Chapter II: micro determinants of poverty


Table 2.4: Marginal percentage increase in per capita income due to employment variables



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Table 2.4: Marginal percentage increase in per capita income due to employment variables

[The excluded reference categories are a household head and a spouse fully employed (at work and not underemployed), and working as wage earners (as opposed to self-employment) in the agriculture sector]






March 1998

September 1998

March 1999




Urban

Rural

Urban

Rural

Urban

Rural

Employment of head



















Available (unemployed)

NS

NS

-0.27

NS

NS

NS

Searching (unemployed)

-0.63

-0.48

-0.76

-1.29

-0.73

NS

Not working

0.30

NS

0.30

NS

0.42

NS

Employment of spouse



















Available (unemployed)

-0.09

-0.23

-0.18

NS

-0.08

-0.06

Searching (unemployed)

NS

NS

NS

-0.89

-0.29

NS

Not working

NS

-0.75

NS

NS

NS

NS

Sector of activity of head



















Mining/Manufacturing/Electricity

NS

0.18

0.14

0.16

NS

0.20

Construction

0.16

0.31

0.28

0.37

0.18

0.49

Commerce

NS

0.42

0.28

0.39

0.17

0.46

Transport

0.23

0.45

0.36

0.50

0.34

0.49

Services

NS

0.16

0.14

NS

NS

0.20

Sector of activity of spouse



















Mining/Manufacturing/Electricity

NS

-0.27

NS

NS

NS

NS

Construction

NS

1.07

NS

0.97

NS

1.10

Commerce

NS

NS

0.22

NS

0.37

0.34

Transport

NS

NS

NS

-0.39

NS

0.92

Services

NS

-0.46

NS

NS

NS

NS

Type of employment of head



















Self-employed

0.10

-0.24

0.07

-0.21

0.11

-0.26

Employer

0.58

0.93

0.53

0.78

0.63

0.54

Unpaid family work

-0.70

-1.03

NS

NS

NS

-0.78

Public sector

0.09

NS

NS

NS

NS

NS

Size of firm > 10 people

0.12

0.22

0.19

0.18

0.17

0.17

Type of employment of spouse



















Self-employed

0.12

-0.37

NS

NS

NS

-0.17

Employer

0.33

NS

NS

NS

NS

NS

Unpaid family work

NS

-0.38

NS

NS

-0.32

-0.44

Public sector

NS

NS

NS

NS

NS

NS

Size of firm > 10 people

0.16

NS

NS

NS

NS

NS

Underemployment of head



















Hours of work per week < 20

-0.33

-0.30

-0.19

-0.25

-0.34

-0.35

20 to 39 hours of work per week

-0.15

-0.15

NS

NS

-0.17

-0.19

Want to work more

NS

NS

-0.11

NS

-0.17

-0.22

Not available for health or family reasons

0.23

NS

NS

NS

NS

NS

Underemployment of spouse



















Hours of work per week < 20

-0.17

NS

-0.32

-0.33

-0.18

-0.38

20 to 39 hours of work per week

-0.18

NS

-0.13

-0.17

NS

-0.24

Want to work more

NS

-0.36

-0.19

NS

NS

0.18

Not available for health or family reasons

NS

NS

NS

-1.57

0.24

NS

Source: World Bank staff using EPHPM. NS means not statistically different from zero at the 10% level.

Coefficients underlined are significant at the 10% level. Coefficients not underlined are significant at the 5% level.





  • Underemployment: Having a head or spouse seriously underemployed (i.e., working less than 20 hours per week) reduces expected per capita income by about 30 percent in both urban and rural areas. Counting as zeroes the coefficients which are not statistically significant, milder underemployment (i.e., working between 20 and 39 hours a week) reduces per capita income by about 10 percent. Those who would like to work more tend to be poorer, although the impact is not always significant. Controlling for all the other variables, there is no definite direction of the impact of wanting to work more, but not being able to do so for health or family reasons, although in one case (spouses in rural areas in the September 1998 survey), the negative impact is very large.

  • Sector of activity: Having a head belonging to the construction, commerce, or transport sector brings in a gain in per capita income of about 30 percent as compared to working in agriculture (the excluded reference category). By contrast, households with heads working in services and mining/manufacturing/electricity do not do much better than households with heads in agriculture. In the case of services, this may be because a large part of this sector consists of informal and badly paid workers (in other words, the sector is highly heterogeneous). In the case of mining, manufacturing, and electricity, the result is more surprising. The impact of the spouse’s sector of activity tends to be smaller than that of the household head (many coefficients are not significant).

  • Position held: Self-employment versus salaried employment (the excluded category in the regression) is good in urban areas, and bad in rural areas. The difference can be explained by the fact that in urban areas, the self-employed include a larger number of professionals. As expected, being an employer generates a large gain in per capita income of about 70 percent. Also as expected, unpaid family work is associated with poverty. There is no systematic gain from being employed in the public sector as opposed to working in the private sector. A head working in a firm that has more than ten workers brings in a gain in per capita income of close to 20 percentage points. The results are again similar for heads and spouse, but with a lower level of statistical significance for spouses.

