Anthropic Bias Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy Nick Bostrom



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Case 2. The messenger decided to find out whether God created . So he travels to the realm of physical existence and looks until he finds , and reports this back to you.

In Case 1, the messenger’s tidings do not in general give you any reason to believe hM. He was bound to bring back news about some universe, and the fact that he tells you about rather than some other universe is not significant, unless has some special feature F. (More on this proviso shortly.)

In Case 2 on the other hand, the fact that the messenger tells you that exists is evidence for hM. If the messenger selected randomly from the class of all possible universes, or from some sizeable subclass thereof (for example only big bang universes with the same laws of nature as in our universe, or only universes which contain more good than evil), then the finding that God created suggests that God created many universes.


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