Bioindicators to assess the importance of different stressors threatening plant species of conservation concern

Correctly ranking the importance of different stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential step in developing successful management strategies. For example, teasing apart threats of introduced earthworms, land-use change, nutrient deposition, acid rain or deer herbivory may require elaborate experiments and development of demographic models. We developed potential alternatives using plant indicators to assess effects of introduced plants, introduced earthworms, deer herbivory and urbanization on native biota. By planting native species into riparian areas affected by rapid urbanization we were able to determine that privet invasion is a larger conservation concern than changes in hydrologic regimes. Planting species into earthworm invaded and uninvaded areas, or areas occupied by different introduced plant species while simultaneously manipulating deer herbivory showed overwhelming effects of deer with little effect of earthworms and invasive plants. We also used indicator species to assess effectiveness of deer sterilization and hunting on ecological goals in suburban deer management. Our results suggest that the single largest threat to conservation in eastern North America are overabundant deer. The planting of bioindicators appears a powerful and easy to use tool to directly assess threats by different stressors as well as habitat suitability for species of conservation concerns.

As global climates warm, species are predicted to shift their ranges poleward or up in elevation. Ecological niche models have been used to predict range shifts and local extirpations under various carbon emissions scenarios. However, these models are typically based on landscape-level climate data, and fail to consider local-scale habitat. In order to accurately predict responses to climate change, it is important that we understand the factors driving habitat selection at multiple spatial scales. We recorded the presence or absence of five species of boreal forest birds via mist netting and audio-visual surveys at 10 field sites in the northeastern United States. We measured 109 habitat characteristics describing plant species composition and habitat structure and combined them with 19 regional climate variables. Using a Principal Component Analysis, we explored the importance of these local- and landscape-scale variables in determining species distributions. The first two principal components accounted for 44% of the total habitat variation, and described differences among sites based on elevation, temperature and precipitation, red spruce (Picea rubens) and balsam fir (Abies balsamea) abundances, and several local habitat variables. Our results suggest that the factors driving habitat selection vary across co-distributed species, and that both local and landscape-scale variables are important when predicting range shifts.

Predictive biodiversity models provide critical information for the study and management of threatened ecosystems. They can also be used to facilitate conflict resolution and improve communication among stakeholders involved in conservation planning. However, model developers rarely collect the robust data necessary to validate their predictions due to expense and effort, making it difficult to compare the on-the-ground utility of alternative models. This is especially important in high human impact areas where threats to biodiversity are complex. We developed a spatially explicit species distribution model for threatened herbaceous meadow plants in an area of intense human development using a GIS framework and existing survey data. We also modeled biodiversity in our study area using the InVEST Biodiversity model, which uses habitat quality and rarity as proxies for biodiversity. We sampled species richness in sites predicted by each model to have high and low plant diversity and compared accuracy between approaches. Field validation can expose key additional variables to include in predictive models, reveal trade-offs between alternative models, and should be a central priority for practitioners developing conservation planning tools.

The problem of institutional fit in social-ecological systems has been empirically documented and conceptually discussed in decades, yet there is still a shortage of research approaches to systematically and quantitatively identify the level of fit. We present a network-centric approach aimed to address this gap in cases where formal and informal interactions between multitudes of actors are at the focus of attention. The approach focuses on identifying patterns of collaborations between different actors managing different areas in a landscape, and then relates these patterns to ecological processes playing out in the landscape. We demonstrate our approach by comparing a social network of municipalities collaborating on wetland management, with the ecologically defined network of interconnected wetlands in the Stockholm Metropolitan Area in Sweden. We specifically test: (1) if interactions between neighboring municipalities are more common than average, and (2), while controlling for such possible neighborhood effect, if municipalities that are managing wetlands that are strongly interconnected interact more than average? A positive outcome on (2) would then imply a tendency towards achieving a good level of fit, whereas a positive outcome on (1) would only imply a tendency that might lead to a generally fair level of fit, however not necessarily particularly well suited for wetland management. A lack of positive outcomes on both (1) and (2) would indicate a lack of fit.

The Chesapeake Futures Report was a collaborative effort of natural and social scientists in 2003 to describe the future condition of the Bay in 2030 given three scenarios of environmental decision-making - status quo, 2003-stated policy commitments, and feasible but ambitious alternatives. Using land-use, nutrient, and ecosystem modeling to visualize the downstream effects of a given course of action, the “Futures” authors gave meaning to decisions being made at the time on land-use, resource use, and conservation. In the status quo scenario, modeling predicted population increases, 10 to 15% increase in nutrient loads, loss of open space, and continued degradation of water quality and fishery resources. Models of the second scenario, with implementation of the Chesapeake 2000 commitment to nutrient load reductions, predicted modest gains in water quality and fishery resources. The feasible alternatives scenario, which included nutrient reductions and green land use planning, would have provided marked improvements in air and water quality and ecosystem benefits. Now, 10 years after the report was published, which course of action have we pursued? Did the report influence policy-makers, and which Chesapeake 2030 are we moving towards? This talk, culminating this symposium addressing the current state of the Bay and continued positive direction of environmental stewardship, will initiate a constructive discussion of Chesapeake Bay environmental issues.

