Economic downturn causes global war

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So far, such half-hearted experiments not only have failed to work; they have left the societies that have tried them in a progressively worse position, farther behind the front-runners as time goes by. Argentina has lost ground to Chile; Russian development has fallen farther behind that of the Baltic states and Central Europe. Frequently, the crisis has weakened the power of the merchants, industrialists, financiers, and professionals who want to develop a liberal capitalist society integrated into the world. Crisis can also strengthen the hand of religious extremists, populist radicals, or authoritarian traditionalists who are determined to resist liberal capitalist society for a variety of reasons. Meanwhile, the companies and banks based in these societies are often less established and more vulnerable to the consequences of a financial crisis than more established firms in wealthier societies. As a result, developing countries and countries where capitalism has relatively recent and shallow roots tend to suffer greater economic and political damage when crisis strikes--as, inevitably, it does. And, consequently, financial crises often reinforce rather than challenge the global distribution of power and wealth. This may be happening yet again. None of which means that we can just sit back and enjoy the recession. History may suggest that financial crises actually help capitalist great powers maintain their leads--but it has other, less reassuring messages as well. If financial crises have been a normal part of life during the 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under the Anglophone powers, so has war. The wars of the League of Augsburg and the Spanish Succession; the Seven Years War; the American Revolution; the Napoleonic Wars; the two World Wars; the cold war: The list of wars is almost as long as the list of financial crises. Bad economic times can breed wars. Europe was a pretty peaceful place in 1928, but the Depression poisoned German public opinion and helped bring Adolf Hitler to power. If the current crisis turns into a depression, what rough beasts might start slouching toward Moscow, Karachi, Beijing, or New Delhi to be born? The United States may not, yet, decline, but, if we can't get the world economy back on track, we may still have to fight.

Scientists in Texas say if a medium-sized asteroid were to crash into the ocean the ozone layer could be depleted, allowing high levels of ultraviolet radiation to reach the surface. Dr. Elisabetta Pierazzo and colleagues from the Planetary Science Institute in Tucson ran computer simulations that revealed if an asteroid 500 m to 1 km in diameter were to hit the Pacific Ocean it would eject enough water vapor and sea salt high enough into the atmosphere to affect the protective ozone layer. The results of the simulations showed the 1 km asteroid could affect an area over 1000 km in diameter, and vast quantities of water and vapor would be ejected up to 160 km high. The scientists say the water vapor would contain chlorine and bromine from the vaporized sea salts, and this would result in significant global depletion of the ozone layer by destroying it faster than it is created naturally. Pierazzo said such an asteroid would produce “an ozone hole that will engulf the entire Earth,” and produce a huge spike in ultraviolet (UV) radiation with levels higher than anywhere on the surface today. The simulations showed the smaller asteroid, 500 meters across, could produce ultraviolet index (UVI) levels of 20 or over in the northern tropics for a period of several months, and the global ozone depletion would be similar to the record ozone holes seen over the Antarctic in the mid 1990s. The 1 km asteroid could produce a spike of 56, and levels over 20 for about two years in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The UVI is a measure of UV intensity, with levels over 10 assumed dangerous. The highest recorded UVI known in recent times has been 20. Pierazzo said previous studies of the effects of asteroid impacts on the ocean have concentrated on tsunamis, but her research found the effects of a medium-sized asteroid strike would also include difficulty in growing crops and would have a long-term negative effect on global food production. She said if there was enough warning of an impending, strike farmers could plant crops with high UV-tolerance and food could be stored to ensure supplies during the period of low productivity. Other effects would include increased rates of skin cancer and cataracts. People may also have to avoid exposure to direct sunlight to avoid rapid sunburn. A UVI level of 56 has never been experienced, and so the effects are uncertain, but it is likely that people would have to remain indoors during daylight to avoid serious sunburn. The study said over 100 asteroids 1 to 2 km in diameter are thought to be orbiting in

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paths that could bring them near to Earth, and many more smaller asteroids appear to be “currently looming undiscovered in the Earth’s neighborhood.” NASA estimates there are around 800 such Near Earth Objects (NEOs). The authors say past research suggests on average an asteroid 500 meters wide or less hits the Earth about once every 200,000 years, while a larger asteroid strike happens around once every 800,000 years. The research covered only the impact of an asteroid hitting the ocean, since such strikes are twice as likely to occur as land impacts. The results are published in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.