2.12. Reducing poverty through labor markets requires interventions not only on the quality of the jobs available, but also on the qualifications of workers, and it is difficult to disentangle both. A study by IPEA (1999) quoted in the draft I-PRSP of the GRH (2000) argues that the key problem in the labor market is the quality of the jobs available. The study states that 84 percent of the difference in labor income between Honduras and other Latin American countries is due to the lower quality of the jobs, the rest (16 percent) being due to the lower quality of the workers. It is not clear what must be understood from the above. While there is no doubt that the quality of many jobs in Honduras is low, the lack of qualification of the labor force may well be at the root of the problem. If it is, the policy option would be to improve the qualification of the workforce. There are certainly other factors affecting the quality of the jobs available in Honduras (some are reviewed in chapter 3). But one should be careful before interpreting the IPEA decomposition as implying that the qualification of the workers is not a key issue.


2.13. Apart from the quality of the jobs available and the qualification of the workers, the lack of work remains also a problem for 10 to 20 percent of households. As noted in IPEA (1999) study and in the draft I-PRSP (GRH, 2000), Honduras has created many jobs in the 1990s, and this has helped in, among others, the absorption of a higher number of women in the labor force both in absolute and in percentage terms. However, the fact that the rate of unemployment is low by international standards is in part due to the fact that the poor simply cannot afford not to be working. In Honduras as in other low-income countries, there is no unemployment insurance and there are few cash transfer programs. Despite the fact that the poor cannot afford not to work, one out of ten households has a head that is either unemployed (and available or searching for work) or underemployed and willing to work more (table 2.5)4. The same is true for household spouses. Given the negative impact of these situations, the lack of work remains a problem, and this problem has risen with Hurricane Mitch. Between March 1998 and March 1999, the increase in unemployment and the desire to work more for those who are working is about two percentage points on average across the samples in table 2.5. There is no easy policy answer to the problem of unemployment and underemployment. Some countries have implemented public works programs at wages below minimum pay to ensure that the very poor can have some earnings during bad times. It is likely that some of the public funds now used for subsidies would be better employed in this type of programs, provided the self-selection mechanism through low wages is effective. More work is needed, however, to test whether this would be an appropriate policy for Honduras, given that there are other types of programs that could have a higher impact on poverty reduction.
Table 2.5: Employment, underemployment, and unemployment, percentage of heads and spouses




Household head

Household head’s spouse




Urban

Rural

Urban

Rural




1998

1999

1998

1999

1998

1999

1998

1999

Want to work more (1)

5.54

8.06

4.00

6.95

1.97

4.66

1.65

2.11

Unemployed and available (2)

1.45

2.43

0.91

0.99

5.59

6.52

7.48

6.93

Unemployed and searching (3)

3.43

2.25

0.76

0.93

1.06

0.47

0.55

0.27

Total (1)+(2)+(3)

10.42

12.74

5.67

8.87

8.62

11.65

9.68

9.31

Source: World Bank staff using EPHPM.
2.14. More employment opportunities would help to reduce poverty, provided the rise in employment is demand driven and pro-poor. While unemployment (and underemployment) is a key determinant of poverty in Honduras at the household level, it need not be at the aggregate level. To assess what would be the impact of an increase in employment on aggregate poverty, we run simple simulations whose results are reported in table 2.6. Among the urban adult (aged 25 to 60) male population that is not earning labor income in the survey, we select individuals to whom we give jobs. We give the jobs to either the poorest or the richest (according to their per capita household income) unemployed individuals in the sample. For these individuals, we predict earnings corresponding to their education and experience. The predicted earnings are obtained using Heckman regressions as mentioned in annex 2 (section MA.4). The total number of individuals put to work in the simulations is equal to five percent of the urban adult male population at work in the survey. The simulations are done assuming no change in aggregate wages. That is, we assume a demand-driven expansion in which both the demand for and supply of labor move to the right in a classic supply and demand diagram. The values given in table 2.5 are the percentage point reduction in the measures of poverty obtained with the simulation5. A demand driven expansion that helps the poor land jobs leads to a large decrease in extreme poverty (-2.52 points for the headcount) and poverty (-3.24 points). The impact is similar for the poverty gap and squared poverty gap. Since these poverty measures are smaller in absolute terms than the headcount index, this indicates a larger relative impact in terms of proportionate gains. However, if those who are comparatively richer get the jobs rather than the very poor, there is no reduction in extreme poverty because none of those who get the jobs is extremely poor, and there is a small reduction in poverty because some are moderately poor. These results are rough and indicative at best, but they help to highlight two basic conditions for employment generation to be poverty reducing: it has to be demand driven (i.e., it should not lead to a decrease in the aggregate level of wages), and it should be pro-poor.

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