1. weak stationarity


Part II METHODS FOR TESTING UNIT ROOTS



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Part II


  1. METHODS FOR TESTING UNIT ROOTS

    • Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF)

    • Extensions to the Dickey-Fuller Test (DF) e.g “Pantula principle”, seasonal unit roots, structural breaks, fractional unit roots etc.

    • Phillips-Perron Test (PP)

    • Kwaitkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS)

    • Elliot-Rothenberg-Stock point optimal (ERS)

    • Ng-Perron test

    • Etc.

We only focus on the ADF.

In all cases the basic idea is to search for the data generating process (DGP) from;




3. THE DICKEY FULLER TEST


3.1 Pure random walk

Where

Subtracting on both sides



Let

Then

The DGP is non-stationary if . The DGP is stationary if . Recall the Monte Carlo simulations



This parameterisation facilitates the use of the t-test.

H0: - Non-stationarity

H1: – Stationarity

3.2 Random walk with drift

(i) Test for stationarity alone



H0: - Non-stationarity

H1: - Stationary



(ii) Identifying joint significance of unit root and the drift term

The main question here is whether nature generated the variable as a random walk with drift or not.



This should be done by the following joint test

H0: - Non-stationarity





  • Failure to reject, whilst rejecting H0: while rejecting H0: and that follows an asymptotic normal distribution.

3.3 Random walk with drift and trend

(i) Test for stationarity alone

  • For a DGP for random walk with drift, insert a constant/drift term (m)



H0: - Non-stationarity

H1: - Stationary

follows distribution

(ii) Identifying joint significance of unit root and the time trend

The main question here is whether nature generated the variable as a random walk with time trend or not.



This should be done by the following joint test

H0: - Non-stationarity





  • Failure to reject H0: while rejecting H0: and that follows an asymptotic normal distribution.





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