The number of common people visiting natural areas across the globe vastly outnumbers the scientist working in there, and the large numbers of visitors result in large numbers of wildlife sightings. This unrecorded wildlife sightings could be valuable to refine distribution ranges, gain data on habitat use or to identify the expansion of exotic species and their impact, among many other potential uses. With the idea of gathering these sightings, LiveANDES (Advanced Network for Distribution of Endangered Species) was developed to allow individuals to share and visualize their wildlife sightings via a software platform, while at the same time helping to create a global conservation community in The Americas. Detecting, uploading and sharing photos, notes, videos or audio from endangered species into LiveANDES is an innovative way to contribute to biodiversity conservation by promoting citizen science. LiveAndes has an input option for mobile phones. The value of data sharing for wildlife locations mainly refers to the need of mapping the presence and distribution of endangered species to assess their conservation status according to international standards (IUCN Red list). Currently, Live Andes is available for all terrestrial vertebrates of Chile and a searchable database by ecological, administrative and protected areas can be displayed for the whole country. Cross-country efforts are underway to develop the platform in Bolivia and North America for data sharing and mapping.

Our previous research has shown that Caribbean reef sharks are significantly more abundant inside marine reserves when compared to similar fished reefs on the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef. We now pose the question: what effect have marine reserves had on the abundance of other elasmobranchs, such as batoids? Rays are not commercially targeted in Belize therefore our null hypothesis is that reserves have no effect on the relative abundance of these species. Baited Remote Underwater Video (BRUV) surveys were conducted on the forereef at four sites along the barrier reef in Belize, at two reserves and two fished reefs (N=50 per site). Of the combined 100 deployments at the reserve sites 13 batoids were observed compared to 58 observed at the fished sites. We constructed a generalized linear model (GLM) to explain the presence of batoids on BRUVs, which included "marine reserve", "location nested within reserve", habitat characteristics and environmental variables as potential factors. The GLM found that the factor "marine reserve" had a significant negative effect on the presence of batoids, while none of the habitat or environmental variables had a significant influence. We discuss ongoing research aimed at explaining this pattern, including potential mechanisms such as (1) mesopredator release due to reduced predation from reef sharks, (2) altered batoid behavior due to intimidation by sharks inside reserves and (3) increased competition for prey inside reserves.

Human and environmental health relies partly on federal agencies that set regulatory standards for pesticide use and registration. Decisions based on the best available data benefits regulators, the public, and natural world. However, current assessments for registering or reregistration pesticides can eliminate much to most of the research in the published, peer-reviewed literature allowing regulatory decisions to be based on only a few studies that are often conducted or directly funded by the pesticide manufacturer who is unambiguously impacted by the conclusions reached in these studies, thereby representing a clear case of conflict of interest. Our objectives are to 1) highlight how conflicts of interest can compromise regulation using the herbicide atrazine as a case study, particularly given its effects reported in the literature for amphibians and other vertebrates; 2) compare conclusions reached by regulators or stake holders versus independent scientists; 3) examine why studies are included or excluded in regulatory decision-making; and 4) offer recommendations for improving the regulatory process. We all have an interest in ensuring that regulatory decisions are based on all available research with sound experimental designs lacking conflicts of interest. Although current practices fall short in the US and other countries, a regulatory process that removes conflicts of interest is both plausible and essential to protect and manage human and environmental health.

Human and environmental health relies partly on federal agencies that set regulatory standards for pesticide use and registration. Decisions based on the best available data benefits regulators, the public, and natural world. However, current assessments for registering or reregistration pesticides can eliminate much to most of the research in the published, peer-reviewed literature allowing regulatory decisions to be based on only a few studies that are often conducted or directly funded by the pesticide manufacturer who is unambiguously impacted by the conclusions reached in these studies, thereby representing a clear case of conflict of interest. Our objectives are to 1) highlight how conflicts of interest can compromise regulation using the herbicide atrazine as a case study, particularly given its effects reported in the literature for amphibians and other vertebrates; 2) compare conclusions reached by regulators or stake holders versus independent scientists; 3) examine why studies are included or excluded in regulatory decision-making; and 4) offer recommendations for improving the regulatory process. We all have an interest in ensuring that regulatory decisions are based on all available research with sound experimental designs lacking conflicts of interest. Although current practices fall short in the US and other countries, a regulatory process that removes conflicts of interest is both plausible and essential to protect and manage human and environmental health.

