Figure 10. Principal component (PC) of 2nd EOF from monthly anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical Atlantic (30°N-30°S). PCs are plotted for the five ensemble members (R005-R009), the ensemble mean, and the ERSSTv3b data set. An 11-month running mean was applied to the time series for display.
Figure 11. Standard deviation (STD) of anomalous heat content rate of change in the upper 80m (shading, Wm-2), STD of anomalous SST (black contours), and time mean SST (gray contours). Box is the model Benguela region.
Figure 12. (a) Monthly (gray) and yearly smoothed (solid black) anomalous SST in the Benguela region, model NINO3 anomalous SST (dashed black) shown 9 months ahead of Benguela SST. (b) Correlation of yearly smoothed Benguela SST with SST and wind stress elsewhere.
Figure 13. (a) Lagged autocorrelation of anomalous SST and lagged correlation of anomalous heat content rate of change (HCR) with anomalous vertical (VERT), meridional (MER), zonal (ZON) heat advection, and anomalous net surface heat flux (NHF). All variables are spatially averaged over the Benguela region box and vertically integrated in the upper 80m.
(b) Lagged correlation of anomalous vertical heat advection in the Benguela region with wind stress elsewhere. Arrows show maximum correlation. Shading shows time lag (in month) corresponding to maximum correlation. Wind stress leads for positive lags. Correlations exceeding 0.3 are shown in red. Temporal regression of anomalous vertical heat advection on anomalous mean sea level pressure elsewhere at zero lag is overlain as contours. Contour values show pressure anomalies (mbar) corresponding to 100W/m^2 anomalous vertical heat advection in the Benguela region.
(c) The same as in (b) but for anomalous meridional heat advection. Pressure pattern is not shown.
Figure 14. Lagrangian trajectories along isopycnal layers. a) and b) σθ= 25.0 kg/m3 surface; c) and d) σθ= 26.5 kg/m3 surface; e) and f) σθ = 27.1 kg/m3 surface. The left column is for CCSM4 simulation results and the right column is for the POP model results. The trajectories are based on annual averages. The yellow squares represent the yearly position of floats originally released. These trajectories are based on the projection of the velocity field onto an isopycnal surface and, therefore, do not include diapycnal flow.
Figure 15. Volume transport (Sv) across the a) 2°N section for b) 2°S section in the Atlantic Ocean. The layers are divided according to their respective water masses (in units of kg/m3): surface (σθ < 23), upper (25> σθ > 23), intermediate (25.5 < σθ <27), deep (27< σθ < 28), and bottom (σθ >28).
TABLES
Table 1. Rank correlation coefficients between simulations and observations of warm pool indices for April and September. Each of the columns R005-R009 corresponds to an ensemble member.
|
Ensemble
mean
|
R005
|
R006
|
R007
|
R008
|
R009
|
April obs.
|
0.35
|
0.43
|
0.12
|
0.35
|
0.20
|
0.35
|
Sept. obs.
|
0.70
|
0.50
|
0.57
|
0.44
|
0.64
|
0.57
|
Table 2. Spearman correlation coefficients between the principal components of sea surface temperature from the simulations and the observations. Each of the columns R005-R009 corresponds to an ensemble member.
|
Ensemble
mean
|
R005
|
R006
|
R007
|
R008
|
R009
|
PC1 obs.
|
0.74
|
0.58
|
0.41
|
0.63
|
0.52
|
0.70
|
PC2 obs.
|
-0.01
|
0.01
|
0.12
|
-0.11
|
0.11
|
-0.17
|
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