Ask Baseball America By James Bailey



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March 1, 2000

Good morning. My question to you is, why are you reading this when you could be checking out the Top 100 Prospects or the 2000 draft order? Have you already read both of those? Okay, then you may continue reading today's column.


Today we have just one question. One question that I answered at length, as it was on a topic of some interest to me. As many of you know, we've been following the Wilson Betemit case pretty closely here. It's still too early to tell how that whole thing is going to unfold in the end, but at least one reader doesn't seem to rooting for Betemit to win his case.
So let me get this straight. Wilson Betemit perpetrates a fraud, willingly, knowingly or not, on the team he originally signed with by submitting papers that he was "of age," and he now has a legal right to try to ask for more money? What's up with that?
Kathy Parsons

Lansing MI


That’s a valid question. But by the same token, the Braves sign a player who is the equivalent of a first-round pick, two years before baseball’s rules allow, get caught but still get to keep him, and this is okay with you? What's up with that?
All I'm saying is, there are at least two sides to the story. Maybe it doesn't seem right that a player could try to get out of his contract four years later because he thinks he can get more money. But these things are never as simple as we’d like to think.
Betemit clearly was a participant in this, but in order for me to buy that he "perpetrated a fraud," I'd have to be convinced the Braves didn't realize he was younger than 16. In most of these cases, it seems clear that both sides are involved to some degree.
The Braves aren’t the only team that ever signed an underage player. Underage signings are one of the worst-kept secrets in the baseball world. We have proof that three other teams have done so, as the Devil Rays (Jossephang Bernhardt), Marlins (Ricardo Aramboles) and Dodgers (Adrian Beltre) have been punished by Major League Baseball as well. It's the way things work. Or at least, the way they used to work if Major League Baseball's new policies are having any effect.
So we have a system in which teams, or representatives of teams--whether the front office is aware of everything that goes on is debatable--regularly scout 14- and 15-year-old players. In order to sign them all they needed was false documentation, and from everything we’ve heard that’s easy to come by, especially in the Dominican Republic.
And let’s not forget about the agents, who have also discovered the potential of foreign players in recent years. But have you seen anyone fighting for a Dominican player who wouldn’t bring in a huge bonus if he became a free agent?
Of course not, because there’s nothing in it for them. That’s fair enough because they’re businessmen. Like everyone else involved in this mess, they have an interest in jumping in, whether it's the challenge, the notoriety, the thrill of David vs. Goliath, the money or whatever else motivates them.
When someone does something against the rules, you have to ask yourself why they do it. Why would a team sign a player who's not yet eligible to play? In Betemit's case he didn't really have a good season until he was 17 anyway. He's not going to get to the big leagues much quicker because he signed early. The incentive for a major league club is to sign the player before one of the other 29 teams can, and to do it quietly so another team can’t drive up the price.
If you're a Dominican living in poverty and looking for an opportunity to play major league baseball, are you going to ask a lot of questions if a scout comes along and offers you $10,000 or $20,000 (or in Betemit's case $32,500)?
Yes, teams are giving these players an opportunity. But they're also taking advantage of the situation to bring talent in at a price far below what they would pay in the United States. Betemit was the No. 2 prospect in the Appalachian League last year and is No. 99 on our Top 100 Prospects list. Had he been eligible for the draft, it's fair to say that he would have been taken in the first round. Almost every first-rounder last year signed for at least a million dollars.
So should Betemit, or any other young player who signed for a pittance, be able to become a free agent the moment it seems he’s worth a million bucks? That's not an easy question either. The Braves have invested money in Betemit's development, and maybe he's turned into a good prospect because of their efforts. Should they be left with nothing?
I think the answer is yes. Nothing against the Braves, who have one of the best organizations in the game. But if you know you risk losing a player if you sign him too early, that gives you more incentive to wait. Because a $100,000 fine and a little bad press aren't going to change anyone's signing habits.

February 28, 2000

Three days and counting until spring training games get underway. Then maybe we can see some things happening in Florida and Arizona to determine who is stepping forward to win jobs. I think it's hilarious that each year at this time you read about 50 stories in which a player says he's in the best shape of his life this year and he's expecting to have a great season.


