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XT – US Oil Independent/Has Enough Capacity



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XT – US Oil Independent/Has Enough Capacity

And the most recent data is on our side --- IEA predictions.


Institute for Energy Research, 11/18/2013 (A not-for-profit organization that conducts intensive research and analysis on the functions, operations, and government regulation of global energy markets. IER maintains that freely-functioning energy markets provide the most efficient and effective solutions to today’s global energy and environmental challenges and, as such, are critical to the well-being of individuals and society, citing the IEA energy reports, “IEA Predicts the U.S. Will Be the World’s Largest Oil Producer by 2015” http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/59323)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) just released it World Energy Outlook 2013 and moves up the date by which the United States will become the world’s largest oil producer. In last year’s Outlook, the agency predicted the United States to be the number one oil producer by 2017, but it now predicts we will achieve that ranking two years earlier, in 2015, and we will then be producing 11 million barrels per day. The shale oil renaissance enabled by hydraulic fracturing coupled with directional drilling technology is the reason that the United States can reclaim that position from the current oil production leaders–Russia and Saudi Arabia. The United States remains the world’s largest oil producer for much of the IEA forecast period to 2035. Improved energy efficiency and a boom in unconventional oil and gas production enable the United States to meet almost all of its energy needs from domestic resources by 2035. Also, IEA points out that in 2035, fossil fuels still remain the major fuels on which the world relies, supplying 76 percent of primary energy demand in 2035.¶ Oil Supply and Demand¶ Over the next decade, increasing oil production in North America and Brazil reduces the need for OPEC oil due to technological advancement. According to the IEA, technology is opening up new types of resources, such as tight oil and ultra-deepwater offshore fields that were considered too difficult and expensive to access until recently. Through this decade, the oil boom in North and South America threatens revenues for OPEC’s members, whose production is at its lowest in two years, but OPEC will resume its major position towards the end of IEA’s forecast period as it remains the only major source of relatively low cost oil. IEA expects oil production in the United States to peak at almost 12 million barrels per day in 2025 and plateau thereafter. Despite new resources opening up, national oil companies and their host governments still control 80 percent of the world’s proven-plus-probable oil reserves.

Energy boom now – The US sq drilling can sustain our energy production.


Offner, 2014 (Jim, Mcclatchy News Service, “Will the U.S. Declare Oil Independence in 2037?” http://www.govtech.com/transportation/Will-the-US-Declare-Oil-Independence-in-2037.html)

Mark the year 2037 on your calendars. That’s the year the U.S. will not have to import any more oil, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. RELATED High-Tech Buoy System Tracks Galveston Bay Oil Spill The U.S. Navy has developed a method for extracting what from seawater? “The new Independence Day,” joked Phil Flynn, energy analyst with Chicago-based Price Futures Group. But, he actually was serious. “Since the Arab Oil Embargo, it’s been our nation’s goal to become energy independent, and there’s been a lot done in that time to use less oil and become more fuel-efficient.” Advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling get much of the credit. Technology now can squeeze oil out of rocks. And, with net oil imports down from 13 million barrels a day in 2006 to about 5 million now, the U.S. is rising as a power player in the energy business, where it once was a craven customer that would pay whatever price one despot or another commanded. The U.S. is now actually positioning itself as the world’s dominant – and reliable -- energy producer. Flynn compares this national accomplishment to landing a man on the moon. “A few years ago it was pessimism, with people asking what happens when Saudi Arabia runs out of oil; now, we’re going to be the world’s biggest oil producer," he said. It already has begun. According to the federal Energy Information Administration, total U.S. net imports of energy, measured in terms of energy content, declined in 2013 to their lowest level in more than two decades. Growth in the production of oil and natural gas displaced imports and supported increased petroleum product exports, driving most of the decline. Net energy imports decreased by 19 percent from 2012 to 2013. Here's the irony: The federal government has fought this expansion. The number of drilling leases on federal lands that the Bureau of Land Management fell from more than 9,000 in 1988 to 1,468 last year. The number was 3,499 as recently as 2007. The Obama Administration has clamped access to oil and gas riches on federal property. Production, meanwhile, is booming in the Eagle Ford and Bakken formations -- the former in Texas and the latter in North Dakota and Montana. “President Obama said we couldn’t drill our way to energy independence, but we are,” Flynn said. The motoring public will note gasoline prices continue to rise. But Flynn says prices are lower than a year ago and could be much higher now without the increased U.S. output. Were it not for the riches fracking technology has unlocked, gas probably would be $8 a gallon now, instead of $3.50, Flynn said. “It’s keeping a lid on prices," he said. Forty years after the oil embargo, petroleum is still powering the U.S. economy. Big Green argues that it has a better solution, but it's Big Oil that has the goods, here and now, and there's more to come. Meanwhile, Flynn notes, Russia isn't trying to take over Ukraine over wind mills; it's all about oil and gas. “Everybody’s heard about the shale gas revolution, but they haven’t realized that, with these same technologies, we’re producing a heck of a lot of oil out of these same rocks,” Flynn said. In practical terms, this new oil and gas boom is keeping the national economy afloat. “I shudder to think how the economy would be doing without it," Flynn said. "Let’s face it: This is one of the few growing industries in the country. The industry that has been revolutionized that is going to change the world is this energy boom in the United States."

