Ask Baseball America By James Bailey



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February 21, 2000

Well, I guess at least four people have read the Mariners Top 10 since we put it up yesterday. We’ve already gotten a bunch of questions about it. So I’ll tackle those today. But first, let’s start with a timely question about a quiet little trade made this weekend that I think has a chance to be an interesting deal, especially for the Athletics.


I wanted to get some more information about Brett Laxton the pitcher that was sent to the Royals for Jeremy Giambi. I know he was not on you A's Top 10 Prospects list and just wanted to know how poor a trade the great Herk Robinson has made this time.
Norm
Norm sounds like a bitter Royals fan. Maybe he has reason to be. I’d have to say I like this deal better from Oakland’s side. Laxton was the No. 12 prospect on their list, and the A’s have a deep system, so that’s not too shabby. But I am a big Giambi fan. I think the guy is going to hit if he gets a full-time shot. The Royals seemed to really get down on him because his defense wasn’t very good. But I think he’s still got a lot of value.
Anyway, back to Laxton. He’s a 26-year-old righthander who has posted solid numbers in his three full seasons in the A’s organization. He was Baseball America’s Freshman of the Year in 1993 at Louisiana State and was one of the heroes as LSU won the College World Series that year. He slid a bit as his college career progressed. After having been a fourth-round pick of the Padres in 1992, he slipped to the 24th-round in 1996, when the A’s picked him. He struggled through an 0-5, 7.71 season at short-season Southern Oregon that first year.
But then he bounced back in 1997 and showed that he really was a guy worth keeping an eye on. He had experienced a lot of minor injuries in college and probably had something of a dead arm in his first year in pro ball. Since that time he’s climbed steadily through the system, and reached the big leagues for three games last year.
Laxton, whose father Bill pitched in the major leagues in the ’70s, throws a low-90s fastball, a slider and a changeup. He has a chance to make the Royals staff this year. Still, I like Giambi more.
Now for the Mariners questions.
How did OF Alex Fernandez get left completely off the Mariners Top 15 Prospects (in favor of Jordan Zimmerman, no less)? Could it have been the questions regarding is defense, that caused this? In my opinion, he's definitely one of the top young guys we've got. I've got a couple other complaints I won't bore you with (you're welcome) but, overall, nice job BA. Keep up the GREAT work.
JonBlaze36@aol.com
I just read the Mariners' top prospects list and overall, I am pretty happy. I do have a few questions about some players. I was wondering why Jordan Zimmerman and Rafael Soriano made it when Enmanuel Ulloa, Alex Fernandez and Craig Anderson did not. I really believe that Ulloa and Fernandez deserved to be on the list. Is there a reason that they were kept off?
Thanks,

Ian
Dear BA:


Just reviewed your Top 10 list for the Seattle Mariners, and was quite surprised not to see listed OF Alexander Fernandez, even as far down as the 15th slot. Wasn't Fernandez the youngest player in high A last year (California League), and didn't he more than hold his own there as a legitimate five-tool prospect (.282, 14 HR, 29 DB, 21 SB, solid defense)? Have I missed something?
Rick Whitt

Washington, D.C.


Hey James. I read the scouting report on Chris Snelling and as you probably know now I am a Mariners follower. I was wondering about another prospect who played with Snelling in Everett. What’s the deal on shortstop Ruben Castillo? I saw him play a few times and he looked very smooth at short. How do the M's see him in the future?
Thanks, Craig
Let me start with Jordan Zimmerman, who seems to be taking some shots from the Mariners fans out there. The Mariners really like his future as a lefty out of the pen. In his first year of relieving, he posted great numbers at Double-A New Haven in 1999 (1.09 ERA, 33 strikeouts in 33 innings). He’s not going to be an all-star, but he’s got the potential to be a solid reliever in the big leagues for a number of seasons. In that regard he’s similar to Sean Spencer, who came in at No. 15, one slot behind Zimmerman.
Zimmerman has battled injuries throughout his career since signing as a draft-and-follow in 1995. He missed his first two years following back surgery. Then in 1998 he missed time with a shoulder cartilage tear. And last year he sprained his ankle after stepping on a suitcase. Maybe not the guy you want picking your lottery numbers. But assuming he gets over that, he throws two average pitches in his fastball and slider, and the Mariners think he’ll be valuable to them.
Soriano kind of came from nowhere in a way, but the Mariners are really excited about how he throws and what he did last season in his first shot at pitching.
As to Fernandez, he’s an 18-year-old outfielder (turns 19 in May) who did post solid numbers in the California League last year. He was a near-miss for the list and I’ll certainly be watching him closely this season, as apparently will a number of Mariners fans out there.
Ulloa was on the list last year, at No. 11, after he had walked just two batters and struck out 66 in 46 innings of work in 1998. His strikeout numbers were impressive again in 1999 (98 in 88 innings, with 36 walks), but for him to really make things work his control needs to be unbelievable, like it was in ’98. His stuff isn’t exceptional, and he needs to do a better job of missing bats than he did last year (90 hits in those 88 innings) if he’s going to thrive. He’s another near-miss, probably in the Top 20.
Anderson is a guy a lot of people compare to Jamie Moyer. He has great control, but doesn’t throw real hard. His changeup has a chance to become an outstanding pitch for him, but a young lefthander who throws in the mid-80s will have to prove himself at each level, and Anderson has four more levels to climb in the system.
Castillo is a good athlete who played well at shortstop at short-season Everett after opening the season at Class A Wisconsin, where he struggled. Typical of many young players, he needs to work on his consistency both in the field and at bat.
Fernandez has a higher ceiling than Zimmerman, but that brings in the question of how do you weigh ceiling players vs. role players who are more likely to reach and stay in the big leagues. The ceiling guys are definitely more exciting, but you can’t completely ignore the role guys. If a guy like Zimmerman turns in a five-year big league career, which might seem like a modest career to many, he would have to qualify as one of the team’s top 15 prospects. No. 10 Willie Bloomquist also falls into that category. He’s not really a tools player who will dazzle anyone with his raw talent. But he knows how to play the game and it’s easy to picture him working his way into a decent big league career.
It can be tough to balance ceiling players vs. role players. Sometimes the players who seem to have the surest track to stardom are the ones most likely to become big busts. I tried to make room for both camps when I put the Mariners list together. Time will tell if I wish I had thrown Fernandez in there instead of Zimmerman, etc. But for now, I’m satisfied with the way it came out.



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