Braun & Blank 17
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| Blank 17 [Stephen Blank is a senior fellow for Russia at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington. "The Arctic and Asia in Russian naval strategy." https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322401234_The_Arctic_and_Asia_in_Russian_naval_strategy]
Neither is this the only such example of what we might call reversed parallels between the Arctic and South China Sea. Ironically, in both cases, UNCLOS requests for more information concerning maritime claims from Russia and China contributed to both “crises.” Although Russia highly valued its position in the Arctic Ocean because of its energy potential and geostrategic military utility dating back to the Cold War before 2001; when it was invited to submit its claim on the Arctic to UNCLOS, that invitation considerably stimulated the process by which Russia came to adopt a much more truculent and even aggressive Arctic stance in the last decade.68 Similarly in the South China Sea, China had been making claims of its sovereignty over that sea and the areas included in the well-known “nine-dashed line” for many years before 2009. Nevertheless, its formal claims, contained in a series of diplomatic notes to UNCLOS in 2009–11 and the ensuing crisis around the South China Sea also owe much to UNCLOS requests from China for information connected with its claim and specific deadlines imposed by UNCLOS or the actions of other interested governments.69 Thus, a UN– created deadline established by the UN created “a moment for states to issue claims, counter-claims, and counter-counter-claims.”70 So while China has since changed its tune and accepted the status quo and UNCLOS in the Arctic in order to become an observer at the AC, it is clear what could happen if the current assault on international law and norms by China and Russia continues unimpeded. Indeed, for all the noise about Sino– Russian cooperation in the Arctic, it turns out that there is less here than meets the eye.71 Moreover, this discussion about Asia does not even begin to take into account the East– West tensions in the Arctic due to Russian aggressive behavior in Europe and the Arctic itself This is especially important for the delimitation of maritime EEZs under UNCLOS. For example, should China successfully defy its neighbors, the United States and the International Court of Justice in the Hague regarding the South China Sea, Russia could then follow suit and invoke China’s behavior as a precedent. Alternatively, if Russia could defy the UN, AC and its Arctic neighbors and consolidate its control over an extended claim of Arctic waters, that could become the precedent for China in those disputed Asian seas. Deterrence failures in the SCS trigger nuclear war.Download 124.37 Kb. Share with your friends:
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