Misc Resource Wars Impact
No impact – even if peak oil is true, prices force market corrections and transitions to alternatives
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- Hydrocarbon resources and advanced tech solve oil peak
No impact – even if peak oil is true, prices force market corrections and transitions to alternativesRühl, ’10 - group chief economist; manages BP's global economics team, analyzing the global economy and energy markets; previously, he was at the World Bank where he served as the Bank's chief economist in Russia and Brazil and worked in the Office of the Chief Economist at the EBRD. Earlier, he was an academic economist (Christof, “Price Fluctuations are Likely to Increase”, EuroActiv, 1/29/12, http://www.euractiv.com/de/energie/bp-preisschwankungen-wahrscheinlich-zunehmen/article-175931)//AY Q: But isn't the result the same in terms of economic impact, whether it is peak oil or severely restricted access? A: No, the result is not the same. Because this situation will react to prices and other fuels becoming available, and it will react to low prices and to these barriers coming down again. Physical peak oil, which I have no reason to accept as a valid statement either on theoretical, scientific or ideological grounds, would be insensitive to prices. In fact the whole hypothesis of peak oil – which is that there is a certain amount of oil in the ground, consumed at a certain rate, and then it's finished – does not react to anything. Whereas we believe that whatever can be turned into oil strongly depends on technology and technology depends on prices as well. Therefore there will never be a moment when the world runs out of oil because there will always be a price at which the last drop of oil can clear the market. And you can turn anything into oil into if you are willing to pay the financial and environmental price. It is more likely that demand will peak, which is what we are seeing in Japan and in Europe. And then of course there is another constraint. The human capacity of digging hydrocarbons out of the ground and burning them and turning them into energy seems to be much larger than the atmospheric capacity to absorb the resulting CO2. That is likely to be more of a natural limit than all these peak oil theories combined. Peak oil has been predicted for 150 years. It has never happened, and it will stay this way. Hydrocarbon resources and advanced tech solve oil peakMaugeri, ’12 – One of the world’s foremost experts on oil, gas, and energy; one of the most distinguished top managers of Eni (the giant Italian giant oil&gas, ranked 6th among the largest international oil companies), where he held the positions of Senior Executive Vice President of Strategies and Development for about ten years and eventually Executive Chairman of Polimeri Europa, Eni’s petrochemical branch; well-recognized worldwide for his books and seminal articles about energy, as well as for his part-time activity as a lecturer in some of the most prestigious universities and think-tanks. (Leonardo, “Oil: The Next Revolution THE UNPRECEDENTED UPSURGE OF OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE WORLD”, The Geopolitics of Energy Project, June 2012, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf)//AY NOT RUNNING OUT OF OIL: HOW HYDROCARBON RESOURCES EVOLVE In 2011, the world consumed about 32 billion barrels of oil (crude oil and natural gas liquids), while oil proven reserves were about 1.3 trillion barrels. This means that those reserves should last more than 40 years. However, proven reserves are only a tiny slice of the overall supply of oil our planet hides. On a global scale, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates the remaining conventional oil resources in the earth at about seven trillion to eight trillion barrels, out of eight-to-nine trillion barrels of Original Oil in Place (OOP). Part of this (about one trillion barrels) has already been consumed by humankind. With today’s technology and prices, only part of the OOP can be recovered economically and thus be classified as a proven reserve. The notion of recoverability is crucial to the oil industry. Given its complex nature, a hydrocarbon reservoir will always retain part of the oil and gas it holds, even after very long and intensive exploitation. Fields that no longer produce oil and are considered exhausted still contain ample volumes of hydrocarbons that cannot simply be economically recovered with existing technologies. Today, the worldwide average recovery rate for oil is less than 35 percent of the estimated OOP, which means that less than 35 barrels out of 100 may be harvested. As often occurs with statistics, these figures hide huge disparities. In most major producing countries, particularly those where international oil companies (IOC’s) are not permitted to produce oil, the oil recovery rate is well below 25 percent, because of old technologies, reservoir mismanagement, limited investment, and many other factors. The situation has improved in the last decade, but not significantly. For example, the current leading oil producers report about a 20 percent recovery rate. This group includes the Russian Federation, Iran, Venezuela, Kuwait, and others. Some of these countries have even lower recovery rates, in spite of their long and important history as producers. Consider Iraq. Despite its long history as a producer, the country is largely untapped as far as oil development is concerned, according to the assessment made by the IOC’s awarded redevelopment contracts between 2009 and 2011 (see Section 3). Since production began at the dawn of the twentieth century, only 2,300 wells (both for exploration and production) have been drilled there, compared with about one million in Texas. A large part of the country, the western desert area, is still mainly unexplored. Iraq has never implemented advanced technologies, like 3. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 0.73 Mb. Share with your friends:
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