Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010 Pointer/Gordon/Watts/Samuels Turkey Neg

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Caucasus Spillover (Extension)

Caucasus needs international community to prevent escalation to major conflicts

Blank 2000 (Stephen, professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. American Grand Strategy and the Transcaspian Region, “U.S. Military Engagement with Transcaucasia and Central Asia,” World Affairs) MJ

More specifically, the Transcaspian has become, perhaps, the most important area of direct Western- Russian contention today. Those areas of contention with Russia embrace economic issues such as energy routes and pipelines, as well as classical issues of security, territorial integrity of states, and defense. They also overlay the ethnic fractures and tendencies towards conflict throughout the region. A study by Terence Hopmann of Brown University, based on interviews with regional specialists in these states and Russia, concluded that, However, it is in the Caucasus, where ethno-political separatism reflecting in part the long history of collisions of ancient civilizations, where the greatest threats to military security are likely to develop over the next ten years. If the fractured identities within this region are reinforced by the intervention of outside parties, such as Turkey, Iran, Russia, and Western Europe, the threats to security of the region and even of the world could become quite serious. The greatest dangers are likely to be a consequence of conflicts of identity in a region where states are weak and national identities are being rediscovered or even created. The continuing crises of the economy, environment, and politics may exacerbate these underlying conflicts, even if they are not the primary cause. Concerted diplomatic efforts within the region and by the entire international community may be necessary to avert such a tragedy.23

Escalation of violence in Caucasus likely-full of overhyped media

Blank 2000 (Stephen, professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. American Grand Strategy and the Transcaspian Region, “U.S. Military Engagement with Transcaucasia and Central Asia,” World Affairs) MJ

The absence of effective control over armed forces both abets and reflects the widespread regional ethnic conflicts, the fourth structural factor of instability. The North Caucasus and Transcaucasia are saturated with scholarly, pseudo-scholarly, crackpot, chauvinist, and ethnographic theories masquerading as scholarship which are consciously used for nationalistic incitement and the creation of nationalist “militias” as in Nagorno-Karabakh. 61 Local media are also saturated by the mentality of zero-sum conflict, ethnic suspicion, and propaganda, and are universally regarded as state instruments for political indoctrination. Not surprisingly, ethnic tension is pervasive. The growing restiveness and rising incidence of political violence in the North Caucasus which could develop into full-fledged organized ethnic violence likewise is not surprising.62 In April 1997, renewed fighting also broke out in the war over Nagorno-Karabakh. And in mid-1998 Georgian irregulars seeking to force their way back into Abkhazia triggered conflicts that only led to Abkhazian victories and more Georgian refugees. A few months later there was a mutiny or coup attempt from within the Georgian Army. In February 1998 the Karabakh faction of the Armenian government launched a coup that unseated the government. The issue that prompted the coup was the government’s willingness to accept a less nationalistic negotiated solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh war than the Karabakhites would have preferred.

NATO Good-Security

NATO good-largest network of security

Martonyi 99 (Janos, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Hungary, “TEXT: HUNGARY'S FOREIGN MINISTER ON NATO ENTRY, MARCH 12,” USIS Washington File, http://www.fas.org/man/nato/national/99031208_tpo.htm) MJ

"NATO enlargement is not a zero-sum game, but part of a prudent strategy benefiting all nations of Europe, all members of the Atlantic Community," Hungary's Minister of Foreign Affairs Janos Martonyi said March 12 during the accession ceremony at the Truman Library. NATO is "the largest network of security that history has ever known" and by joining the alliance, Hungary is demonstrating that it wants "not to win but to prevent wars," the Foreign Minister said. "Hungary is now a genuine and stable democracy" and is ready to enjoy the advantages of NATO membership and to meet its obligations, Minister Martonyi said. Accession into NATO will return Hungary to its "manifest destiny" which is to rejoin those with whom it shares "the same values, interests and goals," he said. Martonyi also noted that "it is a matter of vital importance that other states of the region remain committed to joining NATO," and that Hungary will support them in their aspirations.
NATO maintains unity, security and freedom
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) enters the second decade of the twenty-first century as an essential source of stability in an uncertain and unpredictable world. Looking ahead, the Alliance has ample grounds for confidence. The democratic principles that initially brought it together remain valid. The Cold War rivalry that once stirred fears of nuclear Armageddon has long since disappeared. NATO’s role in maintaining the unity, security and freedom ofthe Euro-Atlantic region is ongoing. lts status as the globe’s most successful political-military Alliance is unchallenged. Yet NATO’s past accomplishments provide no guarantee for the future. Between now and 2020, it will be tested by the emergence of new dangers, the many-sided demands of complex operations, and the challenge of organising itself efficiently in an era where rapid responses are vital, versatility critical, and resources tight

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