Nfl 2004 Surprises and Disappointments By James Kruger, Vegas Sports Authority
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- DISAPPOINTING TEAMS OF 2004 Miami Dolphins
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Dallas Cowboys
- SURPRISING TEAMS OF 2004 Jacksonville Jaguars
- Detroit Lions
- Atlanta Falcons
| NFL 2004 Surprises and Disappointments
By James Kruger, Vegas Sports Authority Every year there are surprises and disappointments in the NFL. Not finding a beer vendor before the end of the third quarter has always been one of my biggest disappointments. Making it out of the parking lot into the stadium by the kickoff after a few hours of tailgating has always been my biggest surprises. Enough about me, let’s talk about the teams that are going to divert from their expectations. Always wanting to look for value in teams people expect so much from, let’s start with the negative. DISAPPOINTING TEAMS OF 2004 Miami Dolphins – Dave Wannstedt, the coach on the hot seat so much you could light your Panatela on his trousers, faces the biggest challenge of his career. He has now lost his two main playmakers on offense, Ricky Williams and David Boston, for the season. I don’t think many defensive coordinators are quaking in their cleats over facing Jay Fiedler or A.J. Feeley at quarterback and Travis Minor at running back? (please remember Feeley has only five career starts. He is NOT the Fins’ savior). The Dolphin D is going to be asked to provide an awful lot. They have a very good pass rush with two very good corners, but age is creeping up overall on this unit worse than it did on Potsie and Ralph Malph in Happy Days. Eight defensive starters are 29 or older and some key players, such as DT Tim Bowens, projected to start running out of gas around week 12. Non-conference trips to Cincinnati, Seattle, Denver, and Baltimore help to put the final nail in the Dolphins’ playoff hopes. I’ll give you two to one odds Wannstedt has his resume updated by the first of December. We believe there is no way Miami equals last year’s record and will be very lucky to hit .500 this year. Kansas City Chiefs – Do you wonder what it feels like to be divorced by Cindy Crawford and then come back three years later and marry her sister, who happens to look like Rosie O’Donnell. That is what Gunther Cunningham, the new defensive coordinator for the Chiefs, must be feeling. Gunther, who many people in KC had thought had a screw loose when he was head coach of the Chiefs in the late 90’s, is being asked to be the savior for Kansas City. Moving up to head coach from defensive coordinator in 1999 was the ultimate example of the Peter Principle. Gunther is now in charge of the petticoat chasing #29 ranked defense, one that allowed an abhorrent 5.1 yards per rush last year. It was a surprise when KC drafted a project, DT Junior Siavii from Hawaii, as their top pick. It is a rare day in the NFL when a rookie DT comes in and makes much, if any, of an impact his first year. The Chiefs hopes ride on breakout years from DE Eric Hicks and DT Ryan Sims. Gaining turnovers in the first half of the season last year helped disguise a weak and porous defense better than the Legends in Concert impersonators at the Imperial Palace could do. A lot is being asked of the offense, especially Trent Green remaining healthy to avoid having to use stopgap Todd Collins, who has only attempted 22 passes in the last three years. Also, can anyone expect the “X Factor”, Dante Hall, to win a couple of games with late TD returns? I’ll take a prop bet against that any day. We don’t believe Gunther is going to make a significant difference for the KC D this year. Their draft will go down as one of the worst drafts in KC history. Adding the factor of a difficult schedule, we will be surprised if the Chiefs make the playoffs this year. Dallas Cowboys – America’s Teams’ fans have high expectations this year, even after Quincy Carter’s departure. Drew Henson is the “Great Quarterback Hope” this year. Sure, Grandpa Vinnie is going to start at the helm at the beginning of the season, but surely phenom Drew will be starting by the fifth or sixth game. Call me stupid, but a third baseman for the last three years just doesn’t step into a starting QB position and succeed enough to take a team to the playoffs. That leaves brittle Vinnie Testaverde as the “GQH” (Great Quarterback Hope) behind an offensive line that has potential, but a lot of question marks. Eddie George will be a non-factor with Notre Dame rookie Julius Jones providing the majority of offensive highlights this year for the Cowboys. At most, Eddie will resemble the ghost of Emmitt Smith. A very good secondary and defensive line will keep Dallas in many games. Breakdowns on special teams will probably contribute to a couple of losses this year. As much as we believe in Bill Parcells, it will be a miracle to reproduce last years’ overachievement. Okay, enough about