pipelines are key to Abhkazi peace talks

Aparanjedze and Welt 4, (George and Cory, A Georgian-Russian Pipeline: For Peace or Profit?, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/eav030904.shtml)

The proposal, however, contains one obvious obstacle: securing a pact that determines Abkhazia's political status. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Talks are currently at an impasse. Despite the public expressions of good will that surrounded Saakashvili's February 10-12 visit to Moscow, Russia and Georgia have been unable for more than a decade to find consensus on the Abkhazia question. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition, Abkhaz leaders have shown no willingness to accept Georgia's current offer of broad autonomy within the Georgian state. In UN-hosted talks with Georgian representatives last month -- the first in three years -- Abkhazia maintained its demands for full independence. Abkhazia also refused to take part with Georgia in peace talks sponsored by Britain, Germany, Russia and the United States last month in Geneva. For Moscow, the timing may be right for both Abkhaz peace and a pipeline. Russia has taken a dim view of growing US influence in Georgia.


-----Politics-----


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