The present and future system for measuring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and heat transport



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Date10.02.2018
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Community White Paper Proposal
Title

The present and future system for measuring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and heat transport
Lead author

Stuart Cunningham, NOC,

Empress Dock

Southampton SO14 3ZH, U.K.

+44 (0)23 80596436

S.Cunningham@noc.soton.ac.uk

Contributing authors

Bill Johns (RSMAS, Miami, FL USA)


Molly Baringer  (AOML, Miami, FL USA)
John Toole (WHOI, Woods Hole, MA USA)
Svein Osterhus (Bergen University, Bergen, Norway)
Jurgen Fischer (IfM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany)
Alberto Piola  (Servicio de Hidorgrafia Naval, Buenos Aires, Argentina)
Elaine McDonagh (NOC, Southampton, U.K.)
Susan Lozier  (Duke Univ, USA)

Uwe Send (SIO, La Jolla, CA USA)

Torsten Kanzow (NOC, Southampton, UK)

Jochem Marotzke (MPI, Hamburg, Germany)


Description

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) stretches from the Nordic Seas to the Southern Ocean, contributes to inter-hemispheric exchanges of heat, freshwater and mass, ventilates the abyssal and deep ocean basins, and provides one-quarter of the global meridional heat transport. Assessing the possibility of shifts in this component of the climate system in the geologic past as well as near future is a crucial part of understanding the risks posed by anthropogenic climate change. Internal variability and externally forced changes of AMOC are both likely to impact sea ice; marine ecosystems; the ocean carbon budget and sequestration; and regional and global sea level. A continuous record of the zonally-integrated, full water column, trans-basin fluxes of heat, mass and fresh water transported in the AMOC is essential to assessing its influences on the climate system and potential predictability.


Prior to the CLIVAR era, measurements of the MOC were basically limited to sporadic occupations of trans-basin hydrographic sections and deployment of boundary current transport arrays. In the last decade, significant progress toward directly measuring the strength and variability of AMOC and its heat transport was achieved through deployment of the RAPID/MOCHA arrays across 26.5N. These measurements are providing new

insights regarding the magnitude and time scales of AMOC variability.


The next step must be to discern the meridional connectivity of AMOC variability on various time scales. Efforts are presently directed toward development and implementation of additional trans-basin measurements in the subpolar North Atlantic and subtropical South Atlantic, as well as the flows through Drake Passage and around the tip of South Africa. A fully coordinated monitoring system will also depend upon sustained basin wide observations (i.e. Argo, surface drifters, high density XBT programs) and satellite altimetry with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to resolve mesoscale features. Analysis of data and model products, process modeling studies and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are presently underway to determine the most adequate and cost effective monitoring system for the AMOC of the near future.

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