2014 ndi 6ws – Fitzmier, Lundberg, Abelkop
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- GOP Will win but it will be close – Catholic turnout strategy
- GOP will win but it will be close – state majority opinions
- GOP Will win – democratic enthusiasm problem but “war on women” makes it close
- GOP Will win – recent court case cracked Obamacare’s armor
- GOP will win – key states, obama’s low job ratings, IRS scandal, hospital crisis, and Iraq policy
- GOP will win – religious freedom after court ruling
- GOP will win – plans to appeal to women
- Republicans are close to winning the Senate- they are expected to pick up seats in several states
- Dems will win but it will be close – women
- The GOP will win, Obama is unpopular right now and Democrats suffer from the Bergdhal scandal
- AT: Uniqueness overwhelms the link
UNIQUENESSGOPWinGOP Will Win but it will be close – obamacare and increased campaign strategiesAP, 7/6 – (“Senate Republicans Confident Obamacare Backlash Will Give Them Majority”, News Max, 7/6/14, http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/midterms-obamacare-backlash-gop/2014/07/06/id/580992/)//EX North Carolina Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan has her Republican opponent right where she wants him geographically — and, therefore, politically. Thom Tillis is stuck at the state capitol trying to resolve a budget quarrel as speaker of the North Carolina House. It's a spot that helps Hagan emphasize Tillis' role leading a Republican-controlled state government that Democrats contend has gone overboard with conservative zeal by restricting access to abortion and the voting booth while cutting corporate taxes and slashing spending on schools. If Tillis is worried by Hagan's portrayal, he doesn't show it. Drinking coffee this past week from a hand-grenade-shaped mug in his no-frills legislative office, he's got his own message in his campaign to take Hagan's Senate seat. "Obamacare," he said, "continues to be a big problem." Similar themes are playing out in other crucial Senate races, as voters have four months to decide which party will control the chamber in the final two years of Barack Obama's presidency. For Republicans, it's all about tying Democrats to Obama — especially to a health care law that remains unpopular with many Americans. And for Democrats, the election is about just about anything else, especially if they can steer attention away from Washington and federal matters. It's a political strategy that sometimes gives the campaigns an inside-out feel, with veteran senators running as if they were first-timers without a Washington resume to defend or tout. Democrat Mark Pryor has represented Arkansas in the Senate for two terms, yet one of his TV ads begins with a man saying, "I remember when Pryor was attorney general." A woman adds that he pursued "scam artists that were ripping off seniors." Pryor was state attorney general more than a decade ago, and for just four years, compared to his nearly dozen in the Senate. His harkening back to that time points to his desire to make the election a choice between a famous name in Arkansas state politics and first-term Rep. Tom Cotton, a Republican whom many view as less personable and engaging than Pryor. The GOP strategy, in return, is straightforward. One TV ad has a young girl spelling Pryor's name as O-B-A-M-A. Traditionally emphasized by first-time campaigners, personal biographies are central to several other Democrats' re-election campaigns. Alaska Sen. Mark Begich has aired a TV ad with footage of him as a boy of about 10, when his father, Rep. Nick Begich, died in a plane crash. "Mark is clearly his father's son," says the narrator, Begich's wife, Deborah Bonito. And after 18 years in the Senate, Democrat Mary Landrieu is arguably the most accomplished member of her famous Louisiana political family. Still, she has aired an ad in which her father — former New Orleans Mayor Moon Landrieu — says affectionately: "When you have nine children, you're bound to have one who's hard-headed." Some Democrats might say the same about the GOP's strategy of bashing "Obamacare" now that the Affordable Care Act is 4 years old. Not Tillis, who says Obama and Hagan exaggerated the extent to which people could keep their doctors and insurance plans. He calls it "the greatest example of a promise not kept." He's getting help with the message from Crossroads GPS, the political group run in part by Republican strategist Karl Rove, which is spending more than $3.5 million on television ads in North Carolina this summer. The group's latest ad attacking Hagan asks whether voters know she "cast the deciding vote for Obamacare." "The idea that this will be anything less than a referendum on Obamacare is wishful thinking," said Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C. The amount spent on the Hagan-Tillis race — about $17 million and climbing — is among the nation's highest. It comes in a state that few can rival for political change in recent years, as Republicans ended a century of frustration by winning control of both legislative chambers and the governor's office in 2012. What came next is a "conservative revolution" that Tillis said he's proud of leading. Hagan and her fellow Democrats argue the Republicans went too far in a state so closely divided politically that Obama carried it in 2008 and lost it four years later. They believe a bump in teacher pay that Tillis promises lawmakers will enact this summer won't erase North Carolinians' memories of the deep cuts to education that Republicans passed last year. That approach, said Rep. David Price, D-N.C., is Hagan's best chance to focus November voters' attention on something other than Obama. Her strategy "is exactly what she should do," Price said, because Tillis "has got that hung right around his neck." Hagan, meanwhile, points to achievements close to home. They include her push to provide medical care to military families exposed to tainted water for decades at Camp Lejeune, the giant Marine Corps base in eastern North Carolina. "Kay Hagan," said veteran North Carolina GOP strategist Paul Shumaker, "is hoping the sins of Raleigh are much bigger than the sins of Washington." GOP Will win but it will be close – Catholic turnout strategyNCR, 7/8 – (“Meet the 'evangelical' Catholics remaking the GOP”, National Catholic Reporter, 7/8/14, http://ncronline.org/news/politics/meet-evangelical-catholics-remaking-gop)//EX It does in today's Republican Party, where a number of factors have forged a new religious identity that supersedes familiar old categories. These prominent Republicans are emblematic of the new religious amalgam that, in many instances, has helped refashion denominational differences that were once almost insurmountable. Look no further than the stunning Virginia primary victory of Dave Brat, a Catholic with degrees from a Reformed Protestant college in Michigan and Princeton Theological Seminary, who took down House Majority Leader Eric Cantor June 10. Running in a conservative district in the Richmond suburbs, Brat is described as both a Catholic and Calvinist, labels that would be considered incompatible in almost any realm. He's a champion of a resurgent movement among Catholic intellectuals that seeks to marry Catholic social teaching with economic libertarianism. Heading into the 2014 midterm elections, several of the Republican Party's emerging leaders are Catholic, including some who maintain evangelical backgrounds or tendencies. The challenge for Catholic politicians might be finding the balancing act between a Catholic and an evangelical appeal, said Amy E. Black, a political science professor at Wheaton College in Illinois. "While the Catholic faith used to be a liability, it might even be an asset now," Black said. "Evangelicals are a solid voting bloc in the Republican Party, whereas Catholics are likely to be swing voters. Republican presidential candidates know they need to appeal to evangelical voters, and they want to win over as many Catholic voters as they can." Evangelicals have been relatively predictable in the past few elections, while Catholics have been less so. Although Catholic voters have historically tended to be Democratic, recent elections have shown them to be the ultimate swing vote. They backed Al Gore in 2000 (50 percent), George W. Bush in 2004 (52 percent), Barack Obama in 2008 (54 percent) and again in 2012 (50 percent), according to the Pew Research Center. Evangelicals, on the other hand, have been much more consistently Republican -- 79 percent for Mitt Romney in 2012, 73 percent for John McCain in 2008 and 79 percent for Bush in 2004. The newfound Catholic appeal among the GOP can be seen in the number of high-profile conversions to Rome. Jeb Bush, who comes from a classic blue-blood Episcopal family dynasty, converted to Roman Catholicism years ago. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal was raised Hindu but converted to Catholicism. Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback converted to Catholicism, but his wife and family still attend evangelical churches. And former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who was a Southern Baptist for most of his life, converted to his third wife's Roman Catholicism in 2009. More than 50 years after John F. Kennedy's Catholicism stirred fears that he would be more loyal to the pope than to the people, Catholicism isn't nearly the political liability it once was. "Growing up, the fact that someone was Catholic would give someone pause," said GOP strategist Ralph Reed, whose "Road to Majority" conference, held June 19-21, featured a keynote address from New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Catholic. "Now, there are