Auto Tradeoff

AT Causes Pollution

Cars are more efficient

That said, remember that real HSR (not the short term improvements to get to 90 or l 10 MPH. which may or may not be a good thing, but are certainly not HSR) is a long term deployment, so it needs to be compared with cars I0 or 20 or 30 years hence, and the air transportation system over the same period. Cars are getting better from both an environmental perspective and from the perspective of automation technologies. The DARPA Urban Challenge vehicles need to be bested to justify HSR. Cars driven by computers. which while sounding far off is technologically quite near, should be able to attain relatively high speeds (though certainly not HSR speeds in mixed traffic). Further they may move less material per passenger than HSR (trains are heavy), and so may net less environmental impact if electrically powered. Aviation is improving as well, both in terms of its environmental impacts and its efficiency. Socially-constructed problems like aviation security or congestion can be solved for far less money than is required for any one high-speed rail line.

Growing efficiency now

WSJ 12 Wall Street Journal PRESS RELEASE June 21, 2012, 8:28 a.m. EDT Environmental and Energy Experts Laud New Auto Enthusiast Website CarsOfChange.com http://www.marketwatch.com/story/environmental-and-energy-experts-laud-new-auto-enthusiast-website-carsofchangecom-2012-06-21
"The American public is embracing fuel efficiency and the auto industry is responding with new technologies and new vehicles that use less gas, or get us there oil-free," says Ann Mesnikoff, director of the Sierra Club's Green Transportation Campaign. "Cars of Change(TM) is the right resource at the right time to help Americans understand these changes, and to help navigate these changes and make decisions about the best vehicles." Roland Hwang, Transportation Program Director for the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), adds: "For too long the auto industry and environmentalists have been at loggerheads. But today, the U.S. auto industry has become an agent of change for fuel efficiency and clean cars. We have an unprecedented opportunity to work together to keep this country moving forward on innovation, jobs, and a cleaner, healthier environment. CarsOfChange.com(TM) can play an important role in conveying how this process is unfolding through the cars, the technologies, and the dialogues it features."

Fuel efficiency now-- innovation

Chappell 12 Lindsay Chappell, Automotive News, US automotive industry seeks fuel-saving technologies Posted 12 June 2012 http://www.prw.com/subscriber/headlines2.html?cat=1&id=1014

The US auto industry has signed on to proposed federal mandates to dramatically improve vehicle fuel economy. But for automakers to meet new standards, some technologies will have to be invented. “The auto industry has agreed to meet targets that we don’t know how we’re going to meet,” said Tom Baloga, vice president of engineering at BMW of North America. “We’re ready to make commitments to tough goals. What we need is time and we need certainty.” The Obama administration, the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration have widespread industry support for requiring nominal fleet averages of 54.5 mpg in 2026. (Because of various exceptions and credits, the real-world average likely will be in the low 40s.) Current rules require a 2012 model year industry average of 29.7 mpg. “To reach those numbers, there is technology that is going to have to be invented,” Baloga said. Already used extensively are turbochargers, multispeed transmissions and aerodynamic improvements. But new technologies are in the works, and automakers are betting on a few that seem plausible.

AT Alt Causes: Global Econ

Auto industry improving globally

Bastian 11 (Linda, "The U.S. Auto Industry is Jumpstarting the Manufacturing Sector," November 2011, http://www.areadevelopment.com/Automotive/November2011/auto-industry-backshoring-sparks-manufacturing-0003211.shtml)

