Ask Baseball America By James Bailey
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- March 3, 2000
March 6, 2000I got to see baseball on television for the first time this year on Saturday when the Cubs faced off against the Giants. There's nothing I love more than hearing Chip Caray make fun of Steve Stone, over and over and over. Other than their playful banter, the most memorable moment for me had to be Corey Patterson's blast off lefty Alan Embree. That was fun to see. As for Sunday's action, here are a few notable notes: Josh Hamilton doubled home the winning run in Tampa Bay's split-squad victory over Atlanta. Byung-Hyun Kim worked a perfect ninth against the White Sox to pick up his first save of the spring. (Look out, Matt Mantei!) Cardinals righthander Chad Hutchinson pitched three scoreless innings, allowing one hit and two walks while striking out three. Tomokazu Ohka allowed six consecutive hits and five runs against the Twins in an outing he'd probably like to forget. Indians third baseman Russ Branyan went 3-for-3 with an opposite field homer off Billy Koch. It's sure nice to have some actual results to look at again. As for today's column, there are still a few questions lingering from the Top 100 Prospects. Most of them sound similar to this. Why are some players ranked higher than others in the team rankings, but lower in the top 100? (Jimmy Rollins/Brett Myers) Do you use different criteria when doing the top 100? Also, I know that you are running around doing many things, but would it be possible to rank the organizations in terms of minor league depth, or at least break down the top 100 in terms of organizations? Thanks, Ben
This is a frequently asked question, and with good reason. We have about 10 different people who do Top 10 Prospects lists for us, with national correspondent David Rawnsley doing the large majority of them. Those lists are put together based on our own research and talking with scouts, managers, front-office people and the like. When we meld that all into a top 100, Rawnsley, editor Allan Simpson and I are the main contributors to the list. We all rank a personal top 150 and combine those in a raw list. We have a long discussion and make adjustments to the list, and we bounce it off other people as well. You end up with different results than the top 10s sometimes because we each have our own opinions about where players should go in relation to each other. When you put them all together it inevitably brings results that are sometimes different from the top 10s. We think that's OK because these are all just tools to help you and us determine the most promising players. Besides, things can change even from when a top 10 list is put together. No. 30 Abraham Nunez and No. 76 Adam Everett, for instance, don't appear on any top 10 list this year because they got traded from organizations we hadn't yet done top 10s for, to organizations whose top 10s were already completed. So we have to figure them in. Speaking of Nunez and Everett, we now have full scouting reports on them for you. Hi BA, A couple of years ago Ron Wright came close to being the Pirates' opening day first baseman. But serious back problems caused him to spend most of the last two years on the DL. I see that he has been acquired by the Reds, and is in their major league camp. Has his back recovered? Do the Reds see him as a true prospect, or is this one of those cases where there's nothing to lose by inviting him to camp? I saw him in the Southern League in '96, and he hit some shots that may not have come down yet. Thanks and keep up the good work, John Williams Wright was claimed on waivers by the Reds last October. The Pirates decided they didn't have room to keep him on their roster, so they had to waive him to clear a spot. They were hopeful that he would be back in action, but didn't want to risk a roster spot without knowing for sure. I guess it's fair to say the Reds have nothing to lose by inviting Wright to camp, but it looks like they might have a lot to gain. This isn't like inviting Brien Taylor to camp. Wright is back in action this spring. In three games he's 2-for-4 with an RBI. I don't like his chances to make the big league roster with Casey at first, because I can't see the Reds keeping him on the bench after he hasn't really played for two years. But if his back is healthy, and it appears it is--so far--he could turn out to be a handy guy to have around later in the season after he gets some Triple-A at-bats. Jim Bowden is the master of the waiver wire, and this could be another one of his gems. We are trying to find out who Cleveland got for Tommy John when he went to the White Sox, can you help us? Thank you, Doug
You could say the White Sox got the best of that deal. Over the next seven seasons John reeled off ERAs of 3.08, 2.62, 2.48, 1.98, 3.26, 3,28 and 3.62 for the Sox. On Dec. 2, 1971, Chicago traded John and infielder Steve Huntz to the Dodgers for Dick Allen. March 3, 2000For those of you who don't remember, or weren't regular readers a few months ago, we had a few questions in early November about the two Cubans that the Dodgers lost last June when MLB decided they had illegally scouted in Cuba. The second of those players, Juan Diaz, finally signed this week with the Red Sox for $400,000. Red Sox fans are wondering what they've got. I just wanted to say that I love your publication and Website and I find this column an invaluable resource! I saw that the Red Sox yesterday signed Juan Carlos Diaz, the 24-year-old, Cuban-born first baseman who was declared a free agent after the Dodgers had scouted him against MLB rules. Where do you see him playing this year (AA-Trenton) and I see that he K's too often, but would he have found himself in the Bosox' Top 15 Prospects for 2000? If not, what type of player is he and can a make a contribution at the major league level? Thanks for your time and keep up the great work! Shane Katz Marlborough, MA Yes, Diaz has finally landed with a new organization. It took awhile and he had to come down on his demands somewhat. Diaz is a hulking first baseman, generously listed at 6-foot-2, 228 pounds. He's basically a one-tool guy and that tool is power. He hit 30 home runs in 438 at-bats in 1998 and nine homers in his abridged season last year. I ran the Diaz signing past David Rawnsley and we discovered something: If there was an organization that Diaz was destined to play for, it was the Red Sox. Not because his righthanded swing is a natural fit for Fenway Park. No, it's more because the Red Sox seem to collect players like Diaz. Brian Daubach, Morgan