Aff 1ac pgms
Download 493.63 Kb.
|
XT: Oil Will Run OutWe are running out of oil Wingo, 4 – 22-year veteran of the computer, academic, and space communities also an integral force in the use of commercial systems for use in space and flew the first Macintosh on the Space Shuttle as experiment controller, received degree in Engineering Physics at the University of Alabama in Huntsville where he won honors for his academic publications and for his unique approach to small satellite development, Founder & President of SkyCorp Incorporated and has developed a patented approach to the development of highly capable spacecraft manufactured on orbit on the Space Shuttle or International Space Station (David, July 1, 2004, “Moonrush” p. 38-40) JV There is a wide divergence between estimates that seems to be based upon the level of confidence in data. The data above is in the middle of most of the estimates that my research has uncovered. There is some fairly wide uncertainty related to additional possible reserves of oil and gas on the outer continental shelves. Basically, beyond the "known oil", the undiscovered oil, gas, and Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) columns above are based upon statistical evidence and the validity of that evidence is at best speculative (Undisc above is for undiscovered) What this all means is that, between the optimists represented by the Aramco report and the U.S. government report. If you add all of the oil in Table 3.5 and divide by the average forecasted daily demand (2.29 trillion barrels divided by 36 billion barrels per year [100 million barrels per day] oil completely runs out in 62 years. Long before complete depletion, the peak amount of oil that can be pumped will decline. This is called the Hubbert peak, from the oil field engineer that first did a study on how long it will be before the maximum rate that oil can be extracted begins to decline. One thing that the above numbers make absolutely clear, the amount of oil and gas that remains to be discovered is less than what we know of today based upon the optimistic statistics presented here. This inevitably leads to the end of the oil economy well before the year 2100. The Global Pessimists In an article recorded on CNN.com in October of 2003, it was reported that a group of scientists from Sweden, led by Professor Kjell Alekett have come to the conclusion that oil production levels will peak in about ten year’s time and that current estimates of the world's oil reserves are only about 20% of it actually exists. The article makes the statement: Alekett said that his team had examined data on oil and gas reserves from all over the world and we were facing a very critical situation globally "The thing we are surprised of is that people in general are not aware of the decline in supplies and the extent to which it will affect production . .. "The decline of oil and gas will affect the world population more than climate change will According to the Uppsala team, nightmare predictions of melting ice caps and searing temperatures will ever come to pass because the reserves of oil and gas just are not big enough to create that much carbon dioxide (CO2) Alekett said that as well as there being inflated estimates of probable finds, some countries in the Middle East had exaggerated the amount of reserves they had. lot of these pessimistic estimates can be traced back to a Dr. Colin Campbell, a petroleum consultant who has written books and papers on the subject, and now is working with the M. King Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies at the Colorado School of Mines. In a document called, "Forecasting Global Oil Supply 2000-2050," Dr. Campbell uses these numbers for oil production in Billions of Barrels illustrated in Table 3.6: While the numbers for reserves are similar to the USGS data, the undiscovered reserves are only a fraction of what the CSGS and the Saudi's estimate, There is a good reason for this and it is illustrated in this excerpt from Dr. Campbell's Hubbert report For example, in an unknown, untested basin in East Greenland, it concluded that there was a 95% probability of finding more than zero, namely at least one barrel and a 5% probability of finding more than 112 billion barrels. A mean value of 47 billion was computed from this range. Since the numbers were quoted to three decimal places, the reason could be forgiven for assuming them to be accurate. But a moment’s reflection would question the very concept of a subjective 5% probability: In plain language, it was a guess that could as well be the half or the double, yet it entered the calculations distorting the critical Mean value. We are now seven years into the study period and can compare the forecast with what has been found in the real world. The USGs forecast as a Mean estimate, that 674 Gb are to be found between 1995-2025, which means an average of 25 Gb a year. So far, the average has been only 10 Gb, when above average performance should be expected because the larger fields are usually found first because they are the biggest targets This means that the picture drawn from the US Geological Survey report, and the Aramco report, is well biased toward the "hope and a prayer" end of the spectrum of oil discovery. This is further illustrated by a graph of oil discoveries from 1950 through 2000, followed by the Hubbert Report projections For those who are used to looking at graphs of data, Figure 3.1 reveals a disturbing trend. The dotted lines represent three different scenarios related to future oi I discoveries. The top line would be a very optimistic scenario, interestingly close to one that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change OPCC) endorses. This was revealed in the CNN.com article where the IPCC estimates oil reserves at up to 18,000 billion barrels, which is well outside often realm of possibility but forms the basis for a lot of global warn1ing research. The middle line represents the Aramco and USGS scenarios. The bottom dotted line represents the 95% confidence level (Proven reserves in Aramco terminology). The truth is probably between the lower of the two lines, less optimistic than the USGS but more optimistic than what Dr. Campbell estimates. Using this as a basis. or even the more optimistic scenario of the USGS, there is a big difference between the eventual depletion of oil and the peak of oil production. Campbell speaks of this: The critical issue is not so much when oil will eventually run out, but rather when production will reach a peak and begin to decline, which will represent a major watershed for the world’s economy In the presentation by Aramco. their estimate is that the peak of oil production, even at a rate of 12 million barrels per day, would not happen until 2054, however, this is predicated upon the most optimistic assumptions, and even Aramco only commits to 2033 as the end of their production plateau in interviews with the popular press. The trouble with the world economy will come far before the depletion of oil; it will begin with the end of the plateau of oil production (which means that beyond that point, whatever production level exists at that time can no longer be maintained). According to Campbell, the end of this production plateau could come as soon as 2020, While he has set his target as early as 2005 and was wrong, clearly this is a matter of global concern and should be debated and addressed in a forceful manner. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 493.63 Kb. Share with your friends:
|