a lot of evangelicals who greatly admired Pope John Paul II and some would look to Pope Francis for leadership." What changed? For one, leading Catholics and evangelicals decided they could do more together than working against each other. Twenty years ago, former Nixon aide Charles Colson and Fr. Richard John Neuhaus, founder of the ecumenical magazine First Things, spearheaded the document "Evangelicals and Catholics Together: The Christian Mission in the Third Millennium," and the cross-pollination the document promoted is having practical effects. "The alliance forged in the trenches between evangelical Protestants and faithful Catholics in the struggle to defend human life and marriage has blossomed into much greater than a mere marriage of convenience," said Princeton University's Robert P. George, the de facto leader of the Catholic intellectual political movement. "What has emerged is a spiritual fellowship that I think was not anticipated at the beginning by anybody." The challenge, George said, is for Catholic Republicans to speak in authentic ways to a largely evangelical base. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, a Catholic, has figured it out, while others, like 2012 vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, struggled. "I'm so goofy with that stuff," Ryan told Buzzfeed after a service where he sang with extended hands. "It's just not my thing. I'm Catholic!" "Ryan's Catholicism runs pretty deep," said Stephen Schneck, a longtime Democratic activist and professor at The Catholic University of America. "I'm not sure how he squares it with his libertarianism, but I don't think he really has the same evangelical style as others." Like Brat's surprise win June 3 in Virginia, Ryan's rise within the GOP reflects the rise of the tea party and a redirected focus among some conservatives from social issues to economics. As the The Washington Post reported, Brat, an economist at Randolph-Macon College in Ashland, Va., is part of a bigger movement in recent years of overtly religious economists. The central challenge for Catholic Republicans, said Wheaton College's Black, is twofold: not alienating fellow Catholics who say Brat-style economics is anathema to Catholic social teaching, and appealing to the evangelical base in a way that's authentic. "Any successful Republican presidential candidate needs to connect with evangelicals," Black said. "It doesn't mean a successful candidate has to be an evangelical, but they have to be able to connect with them. They need to be able to talk about their faith in a personal way." GOP will win but it will be close – state majority opinionsWhite, 7/1 – Editor at Virginia Right! (Tom, “An Analysis of the US Senate Races – Who Will Win Control in November?”, Before It’s News, 7/1/14, http://beforeitsnews.com/tea-party/2014/07/an-analysis-of-the-us-senate-races-who-will-win-control-in-november-2531372.html?currentSplittedPage=1)//EX Democrats Will Win the Following States: Hawaii: It’s Hawaii. They vote Democrat. Democrats hold. Minnesota: Al Franken is leading by 10 points in this heavily Democrat state. Unfortunately, Democrats will hold this seat. Oregon: A Left Coast Democrat stronghold. Incumbent Merkley is up by 10. Virginia: A well funded Republican money man Ed Gillespie is fighting a well funded and well liked Mark Warner. Some polls have Warner up by as much as 30 points. This race will see Gillespie set a record for the most money spent in a landslide loss. Safe Democrat seat. Michigan: If the Republicans manage to get their generic polling numbers up to 9 or 10 this could be a close race, but as it stands now it will be a Democrat victory. New Hampshire: Former MA Senator Scott Brown has moved to New Hampshire in hopes of winning a seat. Brown, you may recall, won the seat Ted Kennedy had occupied for so many years. The world was shocked when a Republican won that seat. Brown ran as the 41st vote against Obamacare, promising to vote to filibuster the bill. He never got the chance to cast that vote because the Democrats used the bill that was passed before Brown arrived and never sent it into a conference committee for changes. And the remainder of votes Brown cast were mostly the same as Harry Reid after that until his defeat. Like Michigan, this race might be competitive if Republicans could convince their base to vote for this guy, but his record is well known. Folks in New Hampshire are also not too fond of outsiders that want to come in and run for office. The Democrats will win this race. Toss Up States: Alaska: The primary in Alaska is not until August 19th. This one has a good chance of going Republican, but we will have to see what happens. Colorado: The voters will all be stoned, no doubt. Right now this one is very close and will probably move to the Republican win category. Georgia: Georgia has a runoff election later this