Burkhart and Israel Alcantara all provide a similar package. But unlike Diaz, none of them hails from Cuba, so they didn't sign for a $400,000 bonus. I'd go as far as saying Daubach and Burkhart are better hitters than Diaz. They both hit for a higher average and strikeout significantly less. Alcantara, an outfielder, might be the best comparison, given his strikeout-to-walk ratios, and he's spent at least part of each of the last five seasons at Double-A. Does that mean Diaz is bound for Double-A Trenton this year? I wouldn't bet against it, but if I were going to take my best guess I'd say the Red Sox will send him to Triple-A Pawtucket to start the year. And I wouldn't expect him to see a lot of Boston this season. Would he have made the Red Sox Top 15? No. That doesn't mean he's not going to be an interesting guy to keep an eye on, but don't count on him being the Sox' cleanup hitter of the future. I think it's a telling sign that it took him more than eight months to find a new home. This is a guy all 29 organizations (other than the Dodgers who were ineligible to sign him) had seen for at least three years in the minor leagues--plus a season in the Dominican Summer League--and everyone had scouting reports on him. If the rumors are true that he passed up on some seven-figure offers last summer, he's a strong candidate for the Jody Reed Award. But I think if any team had signed him for a million bucks they would have eventually come off looking awfully foolish. For comparison's sake, the other player the Dodgers lost last June, when the commissioner's office ruled they had illegally scouted in Cuba, was outfielder Josue Perez. Perez, who signed with the Phillies in August for $850,000, is regarded as a much better prospect because he has more than one skill. He's almost the anti-Diaz, having no power, but a little of everything else. There was some sentiment at the time that the Phillies overpaid for his services, but they said at the time they considered him a second-round talent, so they gave him second-round money (or slightly more). He was smart to take a deal when he had a chance to get back on the field and only miss a little bit of playing time. It will be interesting to see if Diaz struggles after the long layoff. We're in danger of turning today's column into one of those theme columns, by running the next question, which is also related to international signings. But don't worry, we'll be back to randomness by the time you get to the third question. What are your thoughts on an international draft? Some people point out that the talent has been thin from Puerto Rico since they were included in the draft several years ago. Is the same argument made regarding Canada? People also argue that an international draft would help low revenue teams but I disagree. It seems some teams either price themselves out of drafting top players or are priced out. I think of Milwaukee as an excellent example. There are only a few instances where international players sign for huge dollars (El Duque, Danys Baez etc) while hundreds of 16-year-olds are signed annually for bargain rates (below $100K). Milwaukee would be much more likely to find a star player signing ten Latin players at $100K then by signing one million-dollar first-round pick. Do you think MLB should go to an international draft? John Ewing I'm not a fan of the international draft and if it comes to fruition I think you'll find it creates more problems than it solves. For one thing, you already have many of the "small-revenue" clubs shying away from players with big bonus demands in the draft. By throwing more of those players in the draft, I don't really think you'll see the bonuses decrease. If anything, they might increase, as draft inflation seems to spiral every year. You could even see the international players drive up the signing bonuses for the U.S. kids who go in the first couple of rounds of the draft. I see it having a lot of potential to backfire if the intention is holding down signing bonuses. But the real can of worms is going to come with the international players that don't get drafted. Not every Dominican kid is going to get picked in the draft, so there will have to be an avenue for signing nondrafted players, just like there is now for U.S. kids who get passed over. How I've heard the international draft working is a team will have to submit the name of any player it has an interest in drafting ahead of time, so everyone can get an equal shot at taking him. (That might not be exactly how it works if and when the international draft is implemented, but since it doesn't exist yet it's hard to know exactly what the rules are.) Let's say that hypothetically you're the international scout for a team and you stumble onto the next Vladimir Guerrero. None of the other 29 teams are aware of him. How anxious are you going to be to let other teams take their shot? Obviously the bonus would climb if there were other bidders in the mix, but look beyond the money. Maybe your organization is willing to pay the market rate for this kid because you're so sure he's going to be a star. Do you really want to submit his name and tip off all 29 other teams? Or would you prefer to come to an agreement with the kid ahead of time that you'll give him first-round money if he just lays low for a couple of months. Then, a few weeks after the draft, bam, you suddenly "discover" this new kid and sign him on the spot. There will be loopholes like this. There is no possible way to close all the loopholes that will arise. And the teams that want to be sly and get around the draft will get around it. I think the international draft is doomed to be a nightmare for MLB if they choose to go that route. In a chat over on espn.com, Will Lingo said that he felt like the Royals were the winners in the Giambi-Laxton deal. This conflicts with the analysis from every other source I had seen. Could you offer any elaboration on how the Royals could have benefitted from trading away such a highly regarded hitter? Scott Lange I turned this one over to Will, so he could answer in his very own words. Here's what he said. It's not that I'm in love with Brett Laxton, though I do think he will be a useful major league pitcher. I just have serious doubts about Jeremy Giambi. He always seems to be battling injuries and hasn't shown the consistent power he'll need to be a big league regular. His bat is clearly his only above-average tool, and his defense is pretty rough. I hate to see guys cast as DH types this early in their careers. 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