Chapter 3 Greenhouse Gas Contribution on Climate Change
Climate Change Summit Copenhagen, Denmark (Dec. 2009)
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- 3.9 Challenge of Limiting Global Warming to 2 o C
- 3.10 Conclusion and Future Outlook
3.8.4 Climate Change Summit Copenhagen, Denmark (Dec. 2009)The climate conference was held in Copenhagen, Denmark to discuss the things that can be done across the globe to slowdown or reverse the effects of climate change on Earth. The conference in Copenhagen was the 15th conference of parties (COP15) in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. At the conference in Copenhagen2009, the parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) met for the last time on government level. The Kyoto Protocol aiming to prevent climate changes and global warming will expire in 2012. To keep the process in the line, there is an urgent need to renew or set up a new climate protocol. According to the reports issued by UNFCCC, the heads of countries and delegations at the Copenhagen, 2009, stated in accord that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time. They emphasized to urgently combat climate change in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. To achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, they recognized that the increase in global temperature should be below 2oC, to enhance the long-term cooperative action to combat climate change. They also recognized the critical impacts of climate change and the potential impacts of response measures on countries particularly vulnerable to its adverse effects and stressed the need to establish a comprehensive adaptation programme including international support. They agreed that deep cuts in global emissions are required, as documented by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report with a view to reduce global emissions so as to hold the increase in global temperature below 2oC. They urged to cooperate in achieving the peaking of global and national emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries and bearing in mind that social and economic development and poverty eradication are the first and prevailing priorities of developing countries and at the same time low-emission development strategy is crucial to sustainable development. They mentioned that adaptation to the unfavourable effects of climate change and the potential impacts of response measures is a challenge faced by all countries. Enhanced action and international cooperation on adaptation is urgently sought to ensure the implementation of the Convention by enabling and supporting the implementation of adaptation actions aimed at reducing vulnerability and building pliability in developing countries, especially in those that are particularly vulnerable, such as least developed countries, such as Small Island developing States and Africa. They agreed that developed countries shall provide adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and capacity-building to support the implementation of adaptation action in developing countries (The United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009). 3.9 Challenge of Limiting Global Warming to 2 oC In the 1980s, an advisory group formed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), The International Council of Scientific Union and United Nations Environment Programme recommended 2 oC global mean Earth’s temperature from the industrial levels as the threshold for dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI). Till now, this recommendation has been accepted by the European Council, German Advisory Council on Climate Change, among other national and international bodies (Ramanathan and Feng 2008). According to Council of the European Union (2006) and Pachauri and Reisinger (2007), more than 100 countries have adopted global warming limit of 2 oC or below as a guiding principal for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change hazards. Recently, Hansen et al. (2007) have adopted a similar approach and recommended 1 oC above the global mean temperature of the year 2000 as the DAI threshold value. However, predicting probabilistic climate change for future GHGs emission scenarios is challenging due to uncertainties in carbon cycle, radiative forcing and climate response. According to Hansen et al. (2006), global surface temperature is a popular measure for predicting state of climate change. In an effort to unveil the relation between GHGs emissions corresponding to specified maximum warming, Meinshausen et al. (2009) provide a comprehensive probabilistic analysis for quantifying GHGs emission budget for the 2000–50 periods that would limit global warming throughout the 21st century to below 2oC target, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints. They showed that for the chosen class of emission scenarios, both cumulative emissions up to 2050 and emission levels in 2050 are strong indicators of the probability that global warming will not exceed to 2oC in 21st century relative to pre-industrial temperatures. There is a 25% probability that warming will exceed 2oC if cumulative CO2 emissions are limited to 1,000 Gt and a limit of 1,440 Gt CO2 yields a 50% probability–given a representative estimate of the distribution of climate system properties. As evident, in 2000–06 CO2 emissions were ~234 Gt CO2 (Canadell 2007). Considering this emission rate, achieving a target of global warming limit of 2oC or below is not impossible. Recently, G8 (2008) summit predict halved global GHGs emissions by 2050, which estimated the means with 12–45% probability of exceeding 2oC by assuming 1990 as the emission base year and a range of published climate sensitivity distributions (Meinshausen et al. 2009). 3.10 Conclusion and Future Outlook GHGs have become the dominant climate force in recent decades. Climate stabilization can be achieved by reducing net emission of GHGs. This target can be achieved by decreasing dependence on fossil fuel consumption or alternatively by enhancing sequestration of carbon dioxide. The avoidance of deforestation and supporting afforestation is another strategy to slow down global warming. Increasing GHGs concentrations have direct consequences on flora and fauna including humans. GHGs concentrations in the environment should be curtailed on priority in order to avoid disease epidemics. Reduction in concentrations of GHGs in the environment will also help to reduce the impacts of natural disasters. Ocean acidification is a direct consequence of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. To avoid substantial damage to ocean ecosystems in future, deep and immediate reductions in global CO2 emissions are required. Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions due to fossil fuel burning is required over the next generations to limit ongoing ocean oxygen depletion and acidification to overcome their long-term adverse inputs. Government initiatives and mass movements are required for the reduction of GHGs in the environment in order to maintain the inhabitable nature of the planet. Directory: EWRI EWRI -> Viii lid technology: case studies and watershed restoration EWRI -> Viii lid technology: case studies and watershed restoration Download 261.21 Kb. Share with your friends:
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