month. so, like Alaska, we don’t have a candidate set yet. North Carolina: For now, a toss up. This is one Republicans can take if they get their act together. Republicans will Win the Following States: Arkansas: A Southern state that is leaning Republican. Republicans should win this one. Iowa: Another close one but at this point it is leaning to the Republicans. Kentucky: Some rank this a toss-up. McConnell is not going anywhere. He will do whatever it takes to win. He’s friends with Thad Cochran after all. Louisiana: This one is close. But I think the war on oil, coal and energy will doom Mary Landrieu. Montana: The Republican Daines is up by 15 points. Kansas: Easy Republican hold. Mississippi: It is still not 100% certain that Thad Cochran will be the nominee. Most likely, but Democrats voted in the primary runoff and it is likely going to court. But whichever Republican is on the ballot will win. South Dakota: The Republican would win outright, but a former Democrat has decided to run in this 3 way race which will split the Democrat votes. Republican win. West Virginia: A Republican win here. The Tally Please! Republicans Win 9 Democrats win 6 Toss UPs – 4 So my first analysis shows that the Republicans will add 9 seats to their 41 safe seats for a total of 50. Democrats will win 6 seats to add to their 40 safe seats for a total of 46 seats. There are 4 seats that are going to be very important. Democrats will need to pick up all 4 of the toss up seats and will have a lot of trouble doing so. They will likely end up splitting the 4 toss ups with Republicans. So the likely scenario has the GOP with a 52-48 Senate majority. And the faster the Republicans come together and stop fighting amongst themselves the better. GOP Will win – democratic enthusiasm problem but “war on women” makes it closeWP, 6/26 – (“Democrats have an enthusiasm problem. Big time.”, The Washington Post, 6/26/14, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/26/democrats-have-an-enthusiasm-problem-big-time/?tid=hpModule_ba0d4c2a-86a2-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394)//EX The history-making coalition that delivered the presidency to Barack Obama in 2008 and reelected him in 2012 has a distinct attitude toward the 2014 election: Meh. A new poll from Democratic pollster Democracy Corps finds that just 68 percent of African Americans, Latinos, young people and unmarried women who voted in 2012 and are "likely" to vote in 2014 -- the four key parts of Obama's coalition -- say they are "almost certain" to vote in the upcoming midterm elections. That's up four points from April, when 64 percent said the same. But it's still lagging far behind other voting groups, a combined 85 percent of whom say they are almost certain to vote. The new 17-point gap is up from 15 in April and 11 in March of last year. For comparison's sake, at the tail end of the Democrats' disastrous 2010 campaign, the gap was 22 points. Here's how the data for this election look: We wrote back in April how troubling this news is for Democrats. That's because their 2008 and 2012 coalitions were notable in large part because of these four groups, which don't generally turn out big but did so for Obama. And the effect on the 2014 election is clear. While the less-enthusiastic "Rising American Electorate" (the pollster's name for the Obama coalition) favors Democrats by 19 points, all of the other, more-enthusiastic voter groups combine to favor Republicans by 18 points. And these aren't the only polls to suggest midterm turnout is a looming problem for Democrats. An April AP-GfK poll showed, among those who are strongly interested in politics -- i.e. most apt to vote -- people favored a GOP-controlled Congress 51 percent to 37 percent. Democrats will continue seeking motivation for their voters -- a big reason you've heard so much talk about GOP obstruction, the "war on women," allegations of GOP racism and the Koch brothers. All of these are geared at motivating the unmotivated, who are legion right now. Despite these efforts, many of Democrats' most important voters are still very casual about the need to vote in November. GOP Will win – recent court case cracked Obamacare’s armorPolitico, 6/30 – (Democrats: Hobby Lobby ruling could boost 2014 hopes”, Politico, 6/30/14, http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/hobby-lobby-decision-2014-democrats-changes-108449.html)//EX Monday’s decision “is a disappointment for Democrats, but it does put a big welcome spotlight on Republicans’ support for ‘personhood’ [initiatives] and other measures that would go much further than today’s decision to outlaw common forms of birth control,” said Matt Canter, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee deputy executive director. Republicans, however, are framing the ruling as a victory for religious freedom, and — more germane to their 2014 strategy — another blow to the president and his signature health law. They argue that Democrats can’t count on voters making contraception a priority come November at a time when jobs, the economy and problems with the health law loom large. “Individual news cycles in general don’t shape the election,” a senior GOP strategist said. “If anything, it’s another dent and crack in Obamacare’s armor. If the discussion is about Obamacare, it helps Republicans more than Democrats. If it’s about birth control, then it doesn’t.” The ruling allows for-profit employers with religious objections to opt out of the health law’s contraception coverage mandate. It is relatively narrow and deals with just one small part of the health law, but it is Obamacare opponents’ most important legal victory yet in their efforts to unravel the law. GOP will win – key states, obama’s low job ratings, IRS scandal, hospital crisis, and Iraq policyMDJ, 6/30 – (“GOP chances for Senate rise, but nominess must stay conservative”, The Marietta Daily Journal, 6/30/14, http://mdjonline.com/bookmark/25365871-GOP-chances-for-Senate-rise-but-nominess-must-stay-conservative)//EX But time heals many wounds in politics and often more swiftly than in other walks of life. After all, young politicians like McDaniel have future races to run. And Sen. Cochran has undoubtedly run his last race for a GOP nomination. The big names, such as former Gov. Sarah Palin, who took on the establishment in Mississippi by supporting McDaniel, will undoubtedly be pitching for Cochran in defeating his Democratic opponent. Why? Because as of now, it looks like the GOP might kick the door in and take control of the U.S. Senate. That would mean no more listening to the whiny and arrogant whisperings of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. And it would mean that what now appear to be simply idle threats on policy coming from a Republican-controlled House of Representatives would become serious business with a Republican-controlled Senate. It would be a GOP-led body that could hoist Reid and his fellow Democrats on their own petard of new Senate rules, which were designed to allow a simple majority of members to rule the roost. But before such a fundamental shift in power can occur, prior theories put forth by both Democrats and many in the media must be put to rest. Let’s start with the makeup of the showdowns that will now take place in the states with competitive U.S. Senate contests. The general notion and wishful thinking of the Democrats and their supporters in media was that a collection of zany and unseasoned GOP nominees would create a perfect storm: Democrats, otherwise put at a disadvantage because of an unpopular President Barack Obama, would be able to appeal to moderately conservative independent voters who might fear these “unknown” GOP nominees. But Republicans generally have a crop of candidates in battleground states unlikely to scare away independent voters. A good example can be found in what is still considered the swing state of Georgia. Several potentially strong GOP candidates were eliminated in the state’s first round of primary voting. But so, too, were the candidates who Democrats yearned to face. They hoped for flawed nominees with compromising past statements or with a history of legislative votes that might negatively affect a substantial number of independent voters. But after their late July runoff, Georgia Republicans will have gained as their party’s senatorial nominee either Congressman Jack Kingston or business leader David Perdue. Either will likely become the favorite to defeat Democrat Michelle Nunn in November. Meanwhile, President Obama is becoming a heavier and heavier weight on each of the Democrats in competitive states up for grabs. His job approval rating averages about 41 percent, and there’s plenty of reason to believe it will drop further. The IRS email scandal won’t go away, nor will the crisis at VA hospitals. And the horrific ratings the president is receiving from the public over his hands-off approach to Iraq, plus the obvious loss of U.S. prestige abroad, are deepening into a polling disaster for all Democrats by November. Still, here is a warning for the victorious GOP nominees who will be trying to take control of the Senate this year: Don’t believe, because you won some tight primary contests, you can go back to “business as usual.” Conservatives weren’t enthused by Mitt Romney, and many stayed home on Election Day in 2012. Even if you don’t consider yourself to be one of the “tea party,” you darn well better consider yourself a “patriot.” Run conservative, vote conservative, be conservative or risk losing what appears to be within your grasp. GOP will win – religious freedom after court rulingThe Hill, 6/30 (“Dems put court in their '14 crosshairs”, The Hill, 6/30/14, http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/211009-dems-put-court-in-their-14-crosshairs)//EX