As for people who won't have a great season, Darryl Strawberry just won't go away. People keep on finding interesting ways of working him into their questions, like our first writer, who somehow envisions Strawman in a Team USA uni.
Any chance of seeing some major leaguers (from teams who are clearly out of the playoff picture by September) on the U.S. Olympic Team this year? How about players on the 40-man rosters? Any chance Strawberry would play? He probably won't have much else to do besides play in an independent league.
James Sullivan
I can guarantee you will not see major league players leave during the season for the Olympics for a couple of reasons. No. 1, if you're the Cardinals and you're out of the race, are you going to let Mark McGwire leave for two weeks in September and watch your attendance drop off by 30 percent? Not likely. No. 2, how fair is it to have contending teams play against a second-division club with three of its best players in Australia? Hypothetically, the Mets and Giants are both battling for the final playoff spot in the NL. The Giants play the Expos the week before everyone leaves for the Olympics and the Mets play the Expos during the Olympics. Is it fair to the Giants that the Mets get to face Montreal's B-squad? (I just made up that example and didn't look through the schedule for exact dates, but you get the picture.)
I'm sure there are other reasons--like it hasn't been worked out by the union, which is really the only reason that matters (and that puts the kibosh on all 40-man roster players, since they’re in the union).
As for Strawberry, they have this thing in the Olympics called drug testing. Enough said.
Speaking of Straw, this reader had a suggestion of another player to throw into the Yankees DH mix.
Why not Alfonso Soriano? He's ready, could get thrown in the left field mix, and would provide Torre a lot of flexibility on the roster. (And as much as I like both Rock and the King, he's a better hitter right now than either one!)
Matt Dodge
Okay, hold on a minute there. You're telling me a kid who hit .183 with two home runs in 82 at-bats at Triple-A last season is ready to do a better job than Jim Leyritz, Tim Raines or Roberto Kelly? Is this the same Soriano that hit .203-1-5 in the Dominican League this winter? Are you a Yankees fan or a Red Sox fan? I don't buy him being ready now, and I don't think the Yankees do, either. I'll be surprised if they don't get him at least half a season at Columbus this year, especially given that they don't rush young guys through Triple-A, as we discussed on Friday.
I am doing a little research about a league and a team from the mid 90s. It was an independent league called the Great Central League and I am mostly interested in what happened to the Lafayette Leopards that played in Lafayette, Ind., during this time. Can anyone give me some info about where or what happened to this team? I believe that after the Great Central League folded the Leopards may have joined a league called the Frontier League? Is this still in existence? Any help you can provide would be greatly appreciated.
Jim
The Lafayette Leopards played in the Mid-America League in 1995, winning the league championship in the league's only year of existence. In 1996 they moved to the Heartland League, again finishing first. Lafayette fielded teams in the Heartland League for two more years, until the league folded after the 1998 season. The Leopards did not play in the Frontier League, which has been operating since 1993, or any other league in 1999.
I know you pick and choose what to answer, but I continue to enjoy your column and it's a great outlet for fans (like me) who get crazy questions burning in the back of their brains. Here's mine: Although big league managers certainly rely on the traditional attributes - knowledge, experience, instincts, etc., any idea how much teams/managers are using computer tech programs these days to aid decision-making. For instance, software programs developed that would allow a manager to see what different types of stat levels his hitters/pitchers must attain in order for the team to perform at a certain level. The question in a nutshell--has the computer had much influence on everyday baseball strategy at the big league level?
Thanks,

Mike Jahncke

Budapest, Hungary
Computer analysis of stats often comes into play in determining matchups, like deciding whom to pinch-hit in certain situations. If you can look at the numbers and realize that of the three righthanded batters on your bench, one of them has hit significantly better against Arthur Rhodes, then you would do well to call his name.
Computers are entering more and more into the game, and there are many things that can be done well with them. We recently ran a story on the use of computers in scouting, which I recommend you read if you're interested in the subject.
But I haven't heard anything about any manager using projection software to decide who breaks camp with the big club and I hope I never do. When it comes down to the actual makeup of a team, I don't think you can factor all of the human elements into a computer program. Although on one hand, there are a few teams out there that could probably do better with a computer manager than they do with their human one.



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