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370
International Business
Regardless of industry or whether the company is a manufacturer, a wholesaler,
a retailer, or a service provider, effective demand forecasting helps organizations identify market opportunities, enhance channel relationships,
increase customer satisfaction, reduce inventory investment, eliminate product obsolescence, improve distribution operations, schedule more effi-
cient production, and anticipate future financial and capital requirements.
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Forecasting is an integral part of the decision-making activities of operations management. The need for forecasting is increasing as management attempts to decrease the dependence on chance and becomes more scientific in dealing with its environment. The following are some of the areas affecting the management of operations in an organization in which forecasting plays an important role.
Scheduling. Efficient use of resources requires the scheduling of production, transportation, cash, personnel, and soon. Forecasts of the level
of demand for the product, material labor, financing, or service are an essential input to such scheduling.
Acquiring resources. The lead time for acquiring raw materials,
hiring personnel, or buying machinery and equipment can vary from a few days to several years. Forecasting is required to determine future resource requirements.
Determining resource requirements. All organizations must determine what resources they want to have in the long-term. Such decisions depend on market opportunities, environmental factors and the internal development of financial, human, product and technological resources. These determinations require good forecasts and managers who can interpret the predictions and make appropriate decisions.
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Forecasting is often confused with planning. Planning concerns what the world should look like, while forecasting is about what it will look like.
Exhibit 11.5 provides a summary of these relationships. Planners can use forecasting methods to predict the outcomes for alternative plans. If the forecasted
outcomes are not satisfactory, they can revise the plans and obtain new forecasts, and then repeat the process until the forecasted outcomes are satisfactory. They can then implement and monitor the actual outcomes to use in planning the next period. Although this process might seem obvious,
in practice many organizations revise their forecasts and not their plans,
believing that changing the forecasts will change behavior.
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Forecasting can be used in operations management for both short-term and long-term decisions. For example, predicting the demand fora particular product over the next six months would
be a short-term prediction, whereas predicting the rate of unemployment and how this could affect the demand for labor over the next five years would be a long-term prediction. The
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.............................................................................
Elsevier US
Job code KIB
Chapter: Ch11-H7983 6-12-2006 9:22 p.m.
Page:371
Trimsize:7.25 in in
Fonts used Sabon & Frutiger
Margins:Top:36 pt
Gutter:66 pt
Font Size pt
Text Width PC
Depth:43 Lines
International
Operations Management371
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