Republicans also sought to use the ruling to rally their base, labeling it a major win for religious freedom and a triumph over President Obama. “This reignites the base. It chips away at ObamaCare, and if there exists the idea with Republicans that ObamaCare can be repealed that will ignite the base, get them excited again,” said GOP pollster Chris Wilson, who has polled on the issue for the conservative Family Research Council. GOP will win – plans to appeal to womenFiorina, 6/30 (“How GOP will win in 2014”, Fox News, 6/30/14, http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2014/06/30/path-to-gop-victory-in-2014-focus-on-women-and-strong-ground-game/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+foxnews%2Fopinion+(Internal+-+Opinion+-+Mixed))//EX Our economy has taken a shellacking at the hands of their liberal policies. Entrepreneurship, innovation, and opportunity have given way to Obama’s “new normal” of long-term unemployment, underemployment, and of diminished expectations among hardworking families. No one should be surprised that women consistently cite jobs and the economy as their top concerns. Women are paying the price for this administration’s reckless economic policies. When it comes to economic freedom and opportunity, our Party has the right message. Women know our nation is moving in the wrong direction. They expect more than the status quo under President Obama, and they are not getting it. Our challenge, however, is that too many women still don’t trust the Republican Party to solve our problems, either. This must change. It doesn’t have to be this way. Republicans can no longer wait to close the gender gap. We must transform the way we run our campaigns. We must stand up for our policies, which help women both in the workplace and at home. And we must invest in people, not media consultants. To begin, Republicans should confront, head on, the ridiculous notion that we are engaged in a “war on women.” During the 2012 election, Republicans allowed this notion to remain uncontested. I say, no more. We need to name and to shame every Democratic candidate or group that uses this dishonest, divisive rhetoric in the service of defending terrible policies that leave women out of work, or underemployed. The Republican Party must reach women using more relatable messengers and with fresh messaging, backed by our timeless conservative principles. We must restore traditional modes of outreach and coalition building. Reaching one hundred percent of voters with generic messaging has gotten us nowhere. It is the quality of the conversation that matters. That means more personal engagement and less electronic mass message broadcasting. It means listening instead of “controlling the debate,” and demonstrating the tangible ways in which our conservative policies enhance the lives of every American. This means the Republican Party must put more boots on the ground, not more “Gross Rating Points” on the air. I’m suggesting nothing less than a real dialogue with a segment of our nation that agrees with us on most issues, but too often votes the other way. Like-minded Republican and independent women are the keys to leading this dialogue. Republicans are close to winning the Senate- they are expected to pick up seats in several statesHohmann 7/7/14 (James Hohmann, reporter for Politico, “2014 Senate rankings: Map favors GOP”, http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/2014-senate-elections-republicans-108584.html ) With four months until Election Day, Republicans are as close to winning the Senate as they’ve been since losing it in 2006. Six months ago, the GOP path to the majority was narrower: Republicans essentially had to sweep seven races in states Barack Obama lost in 2012 but where Democrats currently hold seats. Unlikely, in other words. Now Republicans have more options. They’ve landed top recruits to take on first-term senators in New Hampshire and Colorado, nominated credible female candidates in open-seat contests in Michigan and Iowa, protected all of their incumbents from tea party challenges and thwarted more conservative candidates that could have hurt the GOP’s chances in states like North Carolina and Georgia. With the general election field all but set, Republicans are looking to turn the midterms into a national referendum on Obama. Democrats want the focus to be squarely on the candidates, and they’re spending the typically quiet summer months trying to define Republican hopefuls as unlikeable and extreme. Obama’s approval rating continues to hover around his all-time lows, especially in the GOP-leaning states that will decide control of the upper chamber. Obamacare is not as toxic now as during the disastrous HealthCare.gov rollout, but it undeniably remains a drag on Democrats. The jury is still out on the