World meteorological organization technical document



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3.2 Australia



3.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Limited Area Prediction System: TC-LAPS
The following statistics are for the 2001 North West Pacific season.

When multiple storms were present, the principal storm at the base time of the forecast was verified (until recently only one forecast to 48 hours was made per base time).


Total number of TCs verified = 16

Chebi Durian Utor Trami Kong-Re Toraji Man-Yi Pabuk Danas Nari Vipa Francis Lekima Krosa Haiyan Podul



(i) Track errors



Forecast Interval

No. Cases

Error (km)

T+0

117

20.8

T+24

110

138.7

T+48

89

236.9

Distribution of errors in 100 km bins for the 48-hour forecasts




0-100

100-200

200-300

300-400

400-500

500-600

600-700

>700

14

25

27

10

8

4

1

0


(ii) Central pressure errors (hPa)


Forecast

No.

RMS

Error

Mean

Error

Abs

Error

Interval

Cases

TCL

PRS

TCL

PRS

TCL

PRS

T+0

117

6.5

0.0

-5.0

0.0

5.4

0.0

T+24

110

11.0

13.7

-5.6

-3.6

8.7

11.0

T+48

89

16.6

21.8

-10.0

-8.2

13.2

18.0


(TCL = TC-LAPS; PRS = Persistence)



3.3 China

No tropical cyclone verification statistics are available.




3.4 France

No tropical cyclone verification statistics are available.




3.5 Hong Kong, China

No tropical cyclone verification statistics are available.





    1. India



      1. Quasi-Lagrangian Limited Area Model

TRACK PREDICTION ERRORS


YEAR

PERIOD

24 HRS



36 HRS

MEAN POSITION ERROR (KM)

ANGULAR DEVIATION BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED TRACK VECTORS (RMSE) (DEG.)

MEAN POSITION ERROR (KM)

ANGULAR DEVIATION BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED TRACK VECTORS (RMSE)

(DEG.)

1998

20-22 NOV.
6-10 JUN

146.2
140.1

17.4
32.4

242.6
205.2

12.7
27.9


1999

16-20 MAY
15-18 OCT
26-30 OCT

97.4
151.4
107.7

12.1
13.7
19.2


133.0
426.5
185.7

12.2
20.7
23.0

2000

15-19 OCT
27-30 NOV

105.0
114.8

25.8
05.7

237.1
161.5


23.8
15.5

2001



21-28 MAY
24-27 SEP
14-17 OCT

90.0
110.0
120.0

15.2
10.1
12.3

160.0
180.0
210.0

20.1
15.1
22.0




MEAN 118.3 16.4 214.1 19.3
Observed track vector : Initial (at T0) to observed (at T0+24H or T0+36H) positions

Directory: pages -> prog -> www -> tcp -> documents -> doc
doc -> Review of the ra IV hurricane operational plan
doc -> Global tropical cyclone season
doc -> English only recent and current activities of the rsmc new delhi
doc -> World meteorological organization
doc -> Coordination in operational aspects of the hurricane warning system and related matters coordination with and within the cmo member states
doc -> Review of the past hurricane season reports of hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical disturbances and related flooding during
doc -> Review of the past hurricane season reports of hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical disturbances and related flooding during
doc -> Review of the past hurricane season reports of hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical disturbances and related flooding during
doc -> Review of the past hurricane season reports of hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical disturbances and related flooding during
doc -> English only

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