Anthropic Bias Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy Nick Bostrom
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P(M|E) = P(M)
Since by definition P(M|E’
) = P(M|E), this implies:
P(M|E’
) < P(M|E’) (*)
Because
of the symmetry of the
:s, P(M|E’
) =
c
, for every
, for no
ground has been given for why
some
of the universes
would have given more reason
,
had it been the fine-tuned
,
for believing M
, than would any other
similarly fine-tuned. Since E’
implies the disjunction
, this together with (*) implies:
Directory:
preprints
preprints -> Digitally-assisted discovery and proof
preprints -> Reorienting the Logic of Abduction
preprints -> Supplementary Material Table 1
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) = P(M|E), this implies:
:s, P(M|E’
) = c, for every 
, this together with (*) implies: