In discussions on migration, a basic distinction is often made between ‘voluntary’ and ‘forced’

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Asylum and Refugee Studies Today
Assignment #11 (Group) Draft research proposal (PART 1)

Pacific Islands
There are 22 political entities (independent countries and various types of colonial territories) in the Pacific region with a wide range of demographic features including population sizes and densities, age structures, rates of urbanisation and population growth (SPC, 2014) (see Table 34.1). As noted earlier, Pacific countries also have had variable migration histories
(Hau’ofa 1993). In the early twenty-first century, the inhabitants of a number of Pacific Island countries have free or relatively open access to metropolitan countries, such as New Zealand and the United States, while others have much more limited options for international migration
(Burson and Bedford 2013). Actually, several countries in the region have very large diasporas in relation to their resident populations.
Generally, Pacific Islands are exposed to a number of negative effects of climate change resulting from increasing sea levels and increasing ocean acidification and sea-surface warming (all of which are likely to contribute to increasing coastal erosion and inundation. In addition, further effects are increasing intensity of tropical cyclones, changes in rainfall including both flooding and droughts) and impacts on human health as a result of these factors (Barnett and Campbell 2010). Following Hugo (2011), a number of Pacific locations can be identified as likely climate change migration hot spots, especially atolls and coastal locations. Urban atolls in the region (South Tarawa (Kiribati, Ebeye and Majuro (Marshall Islands) and Funafuti (Tuvalu) are very densely populated and are already experiencing considerable environmental degradation. In addition, all but a few urban areas are located on the coast and are also likely to struggle to support their populations undercurrent climate change scenarios. Another hot spot is the interior highlands region of Papua New Guinea, which is subject to extreme frosts and droughts associated with El Niño conditions. This is the most heavily and densely populated part of the country and previous extreme events have seen food rationed to over a million people, partly to discourage heavy rates of urban migration but mainly out of need.

Climate change and migration
307
Table 34.1 Summary population statistics of Pacific Island countries
Region/country
Population Estimates
Population increase
2013–50 (%)
Crude population density
(persons/km
2
)
2013
2050
2013
2050
Melanesia
9,392,000 17,418,800 85.5 17.4 Fiji Islands 1,026,700 19.5 46.9 New Caledonia 343,200 32.5 13.9 18.5
Papua New Guinea
7,398,500 14,212,300 92.1 16.0 Solomon Islands 1,353,700 121.6 21.8 Vanuatu 483,000 82.5 21.6 Micronesia 711,500 35.5 166.3 Federated States of Micronesia 97,300
−5.5 146.9 Guam 233,500 33.5 323.3 Kiribati 208,000 91.2 134.2 Marshall Islands 70,700 30.4 299.4 Nauru 17,100 62.9 500.0 Northern Mariana Is 66,800 19.9 121.9 146.2
Palau
17,800 18,000 1.1 40.1 Polynesia 814,800 25.4 79.9 American Samoa 82,200 45.5 283.9 Cook Islands 16,000 5.3 64.1 French Polynesia 316,900 21.2 74.2 90.0
Niue 1,500 1,300
−13.3 5.8 Samoa 238,200 27.1 63.9 81.2
Tokelau
1,200 900
−25.0 100.0 Tonga 127,200 23.1 137.9 Tuvalu 19,600 79.8 419.2 Wallis and Futuna
12,200 12,300 0.8 85.9 Total 18,945,100 79.3 19.2 34.4
Source: Secretariat of the Pacific Community (2014). This table excludes Pitcairn Island, a British territory with a population of 57 people.

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