Perhaps no species is more emblematic of transboundary management issues occurring at the borders of protected areas as wolves. While protection of wolves within Yellowstone and Denali National Park provides the opportunity for thousands of visitors to see wolves each year, these wide ranging carnivores often travel across park boundaries. Mortality of individual wolves from frequently viewed packs due to hunting or trapping outside these parks has sparked widespread controversy, prompting concern regarding the impact of these losses. Loss of breeding individuals in particular could lead to pack dissolution, reduction in reproductive capacity of the pack, or behavioral changes at the individual or pack level. All of these factors can alter wolf viewing opportunities. We used 25 years of radio telemetry data in Denali National Park to quantify the effects of breeder loss on wolf pack dissolution and wolf sightings along the park road. Following breeder mortality, packs dissolved in 25% of cases. Pack size prior to breeder loss strongly influenced the probability of pack dissolution. When pack territory overlapped the park road, wolf sightings decreased following breeder loss in 83% of cases. These results indicate that wolf harvest adjacent to park boundaries may disrupt pack structure and reduce wolf viewings within parks when breeders are lost.

For rare and elusive wildlife, the scale of monitoring efforts is often limited by expensive methodologies, sampling inconsistencies and the logistics of large spatial and temporal scales. Detection of rare events at scale is particularly limited by variable detection biases and limited sampling efforts. For vocalizing wildlife, automated acoustic sensors are one way to greatly expand sampling effort and reduce biases. We illustrate the limits and costs of current approaches to monitor the endangered Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), comparing traditional human audio-visual surveys with automated acoustic sensors combined with a semi-automated analysis approach. We selected seven long term monitoring sites in the Santa Cruz Mountains, California, where Marbled Murrelets are at low abundance. Automated sensors and analysis on average detected more murrelets at each site (t(df=6)=1.34, p=0.11), and measured relative activity at similar levels (R2=0.85, p=

The southeastern U.S. population of wood storks (Mycteria americana) was declared endangered in 1984 following declines in the Florida Everglades. Their range and population have since increased and a change in status from endangered to threatened is likely. Despite increases elsewhere, wood storks still do poorly in the Everglades. We combined a habitat suitability index (HSI) with a spatially explicit population model to explore how Everglades restoration may influence Everglades nesting and population dynamics for the larger population. Using satellite telemetry data from 2004-2011, we compared vegetation and daily hydrological characteristics at used and random locations in the Everglades using a proportional hazards model. Resulting HSI values were used as a covariate in a multistate state model to evaluate the probability of birds leaving the Everglades. HSI-dependent transition probabilities were then incorporated into a demographic model to explore how increasing habitat quality in the Everglades influenced the persistence of birds during the nesting season. Preliminary results indicate that persistence increased with habitat suitability. Increasing HSI by 50% more than doubled the number of chicks produced in the Everglades and increased the size of the SE US population by roughly 8%, indicating that despite shifts in nesting away from the Everglades over the past 40 years, restoration should have positive effects on the population as a whole.

American Oystercatchers, a species whose population is of conservation and management concern, nest on coastal beaches where they are subject to anthropogenic disturbance. Therefore, we assessed the effects of a variety of human activities occurring at Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina on nesting American Oystercatchers by looking for changes in behavior, physiology, and reproductive success. We expanded on-going monitoring of oystercatchers at Cape Lookout by supplementing visual observations with continuous video, audio, and heart rate recording at nests. Oystercatchers were equally likely to be on their nests before and during aircraft fly-overs, but were on their nests less often during off-road vehicle and pedestrian events than before those events occurred. Low-altitude military flights were the only human activity to significantly increase heart rate of incubating oystercatchers. Reproductive success during study seasons was comparable to or higher than past seasons. The number of daily off-road vehicle events was correlated to decreased daily survival rates and success of nests. Current levels of aircraft overflights are unlikely to affect nesting success during the incubation period. In contrast, off-road vehicles appear to affect both the incubation behavior and nest hatching success of American Oystercatchers.

Habitat fragmentation is one of the most pervasive threats to global biodiversity because it isolates populations into small, discrete habitat patches, which promotes loss of species and genetic diversity via local population extinctions, inbreeding, and genetic drift. We conducted a year-long systematic survey of the fruit-feeding butterfly communities of two large forest reserves and five small sacred forest groves in Ghana, West Africa. Few ecosystems of the world are considered as critically imperiled, or fragmented as these Upper Guinean forests. Overall we found species richness to be higher in the larger forest reserves. Nonetheless, in all but one case, the small sacred groves retained 84-93% of this species diversity despite accounting for less than 1-10% of the total area of the forest reserves. We also compared the patterns of mtDNA CO1 variation of three representative focal butterfly species that differ with respect to their predicted dispersibilities, e.g. based on their size, habitat specificity, and flight patterns. Patterns of genetic differentiation across species were broadly coincident with our predicted hierarchy of relative species dispersibility. But as before, there was limited evidence of biodiversity (genetic) erosion from the sacred groves, even of the species most impacted by fragmentation. These small community-based, indigenous conservation reserves are clearly currently functioning as valuable repositories of genetic and species diversity.

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