Figure 4 Running Pearson’s correlations coefficients (100-yr moving window) between AMO and TSI for simulated and reconstructed datasets (a). Running DCCA and DSPCCA coefficients (100-yr moving window) between AMO and TSI for ensemble member (b) L1 (c) L2 (d) (M1) and (e) M2. Following Knudsen et al. (2014) all datasets in (a) were smoothed (11-yr moving window) before calculating the running correlations. The dotted (dashed) lines indicate the correlation coefficient critical values at 90% (95%) significance. See methods section for explanation of legends