agent based modelling
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models based on “interacting agents and what results from the interaction among those agents”
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Byrne (2002: 135)
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a relatively new computational modeling paradigm, is the modeling of phenomena as dynamical systems of interacting agents.
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Castiglione (2006: 1562)
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computer-based (multi-)agent models simulate actions and interactions of individual system agents in order to assess the theory’s combined effects on system configurations and functions
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Glaser et al. (2012)
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agents as “any object whose state can change in response to other system variables”
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Anderies (2002: 19)
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actor analysis
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identifies important cultural actors (persons, institutions and organizations) who have an influence on the future of an organization.
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analyzes their goals and interests.
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recognizes key factors or catalysts for a trend. The identification of a key actor follows by mapping the actors through the coordinates of conflict and cooperation potential.
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RAHS Methodenliste
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application
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Application Software: Computer software designed to help the user to perform specific tasks
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Fundamentals of Computer Systems (2013)
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backcasting
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describes in hindsight how to reach an ideal, normative future.
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Turning around the causal logic working from the future to the past sharpens the understanding of the dynamic change of basic factors.
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RAHS Methodenliste
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black swans
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an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility
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carries an extreme impact
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in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable
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Taleb (2008)
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brainstorming
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Serves as a creative method for the free association and collection of ideas and key points for one theme, before real research work begins.
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RAHS Methodenkatalog
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brainwriting
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A universal method to collect ideas for any given problem, whereby a key word is commented on in writing by all participants in a workshop one after the next to produce a final, pluralistic picture of the word.
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RAHS Methodenliste
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cross-impact analysis
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“method (…) to see how different trends or actions affect each other or to analyse the interrelationships between variables within the system”
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Lindgren et al. (2003: 152)
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Cross-impact analysis is the general name given to a family of techniques designed to evaluate changes in the probability of the occurrence of a given set of events consequent on the actual occurrence of one of them. The cross impact model was introduced as a means of accounting for the interactions between a set of forecasts, when those interactions may not have been taken into consideration when individual forecasts were produced.
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European Commission (2006)
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“involves cross-tabulating possible events on a matrix that allows the interaction between every pair of events to be reviewed”
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Hooley et al. (2008: 197 f.)
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three forms of impact can be evaluated (impact, timing, probability)
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related to the assumption of “cyclic fluctuations in the economy and other spheres of the society’s activity”
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Yakovets (2006: 3)
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decision matrix
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serves the systematic composition and analysis of decisionmaking options and their implications.
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presents rules for hierarchical or causally-connected decisionmaking.
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can be one component of decision-making software.
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RAHS Methodenkatalog
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delphi method
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“the objective is (…) the reliable and creative exploration of ideas or the production of suitable information for decision making (…) based on a structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback”
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Ziglio (1996: 3)
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“considered especially useful for long-range aspects (20 to 30 years) as expert opinions are the only source of information available for this time horizon”
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Cuhls et al. (2002: 13)
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future measures are estimated by asking a group of experts to make estimates, recirculating the estimates back to the group, and repeating the process till the numbers converge
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Aabo et al. (2005: 21)
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database
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An organized collection of data which is accessible for software through a defined API
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Howe (2010)
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demonstrator
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a product (as an automobile) used to demonstrate performance or merits to prospective buyers
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Merriam Webster Dictionary
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a person who engages in a public demonstration
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dimensional analysis
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“a technique that is commonly used in physics and engineering to reduce the number of independent degrees of freedom by taking advantage of the constraints imposed by dimensionality (…). The idea is to write down all the factors that a given phenomenon can depend on, and then find the combination that has the correct dimensions.”
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Farmer et al. (2006: 141)
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Dimensional analysis produces relations between variables that are particularly useful when a ‘formal’ analysis is not available. Its highly valuable strength is to be the support of experiment, through checks on the validity of experimental design, in the ordering of the experimental procedure, by the enabling of a synthesis of empirical data and in making feasible some experimentation; in all these it is a very powerful tool. [...]The vital initial step to precision is the correct formulation of the physics of the phenomenon being studied.
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Gibbings (2011: vi)
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“Fundamental relationships are dimensionally consistent and unit-free. The central idea of dimensional analysis is that those can always be expressed as relationships between dimensionless groups.”
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Palmer (2008: 38)
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discontinuity
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major, drastic shift in a trend which cannot be accounted for by normal variation
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University of Arizona (2013)
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event that cannot be shown by trend analysis
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Millett (2011: 41)
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environmental impact assessment
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“a procedure for assessing the environmental implications of a decision to enact legislation, to implement policies and plans, or to initiate development processes”
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Wathern (1998: 3)
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Ecclestone (2011: 1 ff.)
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principles relating to the main activities of Environmental Impact Assessment: prediction (direct/indirect impacts, cumulative effects, cross-sectorial linkages), risk and hazard assessment, monitoring, evaluation, communication
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Morgan (1998: 28)
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environmental scanning
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“study and interpretation of political, economic, social and technological events and trends”
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Kroon (2004: 76)
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systematic search of current developments, usually through detailed review of selected formal and informal publications, of current developments and trend shifts that suggest that future changes may be brewing
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Millennium Project (2013)
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defined as continuous, exploratory, and holistic process
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Goyal (2006: 32)
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event sequence analysis
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sequence analysis as “analysis of categorical sequences of events to model entire event history career trajectories (…) concerned with the order in which events occur and the transition mechanisms between additional states”
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Mills (2011: 213 f.)
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key steps: describing, visualising, and comparing key sequences, grouping into clusters, associating patterns with other variables within regression models
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Hand (2001)
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an analysis of a sequence of events that describes how things change over time
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analysis of developments over time rather than causal combinations among factors
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Van de Ven (1992)
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event tree
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“an event tree is a graphical representation of the possible outcomes of an incident that results from a selected initiating event”
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Crawley et al. (2003: 39)
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extrapolation
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extend the application of (a method or conclusion) to an unknown situation by assuming that existing trends will continue or similar methods will be applicable
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Oxford Dictionary
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“estimating a probable figure for the future”
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Aggarwal et al. (2010: 3 f.)
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estimating a value that lies outside a known series by considering the assumption of “no sudden ups and downs” and “regularity or uniformity of changes”
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through extrapolation of data into future forecasting, “future estimates can be made on the basis of available data”
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“forecasting methods where only past values of a variable (and possibly time itself) are used to forecast future values”
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Albright et al. (2011: 735)
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“the drawing of a conclusion about some future or hypothetical situation based on observed tendencies and maintained assumptions”
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Manski (2013: 31)
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field anomaly relaxation method
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Error: Reference source not found approach with “a backdrop of internally consistent futures as contexts for policy formulation and decision-making (…) potentially applicable for broader policy-making and decision analysis (…) by providing consistent and coherent views of the future”
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Faulkner (2003: 321 f.)
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scenario options which exhibit inconsistencies, anomalies, or infeasibilities are discarded
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at every stage of the scenario building process, future options “must be relatively coherent and internally self-consistent if they are to stand as plausible alternative conditions with the chosen social field”
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Rhyne et al. (2008: 74)
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Fifth Scenario
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compares a set of exploratory scenarios with a further normative, ideal future scenario. The future desired scenario stems from a combination of positively evaluated elements (a projection of key factors) from the explorative initial scenario.
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The term “Fifth Scenarios“ stems from the anglo-American future studies field in which generally four scenario alternatives are explored.
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RAHS Methodenliste
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Five Future Glasses
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serves to analyse future-oriented concepts from different angles.
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the first set of glasses stands for a neutral, fact-based view of the topic; the second set of glasses stands for a subjective perspective and tries to produce an analysis based on personal and professional experience; the third set of glasses focuses on negative aspects of the topic; the fourth focuses on only positive aspects; the fifth looks at the exploration of new perspectives and the development of ideas for further development.
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RAHS Methodenkatalog
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future news
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a method of communication and multiplication that appears in the trend or scenario-based process results.
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is reported in the form of a fictional newspaper, radio, or TV report or other media format from current events at a defined future date.
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RAHS Methodenkatalog
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force-field analysis
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application of field theory through an analysis “that provides a framework for looking at the factors (‘forces’) that influence any given situation”
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Rock et al. (2009: 404)
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“technique for looking at all the forces for and against a decision”
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conceptualization of a stable situation as “forces pushing (in favour of) change balanced by those restraining change”
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Rollinson (2008: 643)
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forecasting
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attempt to “predict the future by using qualitative or quantitative means”
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Lucey (2002: 169)
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“a process that has as its objective the prediction of a future event”
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Flores (2000: 235)
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“includes the analysis of historical information with the purpose of identifying the characteristics for forecasting”
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technology forecasting: This means making base forecasts for major forms and end-uses of a certain product for each country, and subsequently aggregating them to provide a more reliable estimate for total world demand.
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Rockfellow, John (1994:47)
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foresight
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Synonym for future studies describing activities as critical thinking concerning long-term developments, debate and effort to create wider participatory democracy, shaping the future especially by influencing policy making
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Universität der Bundeswehr
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foresight process
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Elements of a successful foresight process:
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Phase one comprises the collection, collation and summarization of available information and results in the production of foresight knowledge.
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Phase two comprises the translation and interpretation of this knowledge to produce an understanding of its implications for the future from the specific point of view of a particular organization.
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Phase three comprises the assimilation and evaluation of this understanding to produce a commitment to action in a particular organization.
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Horton(1999: 5)
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Possible stages of forecasting: formulate problem, obtain information, select methods, implement methods, evaluate methods, use forecasts
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Armstrong (2001 : 8)
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Z-punkt refers to the foresight process as “Prozess des Trendmanagement” which aims at the “continuous identification, rating, documentation and interpretation of trends in the own environment”.
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Fink, A. et al.
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future studies
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interdisciplinary approach to “gaining understanding of how today’s conditions and trends will likely shape the future (…) and how the future conditions could be shaped by policies and actions taken (…) today”
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Getz (2007: 120)
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study of collecting data and making predictions based on data collection
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Lombardo (2008: 147)
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study of facts (trends, patterns of change, people’s belief systems)
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-
contains various competing explanatory theories
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futures triangle
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way to explore the possibilities and preferences of the future
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Lnayatullah (2002)
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triangle consists of three dimensions (pulls, pushes, weights) as organizing methods to identity and discern plausible futures
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