Iran doesn’t have enough to make nukes now but they’re close
Laurence Norman 19, WSJ writer on foreign policy in Brussels, 7-1-2019, "How Close Is Iran to Developing Its Own Nuclear Weapons?," No Publication, https://search-proquest-com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/docview/2250421438?pq-origsite=summon&accountid=14667//HM
Iran announced Monday it had breached one of the key limits in the 2015 nuclear agreement by stockpiling more than 300 kilograms of enriched uranium. Is this step serious? Iran's decision is its first clear, intentional violation of the accord. But for now, it is only a small step toward having enough fuel for a nuclear weapon. Before the 2015 agreement, Iran had amassed 11,560 kilograms of low-purity uranium. The 300-kilogram cap was imposed to ensure it would take Iran many months to rebuild its stockpile to worrying levels. What would Iran need to do to grow its stockpile of uranium to a dangerous level? The 2015 deal was structured to make sure that Iran would take a year to amass enough material for a weapon if it chose to break the accord. It would need to deploy thousands of additional centrifuges to produce the highly enriched uranium used in weapons. Iran's current stockpile of enriched uranium has a purity level of 3.67%, whereas weapons-grade material has a purity level of 90%. Does Iran have the equipment needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium to fuel a viable weapon? Iran has previously produced uranium enriched to 20%. Experts say once you can produce nuclear fuel of that purity, it is relatively straightforward to make weapons-grade material. Iran had up to 20,000 centrifuges but placed two-thirds of those in storage under the terms of the nuclear deal. While most of the machines are of a basic design, they could be redeployed quite quickly. This would be another serious breach of the agreement. Could Iran produce a nuclear weapon? This is the least certain aspect of Iran's nuclear program. Iran did extensive work before 2003 on nuclear weapons and there is evidence it has continued some work since then, according to the United Nations atomic agency. However, it is believed there are key aspects of making a weapon Iran hasn't fully mastered. Even nuclear experts skeptical of the 2015 agreement believe it would take Iran at least a year to actually produce a weapon. Others say it would take longer. Does Iran have other options for producing a nuclear weapon? Iran was building a heavy-water reactor before the deal was reached that would have produced enough plutonium for two weapons a year. However, Iran agreed to remove the core of the reactor and fill it with concrete. It has since threatened to resume construction, but experts say it would take at least a couple of years for Tehran to complete the reactor.