"Despite the woes you hear, the meltdown and uncertainty, the auto industry in the United States - and globally - is doing pretty well right now," he noted. "For whatever reason, sales are decent in the 'New Normal/ but nowhere near where they were four years ago. However, Detroit automakers are now profiting due to restructuring. They closed a lot of factories due to the 2008 sales collapse when the credit markets closed. But now, with more competitive labor agreements, it makes sense for them to build more in the United States, retool and refurbish existing plants, and insource work now that labor rates are under control." Domestic Automakers on a Roll For example, in July, GM announced that its powertrain plants in Ohio and Indiana would get the bulk of a $129 million investment. The plants produce transmissions for Buick and Chevrolet models that incorporate eAssist fuel-saving technology. The monies are part of GM's $2 billion investment in 17 facilities in eight states that are expected to create or retain 4,000 jobs. GM also broke ground on its $331 million expansion of its Arlington, Texas, assembly plant in October. The facility will make future Chevrolet Tahoes, Suburbans, GMC Yukons, and Cadillac Escalades. When completed, the company could add 100 jobs to the plant's 2,500-plus positions. Recently, GM's CEO Dan Akerson told Automotive News that he predicts flat industrywide U.S. auto sales in 2012. However, he believes the company can continue to be prosperous due to a low break-even point that came about in part by its new UAW labor contract. The newspaper also reported that GM told analysts it can turn a profit at a 10.5 million-unit U.S. sales pace, which is at least 16 percent under the sale volume number Akerson anticipates next year. And in mid-October, Chrysler reached a tentative labor agreement with the United Auto Workers (UAW). The accord would add 2,100 jobs and includes $4.5 billion of plant investments that, according to the union, will produce new models plus upgraded vehicles and components by 2015. In particular, it has been reported that three plants in southeast Michigan could attract over $1.2 billion in investment and 250 new jobs, in addition to nearly 2,800 jobs retained. More good news: If the tentative Ford/UAW agreement goes into effect, plans call for the manufacturer to add a third shift - and 1,100 jobs - to its Chicago assembly plant in 2012. Also, over the next four years, 900 jobs are expected to be added to that facility as well as to Ford's Chicago Heights stamping plant. The sputtering economy is even supporting a fairly new "green" American car company: McLean, Virginia-based GreenTech Automotive plans to build a Mississippi assembly plant to produce hybrid and electric cars. In August, it announced a joint venture deal allowing it to produce/sell its "green" cars in China. In September, it announced the plant had successfully completed the certification process to export cars to Europe. Foreign Vehicle Manufacturers Continue to Invest However, it's not only American auto manufacturers that are cautiously preparing for the industry to rebound here and abroad. The "new reality" of industry prosperity also extends to foreign vehicle manufacturers with operations in the United States, as well as to countless suppliers to the automakers that reside near them in bulging clusters. The majority of this activity is taking place in two regions: the Midwest and the South/Southwest. McElroy noted that - for at least a decade - America has been quite an attractive place for foreign companies to manufacture vehicles. Besides providing market proximity, America provides the foreign automakers with "very good infrastructure," a dollar that has "weakened tremendously" against the yen and other foreign currencies, and a highly trained and motivated work force. That's why foreign automakers from Europe, Korea, and Japan "have all established operations in the United States - overwhelmingly in right-to-work states..." Clearly, non- American au to /truck manufacturers are finding that "now" is the perfect time to invest in the United States in preparation for anticipated industry growth, sales, and success. For example, U.S. production of the 2012 Kia Optima began in September at Kia's manufacturing plant in West Point, Georgia, after the completion of numerous expansions. The company had recently added a third shift that raised the total jobs created at the plant to over 3,000. That same month - after being operational for just a few months - Volkswagen's Chattanooga, Tennessee, assembly plant announced its 10,000th Passat had rolled off its assembly line. Toyota said it would begin rolling out its first Corolla vehicles this fall from its new Blue Springs, Mississippi, manufacturing facility - the carmaker's 10th U.S. plant. It's estimated the facility will eventually create 2,000 jobs. In September, the company began four-cylinder engine production at its TMMAL (Toyota Motor Manufacturing, Alabama, Inc.) plant in Huntsville, Alabama, where V6 and V8 engines also are made. It was reported that the additional production increased plant employment to almost 1,000 workers and total investment to $637 million. Combined annual production for all three engines will total about 500,000 units. Recently BMW announced plans to hire 100 new professionals for jobs at its Spartanburg County, South Carolina, facility. BMW expects to increase production capacity there to 240,000 units by 2012. In 2008 the automaker had said it would invest $750 million for a 1.5-million-squarefoot expansion and create 500 more jobs on top of its 7,000-person work force. The German company currently supports over 23,000 jobs in South Carolina and generates $1.2 billion annually in wages/salaries. According to a 2008 university study, each BMW job has a multiplier of 4.3, and the company's economic impact for the state is pegged at $8.88 billion. And earlier this year, Nissan announced it would create about 300 jobs at its Canton, Ohio, plant for production of its Xterra SUV and Frontier pickup models. Carlos Tavares, chairman of Nissan Americas said that by 2015, 85 percent of Nissan and Infiniti vehicles sold in the Americas would be built on U.S. sou, up from the current 69 percent. Indeed, ramping up manufacturing capacity is one big trend now seen in the auto industry, pointed out McElroy. And while experts predict more plants will be built in the next decade, McElroy predicts they won't be proliferating as much as they are now. Supplier Side Gains Traction On the supplier side, McElroy said some of those auto-industry companies "are giant, doing tens of billions of dollars in sales with tens of thousands of employees." Like the automakers, they too have all been doing extremely well. "A lot of them went out of business in the last downturn or consolidated. But those companies that survived the huge turmoil are in pretty good positions right now," he explained. "They're also investing millions into U.S. manufacturing facilities and technical centers. For example, Japanese company Denso and two German supplier firms - Continental and Bosch's auto division - all have a presence in Detroit as well as in the U.S. South/Southeast." The Midwest, in particular, continues to experience a major uptick in investments in auto technical facilities. "In the last decade, Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai, and Kia have put big tech centers in Michigan," McElroy said. "And despite all the problems in the auto industry, there is no greater collection in the world of automobile people, resources, and facilities than in this sta te... The Japanese and Koreans all want to tap into that expertise. Honda has huge facilities [nearby] in Ohio and Indiana, for example."

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