US production is high


Cala 7/11/2013 (Andrés Cala is an award-winning Colombian journalist, columnist and analyst specializing in geopolitics and energy. He is the lead author of America’s Blind Spot: Chávez, Energy, and US Security, “US Energy Renaissance Shifts Power”, July, 9th, 2013, http://consortiumnews.com/2013/07/09/us-energy-renaissance-shifts-geopolitics/)

The surge in U.S. output from shale gas and so-called “tight oil” is reshaping global economics by making Americans less dependent on foreign oil and freeing President Barack Obama to reorient the nation’s geopolitical strategies accordingly. The supply-and-demand math of this new equation is simple. The U.S. economy has historically been configured to run on cheap energy, but for the past half century, rising oil prices have caused economic dislocations domestically while funneling trillions of American dollars to energy-rich regions around the world.¶ The U.S. government also ramped up its security involvement in these areas, especially the oil-rich Middle East, frequently protecting ruling autocrats in exchange for steady supplies of oil.¶ Early in this new century, an expanding world economy and an expectation that energy supplies would dwindle kept prices high, enriching oil and gas producers, including American rivals such as Russia and Iran. Meanwhile, high oil prices put pressure on the economies of big consumers like the United States, often distorting U.S. global strategies. President George W. Bush partially justified his invasion of Iraq in 2003 by citing a concern over who would control that nation’s vast oil reserves.¶ Adding to energy-price inflation was the historic growth in the economies of nations such as China and India. Oil prices soared to records of nearly $150 a barrel before crashing in 2007-08 as the global economic crisis hit. Still, revived expectations of tight supplies and a resurgent demand lifted crude prices again, threatening the fragile U.S. economic recovery taking hold during the early years of the Obama administration.¶ However, by then, decades of private U.S. investment finally was delivering technological breakthroughs in the use of “fracking” technology to release shale gas and “tight oil.” By 2010, it was increasingly clear that the great potential of shale reserves was materializing and triggering a profound reassessment of global output forecasts for this decade and beyond.¶ A bullish price climb toward $200 a barrel, which was expected as recently as two years ago, has turned into a bearish price outlook of between $80 and $100 a barrel. This new reality is underscored by the U.S. Energy Information Administration 2013 Outlook, which projects that U.S. primary energy consumption will remain mostly flat for the next 30 years while the country’s gas and oil production will grow steadily.¶ In May 2013, U.S. crude output increased 20 percent from a year before to 7.3 million barrels per day, the highest since 1992, while oil demand has shrunk as the result of the economic crisis, increased fuel efficiency, more use of natural gas in transportation, and reducing consumer demand trends. “Tight oil” output will contribute 2.4 million bpd by 2020, similar to Norway’s and Venezuela’s output, and similar to Iran’s exports before sanctions took hold. Natural gas production is also surging, and the U.S., which last decade built gas import infrastructure, is now expected to become a net exporter. That means U.S. energy imports will decrease while exports increase, changing the old rules of the energy game not just for the United States but for the world’s other major energy producers and consumers.


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