Ask Baseball America By James Bailey



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March 16, 2000

Welcome to the new, twice-a-week Ask BA. It looks and feels much like the old, three-times-a-week version, but just a little less frequently. As many of you have mentioned in your e-mails, this column has helped us all get through the offseason. But now it's time to gear up for the new season, and there are a lot of things we want to work on here.


For starters, we're completely overhauling our minor league team pages--in the hopes of actually giving people a reason to visit them this year. (They were kind of, um, sparse last year.) We're also excited about bringing back features from last season like the Howe Daily Highlights, PSX major league reports, Today's Matchup, etc. We're really excited about Year II of Baseball America Online, but there are only so many hours in the day and at this point in time, Ask BA is going to take a tiny squeeze.
We've got a couple of good questions for you today, though, thanks to the minor league talent rankings.
BA,

Why is it that as the Red Sox organization gets better on the field it's ranking in BA stays down at absurd middle to low levels? Take a look at your rankings the last couple of years and see how far off they've been. Now this year 14th? 21st minor league? What team have I been watching in the playoffs? Whose prospects are contributing, delivering top quality players in trades and climbing steadily through the minors? Why is it that the Sox expanded presence in international signings is taken as a strength everywhere else but as a weakness by BA?

Oh well. I'll enjoy seeing you proved wrong again this summer.
Frank
Let's make sure we all understand what the rankings are actually ranking. We ranked the Red Sox No. 7 in major league talent. If they play to the capabilities of their talent, that puts them in the playoffs. And in the last few years under Jimy Williams, they've always played better than their talent. The only way they'll prove us wrong this summer is by underperforming and not making the playoffs.
Where the Sox ranked low was in the minor league talent rankings. They were slotted in at No. 21 due to a lack of depth in positional prospects, specifically up-the-middle players. Their organizational depth was not helped last year when they failed to sign their fourth-through ninth-round picks. The Asian pitchers they've added have certainly helped deepen their system, but they're not as deep as most organizations overall.
As for our rankings the last couple of years, it's only fair if you're using a barometer of major league success to go by our major league talent rankings. In 1998 we ranked the Sox 13th. They finished with the fifth best record in the major leagues. Last year we ranked them 12th and they finished with the ninth best record. So they did perform better than their talent ranking would have projected.
But, does talent always equal wins? Not necessarily. Ask the Dodgers about the 1999 season. They had a lot of talent, but they didn't play very well as a team. Conversely, a team can play better than its talent. I don't mean this as a knock, because it's quite an accomplishment to maximize the talent that you have.
If you look at the Red Sox of 1999, there were two players on their roster that stood out as top of the league talents. What Jimy Williams did with the rest of that roster is amazing. He gets excellent results every season. But he does it with a lineup that man for man doesn't stack up talentwise with some of the other teams in the majors.
Come on, guys. I understand the Yankees are America's darlings but the Marlins do beat them out in this category (minor league talent). Florida gave the Yankees Ed Yarnall to complete the trade of Mike Lowell because he really did not have the long-term potential as the other arms in the systems. But once he got to the Yanks he the second coming of Tom Glavine. Plus I do believe what made that trade was not Yarnall but Class A pitcher Todd Noel.

Hey, don't get me wrong I think the Yanks have an outstanding farm system but Florida has what everybody wants you said in the article that is quality power pitcher not just one or two probable five or six. I understand the media and the press don't want to give the Marlins any credit seeing they are a laughing stock of baseball but give credit where credit is due.


Thank you,

Esasso@cs.com


Let the record show that we did rank the Marlins No. 2 in minor league talent, which I would say gives them some credit. We also included eight Marlins on our Top 100 Prospects list, the most of any organization. We have never been shy about giving the Marlins credit during their rebuilding. In fact, at times we may have given them too much credit.
The Marlins have assembled an impressive array of talent. Dave Dombrowski has managed to acquire legitimate prospects in nearly every deal he's pulled off, even when it looked like he had little leverage to work with.
But the one concern with the Marlins system is that many of their prospects failed to step forward and turn their physical tools into baseball results last year. As David Rawnsley says in the talent rankings, "the organization's emphasis on pure tools has resulted in a lack of plate-management skills for both hitters and pitchers."
Just wondering what your take is on Milwaukee prospect Cristian Guerrero. Could he be for the Brewers what Vlad has become for the Expos?
Thanks,

Jay
Cristian was ranked conservatively at No. 10 on the Brewers Top 10 list due to his inexperience, but he has the ability to climb that list quickly if he performs.


He's at the same level as his cousin Vladimir was at the same age. Back in 1995, Vladimir stamped himself as a top prospect in the low Class A South Atlantic League, hitting .333 with 47 extra-base hits. Cristian will head to the Midwest League this season, where he will play for Beloit. If he hits Class A pitching like he did Pioneer League pitching last year, he could quickly establish himself as the gem of the Brewers organization.
I don't want to go too heavy on the Vladimir comparisons right now, because that's not really fair to Cristian. He's a talented young player, while Vladimir is one of the best talents in the big leagues today. It's going to be difficult for any prospect to live up to expectations like that. But Cristian is definitely a player to keep an eye on, especially if you're a Brewers fan.
The Guerrero family is an interesting case study in that they have shown no loyalty to any one organization when it comes to signing that first contract. Wilton was the first to sign, in October 1991, with the Dodgers. Vladimir signed in March 1993 with the Expos. Cristian signed with the Brewers in August 1997. And Vladimir and Wilton's younger brother Julio signed with the Red Sox in January 1998.
Imagine if one scout had been able to lock up the four of them for one organization.



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