raining on people’s parades, let’s build up some fans’ hopes! SURPRISING TEAMS OF 2004 Jacksonville Jaguars – We never liked Jack Del Rio as a player and we still have our doubts about him as a coach. The Jags were only 5-11 last year SU, but were 7-9 ATS. Also, it has to be remembered Jacksonville started out 1-7 before finishing the last 8 games 4-4 including a win over the Colts. We like the upside of second-year QB Byron Leftwich, to us a surprise in his rookie season. RB Fred Taylor is a back any team would want. This position is greatly improved with second-round draft choice Greg Jones from Florida State. The ninth pick in the draft, WR Reggie Williams from the University of Washington will help people forget aging Jimmy Smith. Most people don’t realize the Jags were #2 in the NFL in rush defense last year and only allowed 3.2 yards per carry. They made some nice upgrades with the signing of free agent LBs Greg Favors from Carolina and Tommy Hendricks from Miami. If aging veteran Hugh Douglas lives up to his promises to have a stellar season, the Jags could be a defensive force this year. Many people overlook the value of special teams, refusing to believe they can really affect more than maybe one decision a year. The Jaguars had one of the worst special teams’ units last year. That can only improve with the expensive hiring of Pete Rodriguez as Special Teams Coach. Return man David Allen is a poor man’s Dante Hall. Vegas Sports Authority looks for Jacksonville to finish at .500 at the worse. Detroit Lions – Obviously, the only way the only way the Detroit Lions can improve is if they have the ability to break a 24 game losing streak on the road. They have the head coach in place with Steve Mariucci. They have a new defensive coordinator, former Bears head coach, Dick Jauron, that we do believe can make a difference. Injuries last year played an important part in the Lion’s poor record last year. The Lions’ two first round draft choices should have an impact on Detroit’s offense this year,WR Roy Williams and RB Kevin Jones. Couple Williams with last year’s top draft choice, Charles Rogers, and Harrington should start showing his true potential with such talented receiving corps. What surprised us last year was that the offensive line only allowed eleven sacks, the best in the NFL. Defense is the main area that needs improvement. The defensive line is respectable, but needs to put more pressure on the QB this year. With injuries not being a factor this year, the defensive backfield should be greatly improved. We don’t see how the linebacking crew is going to show much improvement, but if the DL and DB’s show improvement, it won’t be as much of a factor. We like Harrington in Mariucci’s West Coast Offense with his young offensive weapons. If linebackers Boss Bailey and Teddy Lehman continue improving, this could be a good year to look at Detroit opening up some eyes reaching at least seven victories. Atlanta Falcons – Last year proved the value of a superstar quarterback. Backups led the Falcons to a 2-10 record, Vick came in the last four games and went 3-1. Geez, what would have been with Michael at the helm all year long? Atlanta has a new General Manager, new head coach, new coaching staff, and new philosophies on defense and offense. A significant makeover in the defensive backfield coupled with #1 draft choice DeAngelo Hall will help shore up a soft area from last year. Of course, when your defense finishes last overall in 2003, you only have one direction to go. The coaching staff that comes with the new head honcho, Jim Mora, Jr., is very impressive. It will be interesting to see how much effect a new, good staff will have on an underachieving team. We are banking this prediction on Vick carrying the offense with a noteworthy contribution from Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett. The success of a revamped defensive backfield is also of high importance. We believe a healthy Vick and the coaching changes will make as huge of contribution to winning as the Yankees trading for Babe Ruth did for the Yankees. We hope you enjoyed our predictions of surprising and disappointing teams for 2004. To be accurate in this assessment is key to starting out the season on a winning note for sports bettors. The public’s, and also the linesmaker’s perception, early in the season on the capabilities of a team makes a huge influence on the lines early in the season. Vegas Sports Authority believes it is much easier early in the season to beat the line than once a number of games have been played. James Kruger, along with partner Paul Stone, of Vegas Sports Authority, have experienced exceptional success in the four years of the company’s public handicapping experience garnering numerous awards. James Kruger can be reached at www.vegassportsauthority.com or at 702-630-8400. Download 17.23 Kb. Share with your friends:
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