economy: The Commerce Department announced a 2.9 percent decline in first-quarter gross domestic product late last month, but then the Labor Department reported last week that the unemployment rate in June had dropped to 6.1 percent. Republicans are expected to pick up seats in South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana, where longtime Democratic incumbents are retiring or have already resigned. From there, they need to net three more seats to take control of the chamber. Fifty-five senators currently caucus with Democrats, 45 with Republicans. Dems will win but it will be close – womenCNN, 6/30 – (“Do Democrats win by losing Obamacare decision?”, CNN Politics, 6/30/14, http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/06/30/do-democrats-win-by-losing-obamacare-decision/)//EX But some Democrats say there may be a silver lining in the ruling: It could motivate younger women and unmarried women to show up at the polls come November. Exit polls indicate that unmarried and younger women support Democrats over Republicans, but their numbers also traditionally drop from presidential elections to midterm contests. "Young women have been a key component of the Democratic coalition since the administration of George W. Bush, with more than six in 10 of them voting Democratic in House races consistently since 2006," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "But they don't turn out for midterm elections. In 2012, for example, young women represented 10% of all voters, but in 2010, only 5% of the electorate were young women." Democrats have a 55-45 majority in the Senate - 53 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the party. But the party is defending 21 of the 36 seats up for grabs this year, with half of those Democratic-held seats in red or purple states. And Emily's List, a powerful politically active outside group that supports female candidates and lawmakers that favor abortion rights, quick highlighted after the opinion's announcement how important the midterms are when it comes to women voters. "Today's Supreme Court decision is a stark reminder of how important it is for Democrats to keep hold of the Senate. When the future of our judiciary branch and women's access to health care is at stake we need every woman to get out and vote in November," said EMILY's List President Stephanie Schriock. And Ilyse Hogue, President of NARAL Pro-Choice America, said, "We will work tirelessly with our allies and member activists to make sure that the people who would stand between a woman and her doctor are held accountable." The communications director for EMILY's List said the ruling will motivate women to cast ballots come November. "Ninety-nine percent of women of women aged 15-44 have used birth control - this should not be controversial," Jess McIntosh told CNN. "But conservatives in every branch of government are determined to undermine our ability to make our medical decisions on our own – just like men do. Women have decided every election in recent memory. Women were watching today, and it will absolutely be a motivating factor in November." Some conservative women rejected the notion that the ruling will motive female voters to support Democratic candidates come November. Concerned Women for America, a socially conservative group, said that it preserved "religious liberty for everyone, including the women represented by the other side." Alison Howard, the group's communications director, said the ruling would motivate women in a different way: "This is so affirming to those women who believe in freedom and that's bigger than those who believe that taxpayers should fund abortion inducing drugs and contraceptives." And Alice Stewart, a GOP consultant and radio talk show host in Arkansas who was a senior adviser the past two presidential cycles to the Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann presidential campaigns, said, "Here we go again, liberals using the faux war on women argument to distract from the real issue; the real issue here is Obamacare's attempt to undermine our religious liberties.” GOP strategist Ana Navarro sees a balance. "The political spin seems bigger than the decision's bite. I think you can be a woman who uses birth control and still understand that there needs to be a balance that protects religious freedom. I think with this narrowly tailored decision, the court struck that balance," said Navarro, a CNN contributor. The GOP will win, Obama is unpopular right now and Democrats suffer from the Bergdhal scandalJudis 6/12/14 ( John B. Judis, senior editor at The New Republic and a contributing editor to The American Prospect, “Democrats, Don't Dance on Cantor's Grave Because you'll be digging your own” http://www.newrepublic.com/article/118108/senate-2014-why-democrats-will-probably-lose) Obama’s climate initiative may help Democrats in 2016 