Anthropic Bias Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy Nick Bostrom
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Our actual epistemic situation is not analogous to the angel’s in Case 2. It is not as if we first randomly selected  from a class containing both actual and non-actual possible universes and then discovered that – lo and behold! – actually exists. The fact that we know whether exists surely has everything to do with it actually existing and we being among its inhabitants. There is an observation selection effect amounting to the following: direct observation occurs only of universes that actually exist. Case 1 comes closer to modeling our epistemic situation in this respect, since it mirrors this selection effect.
However, Case 1 is still an inadequate model because it overlooks another observational effect. The messenger could have retrieved information about any of the actual universes, and the angel could have found out about some universe  that doesn’t contain any observers. If there are no angels, gods or heavenly messengers, however, then universes that don’t contain observers are not observed. Assuming the absence of extramundane observers, the selection effect restricts what is observed not only to the extent that non-actual universes are not observed but actual universes that don’t contain any observers are also not observed. This needs to be reflected in our model. If we want to continue to use the creation story, we therefore need to modify it as follows:
Directory: preprints preprints -> Digitally-assisted discovery and proof preprints -> Reorienting the Logic of Abduction preprints -> Supplementary Material Table 1 Download 9.31 Mb. Share with your friends:
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