Ask Baseball America By James Bailey



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February 18, 2000

Considering how quiet it’s been around here today, it’s amazing I haven’t been able to get this column done until now. But it’s always something, as they say.


To make up for the delay, I’ve answered five–count ’em–five big questions for you. Even threw in a fantasy baseball question. Please don’t now besiege me with fantasy baseball questions, and don’t feel bad if yours doesn’t get answered. I get so many of them and they often don’t seem to be of general interest, so I tend to avoid answering them. I just read one when I was in the right mood, I guess, so you got one today.
I know, I know, the Seattle Top 10 list is coming soon. But I would like to know Baseball America's take on Seattle's young prospect Chris Snelling. He hit .306, with 10 homers and just 24 strikeouts in 265 at-bats! He did as good or better as Josh Hamilton and the likes (just 24 strikeouts! Can you believe that?) And he just turned 18 last December. Not to mention he played in a league above most first year players. The thing is, I never hear much about him. So what's wrong? Is there something I don't see here? Please let me know!
Thanks,

Brian B.


There is nothing wrong with Snelling, and it’s not like we’ve ignored the guy. He was, after all, the No. 5 prospect on our Northwest League Top 10 last fall and we’ve had Northwest League and Mariners reports on the guy. We know he’s out there and what he can do. We even know he was the MVP this winter in the abridged (17-game) Australian Baseball League season.
And, Brian, just for you, here’s a secret. Snelling is No. 8 on the Mariners Top 10 list. He does a lot of things to excite the Mariners, who describe him as a Lenny Dykstra-type. He shows great instincts for the game, despite his youth. He can run, he can hit. He can do everything at least average and some things better than that. That adds up to a player with no holes in his game.
You will hear more about Snelling in the coming months. In the meantime, try not to panic, okay Brian.
I have a question about two minor leaguers who have gotten very little respect in top ten lists despite posting some pretty eye-popping numbers. The first one is Orioles pitching prospect John Stephens. Stephens allowed just 148 hits in 170 1/3 innings in the Sally League, struck out 217 and walked only 36. Yet he doesn't even appear among the top 15 prospects on your Orioles list, nor among the top 10 on your list of Sally League prospects. I think the biggest knock against him is that he doesn't throw very hard (high 80s), but anyone who puts together a 6:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in low-A ball at the age of 20 must have pretty decent stuff.
The other player is Ken Harvey, a first base prospect with Kansas City. Harvey led the NCAA in batting in 1999 and compiled an OPS over 1.400 for Nebraska. After being drafted in the fifth round, Harvey led the Northwest League in batting, OBP and SLG. Yet he received only an honorable mention (No. 14) on your Royals prospect list, and did not appear at all on the Northwest League top ten list.
I realize there are probably other factors involved with these two players that make them less appealing as prospects. I'm just wondering what the scouts see that isn't translating into the numbers these guys are putting up.
Thanks for a very entertaining and informative column and web site.
Mike Glander
Stephens did have an exceptional year at Class A Delmarva last year, but try low 80s for his fastball, not high 80s. That’s the big knock on him right there. He’s one of those guys who will have to prove himself at every level. That’s not to say he won’t be successful, but there aren’t a lot of pitchers who are productive big leaguers with an 81-82 mph fastball.
How Stephens has succeeded thus far is by knowing how to pitch. He throws a great changeup and a good curveball and he knows what to do with both of them. If he posts similar numbers at a higher level this year, he’ll open a few more eyes up.
Also keep in mind that the Orioles had seven first-round picks last year and their organization is reasonably deep in prospects at the moment, so for him to get squeezed out of their list isn’t necessarily a bad reflection on his stock.
The Royals are another organization deep in talent, which is one reason Harvey was No. 14 on their list. The biggest thing he needs to improve to be considered a Top 10 talent in their organization is his defense. He went to instructional league last fall to work on his defense, but had to leave early when he broke a bone in his foot.
Harvey certainly put on an impressive show with the bat last year, when he hit .478 in college and .397 at Spokane, but the reststops on the highway to the big leagues are filled with short-season slugging sensations. Harvey needs to continue hitting in a full-season league this year and show that he can be an adequate defensive first baseman.
Just wondering if there was a specific reason why Lyle Overbay did not even crack the top 15 for the Diamondbacks? He seemed to make a very impressive debut by breaking the century mark in RBIs.
Thanks,

John Bischoff


See my answer on Harvey, above. Overbay is a little more mobile around first base, having been an outfielder in college, but he’s got a lot to learn at the position. I don’t want to take anything away from what either he or Harvey accomplished with the bat last year, because they had great seasons. But they both need to continue to hit like that if they don’t bring much to the table defensively. They are definitely guys that bear watching, but at this point we weren’t quite ready to rank them as Top 10 prospects.
Hi, I'm an East Texas resident and former baseball player. I'm curious what ever happened to former Carthage High School standouts Kip Harkrider (Univ. of Texas) and Adam Leggett (Georgia Tech). Whom did they get drafted by and how are they doing today?
Thanks,

Brent Vincent

Marshall, Texas
Harkrider was taken by the Dodgers in the fifth round of the 1997 draft. He spent the entire 1999 season on the disabled list after hitting .239-3-40 at Double-A San Antonio in 1998.
Leggett was a 14th round pick of the Angels in ’97. He split his time last year between Class A Lake Elsinore and Double-A Erie. He hit .243-3-25 in 185 at-bats at Lake Elsinore and .167-1-6 in 72 at-bats at Erie.
I play in a NL only league and we can freeze 18 players from last year’s team as we head into this year's draft. I have three great prospects–Pat Burrell, Chad Hermansen and Ben Petrick–on my roster right now. While I know all three of these will do well eventually, I'm not sure I can afford to keep 3 guys who aren't contributing from the beginning. Can you give me some input on which of these I should keep and what you think they'll do?
Thanks,

Eric Platner


I’d rank them in the order of Burrell, Petrick, Hermansen. Burrell has the best bat of all three and I think will be the most productive from the start. I can see him getting up to 400 at-bats in Philadelphia this season. Petrick appears to be getting squeezed out of the major league picture in Colorado this year, but he’s got a good future, and it’s tough to find good offensive catchers. He should even help you out in stolen bases, which makes him rare for his position.
Hermansen has a lot of talent, but it could take him awhile to be successful in the big leagues. He cut down on his strikeouts last year at Triple-A Nashville, but still walked just 35 times in 496 at-bats. Guys who don’t show a lot of patience at the plate in the minor leagues tend to struggle their first couple of years in the major leagues. He also looks to be facing a fight for playing time in Pittsburgh, where the Pirates have insanely handed Wil Cordero the starting right field job. With that kind of thinking they should be well out of the race by June, so they can feel free to work Hermansen into the lineup at that point.



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