Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
AT: Energy Security Alt causes to volatility
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- 2. Speculation
- 3. Market complexity
- AT: Environmental Leadership
AT: Energy SecurityAlt causes to volatility1. Middle EastPeople’s Daily in ‘7 (“Variables cause of crude oil price volatility”, 4-13, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200704/13/eng20070413_366272.html)Of course, neither a price rise nor a price crash is in the long-term interests of oil-producing and consuming countries. Everyone hopes that oil prices can be stabilized at a reasonable level. On the one hand, overly-high oil prices would encourage non-OPEC oil producers to step up oil production, which would lead to chaos in the oil market, and have a negative impact on the development of the world economy. On the other hand, it is unrealistic to return to the era of cheap oil. This is mainly because oil is a non-renewable source of energy. With global demand increasing rapidly, oil reserves are decreasing quickly. It is a difficult problem. In particular, oil-producing giant OPEC will not sit idly by if oil prices slump, having made so many petrodollars from higher oil prices. Reportedly, OPEC's bottom line crude oil export price is no less than $60 a barrel. If oil prices fall below this, OPEC will do everything possible to revive the market. In fact, it has twice taken action to reverse the sharp decline of oil prices by reducing daily production levels to 1.7 million barrels. In any case, oil prices will be volatile while war, turmoil and fear prevail in the Middle East. The fragile balance between demand and supply in the world oil market means that any sign of trouble could cause serious turmoil. In the Gulf region, there are many variables. In particular, the tit-for-tat conflict between Iran and the United States makes the general situation unpredictable. If there is a conflict between the two countries, oil prices might run out of control, pushing oil prices to the highest point ever. 2. SpeculationIANS in ‘8 (Indo-Asian News Service, “OIL PRICE SWINGS DUE TO SPECULATION: SAUDI ARAMCO CHIEF”, 11-26, L/N)Speculation was the cause of the intense volatility in the oil prices rather than any other factor, the head of Saudi Arabia's national oil company said here Wednesday. "It is obvious. When our King called for a meeting (in June), oil was around 130 (dollars per barrel). But, there was no shortage," Abdallah S. Jum'ah, president and CEO of Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, said while delivering the GreatCorps World Business Statesman lecture. "There was no need for the price to be where it was at that time. It's obvious now that speculation played a lot (of role)," he said. Further, he noted that the current steep drop in oil prices was due to "people dropping their contracts in order to monetize them". "(The fall in prices is) not determined by supply and demand," said Jum'ah, who has headed Aramco for over 14 years and is slated to retire at end of December 2008. 3. Market complexityYergin et al, 08 (12/15, Daniel, Chairman @ Cambridge Energy Research Associates formerly Chair of US DOE Task Force on sTrategic Energy Research and Development, David Hobbs, CERA Head of Research, Julian West, CERA Senior Associate and Expert in Strategic Analysis and Portfolio Management, and Richard Vital, CERA Director, ““Recession Shock”: The Impact of the Economic and Financial Crisis on the Oil Market”, http://www.decc.gov.uk/pdfs/cera-report.pdf)Faced with the potential for more violent swings in the oil price—resulting from timing effects and market reactions, all adding to the bias toward underinvestment that is created by volatility—it is only natural to ask if there are ways to remove this volatility. If only producers could enjoy greater security of demand. If only consumers could rely on uninterrupted supply. If only inventories alone were sufficient to dampen price volatility and there were no need for the market to guess about future changes in spare production capacity. If only institutional investors were consistent in their demands on the energy companies in which they invest. The oil market is too big, complex, diversified, and international. There are too many participants with major national, economic, or commercial interests at stake. The lead times are too long and the supply side too “lumpy.” There are also too many variables that can shock the market. CERA sees no escape from some degree of volatility in the oil market—indeed, volatility may be an unintended side effect of periods of consensus about expected future oil prices. Such periods are characteristic of the industry worldwide. The oil industry’s responses to such consensus frustrate expectations. However, episodes of extreme volatility such as in 2008 (or the early and mid-1980s and 1998–99) exacerbate imbalances between supply and demand because the more volatile the oil price, the more cautious the investment planning of oil companies. AT: Environmental Leadership1. No solvency – US efforts lack credibility, the plan would be perceived as desperate political spin.Geiselman 6/11/2007 Staff Writer for Waste News(Bruce - Waste News, “Bush Pledges Leadership on Global Warming,” Lexis-Nexis, EA)President Bush has pledged the United States would spearhead an international effort to address global climate change, but environmental advocacy groups immediately voiced skepticism. Bush, speaking to reporters in Washington on May 31, unveiled a plan for the United States to convene a meeting between nations that are major emitters of greenhouse gases. Bush said he wants to complete a new framework before the end of 2008 for reducing greenhouse gas emissions after 2012 when the Kyoto protocol expires. The United States refused to ratify the 1997 international agreement. Bush said it would be essential for nations with rapidly growing economies, including China and India, to participate in talks. Those countries, with rapidly growing energy demands, also have resisted mandatory cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. White House spokesmen said the president's proposal would address both energy and economic security by accelerating the development and use of clean energy technologies. The participating countries would agree to international targets, but each country would achieve its emissions goal by establishing its own programs and interim targets. The United States would assist other countries by providing them with access to emerging clean energy technologies and eliminating tariffs and other barriers to those technologies. Bush also called on international development banks to make low-cost financing readily available for developing countries. Bush said the United States has been a leader in developing cleaner, cheaper and more reliable energy technologies - including solar, wind, nuclear and clean coal technologies. ``In recent years, science has deepened our understanding of climate change and opened new possibilities for confronting it,'' Bush said. ``The United States takes this issue seriously.'' Leaders in the environmental movement critical of the Bush administration's record on global warming quickly rejected the president's latest proposal unveiled before the start of an international summit. ``This is a transparent effort to divert attention from the president's refusal to accept any emissions reductions proposals at [the June 6-8] G8 summit,'' said Philip Clapp, president of the National Environmental Trust. ``After sitting out talks on global warming for years, the Bush administration doesn't have very much credibility with other governments on this issue.'' 2. Obama solves – a legitimate push for cap and trade was perceived as well as EPA regulation Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. 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