and is popular in some states that the president carried in 2012, but it will probably not be popular in some of the crucial swing states this November. As the National Republican Senate Committee has noted, Arkansas, Colorado, West Virginia, Michigan, Iowa, Kentucky and Montana—all except Kentucky with Democratic incumbents—depend on coal for more than half their energy needs. Obama’s other initiatives are also not popular in some swing states. In Colorado, 56 percent of voters now oppose the state’s strict gun control laws. In Michigan, a plurality opposed Obama’s gun control proposals. Obama and the Democrats seem poised to suffer from the “six year itch” that the president’s party has usually suffered during midterm elections of a second term. Ronald Reagan’s Republicans lost the Senate in 1986, and George W. Bush’s Republicans lost it in 2006. The exception was Bill Clinton’s Democrats in 1998, who broke even in the Senate and won five House seats. That was because Clinton remained very popular, thanks to a booming economy. His job approval in the weeks before the election was in the low 60 percent range. The impeachment inquiry, which Republicans had hoped would discredit the president and the Democrats, actually helped the Democrats. Southern black voters, who enthusiastically backed Clinton and believed he was being unfairly targeted, turned out in large numbers. But the Democrats’ situation this year is very different. The economy is still in the doldrums, Obama is unpopular, and Republican scandal-mongering is unlikely to generate a backlash. In 1998, many Democrats took offense at the Republican impeachment efforts because they were aimed not merely at censuring Clinton, but at unseating him. To date, the Republicans have not used the Benghazi and Bergdahl scandals to call for Obama’s removal. Instead, they have merely called for investigations. And as recent polls have shown, many Democrats and Independents, as well as Republicans, favor an investigation into Benghazi and are critical of the administration’s deal with the Taliban for Bergdahl’s release. That probably means that the scandals will be a small, and probably temporary, net plus for the Republicans. They will cast a pall over the White House and, with an assist from Fox News, fire up the Republican base. AT: Uniqueness overwhelms the linkDemocrats are using strategies to distance themselves from the national party- there’s a chance they’ll succeedJudis 6/12/14 ( John B. Judis, senior editor at The New Republic and a contributing editor to The American Prospect, “Democrats, Don't Dance on Cantor's Grave Because you'll be digging your own” http://www.newrepublic.com/article/118108/senate-2014-why-democrats-will-probably-lose) The Democrats have not developed a national theme—comparable, say, to the Reagan administration’s “staying the course” in the 1982 election—to rally voters to their cause. Many of the Democratic candidates are trumpeting the party’s support for boosting the minimum wage and for women’s rights—two issues that are popular with voters—but few of the embattled Democrats are running on the White House’s record. With Obama and his programs so unpopular in the key election states, the Democrats in these states are desperately trying to distance themselves from the national party. Congressman Travis Childers, who is likely to face Tea Party favorite McDaniel in Mississippi’s senate race, actually has a very small chance of winning only because he voted against the Affordable Care Act. In Kentucky, Democrat Allison Grimes promised to “fiercely oppose” the president’s climate change plan. While the Republicans are seeking to nationalize the campaign, Democrats like Grimes or Mary Landrieu in Louisiana or Mark Pryor in Arkansas want to make the election all about themselves and not about their party or the President. If these Democrats can pull this off, they might able to hold off the Republican challenge in November. Certainly, polls suggest that candidates like Landrieu, Pryor or Kay Hagan in North Carolina have a chance of winning. But at this point, it seems likely that Obama will have to face a Republican House and Senate next year. That’s a recipe for two more years of gridlock. Directory: wp-content -> uploads -> 2014 2014 -> For want of a nail 2014 -> Stop Militarizing Law Enforcement Act of 2014 2014 -> Ihbb asian Championships 2014 middle school bowl Round 4 First Quarter 2014 -> Ihbb european Championships 2014 Bowl Round 4 First Quarter 2014 -> International History Bee and Bowl 2013-14 Asian Division Question Set Bowl Round Six 2014 -> United states patent and trademark office 2014 -> Coffs harbour eisteddfod vocal syllabus 2014 -> Listen News Programs Schedule pledge now 2014 -> Slow club announce third album complete surrender Download 0.68 Mb. Share with your friends:
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