Space Debris Will Keep Multiplying

As the number of artificial satellites in earth orbit increases, the probability of collisions between satellites also increases. Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of further collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the earth. This process parallels certain theories concerning the growth of the asteroid belt. The debris flux in such an earth-orbiting belt could exceed the natural meteoroid flux, affecting future spacecraft designs. A mathematical model was used to predict the rate at which such a belt might form. Under certain conditions the belt could begin to form within this century and could be a significant problem during the next century. The possibility that numerous unobserved fragments already exist from spacecraft explosions would decrease this time interval. However, early implementation of specialized launch constraints and operational procedures could significantly delay the formation of the belt.

Rocketing past the International Space Station at 29,000 miles per hour, a piece of space debris came only 1,100 feet away from a collision, forcing crew members to take refuge in two space capsules reserved for an emergency escape.

Since the launch of the first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, in 1957, Earth’s low orbit has become increasingly filled with man-made space debris—objects ranging from a single fleck of paint to larger explosion and collision fragments to entire defunct satellites.

Just two years ago, an Iridium satellite collided with an expired Russian Cosmos spacecraft, significantly contributing to the amount of debris already orbiting the Earth.

Throughout the past ten years, space has become inextricably linked to all aspects of human life. Just try to imagine one day without essentials like ATM machines, GPS devices, DirectTV and Weather.com. Both private activity and global commerce largely depend on communication, remote sensing and navigation satellites from space. Just three years ago, world government space program expenditures reached historical highs of more than $62 billion dollars.

Debris objects of 1 to 10 cm currently pose the biggest hazard:

President Obama's National Space Policy published this past June, pledged as one of its goal to begin researching ways to remove space debris. "The United States shall ... Pursue research and development of technologies and techniques ... to mitigate and remove on-orbit debris, reduce hazards, and increase understanding of the current and future debris environment.""We've been looking at that problem for several decades. We're still trying to develop a way forward on what technologies and concepts might be the most attractive, but we're years away from beginning to remove debris." NASA's Nicholas Johnson said.

While kinetic satellite killers all create debris fields, not all debris fields are created equally. For example, the Chinese ASAT event created a massive polar-orbiting debris field about 530 miles above the earth. Much of this debris will remain a hazard for centuries to come. NASA estimates there are over 150,000 pieces of debris associated with this event, and 2,600 of the pieces are 10cm (about four inches, the approximate diameter of a softball) or larger. Because of the high speeds in space—about 17,000 miles per hour for a polar orbit—if a satellite is struck by a one pound piece of metal about the size of a Snicker’s Bar, it can provide an impact force of almost 30,000 tons. For comparison, the impact of being stuck by a Chevy Suburban traveling 70 mph is about 54 tons.

Dealing with the decades of detritus from using outer space -- human-made orbital debris -- is a global concern. In a recent conference in Colorado, Gen. William Shelton, commander of the U.S. Air Force Space Command, relayed his worries about rising amounts of human-made space junk. We catalog those routinely and keep track of them. That number is projected to triple by 2030, and much of that is improved sensors, but some of that is increased traffic," Shelton said. "Then if you think about it, there are probably 10 times more objects in space than we're able to track with our sensor capability today. Those objects are untrackable … yet they are lethal to our space systems -- to military space systems, civil space systems,

a small chunk from a different Cosmos satellite hurtled toward the ISS, coming within a mile of a direct hit. Due to its speeding-bullet velocity, even this fragment could have had an impact equal to a truck bomb. “A 10-centimeter sphere of aluminum would be like 7 kilograms of TNT,” says Jack Bacon, a senior NASA scientist charged with keeping the ISS safe. “It would blow everything to smithereens.” Incidents like these served as clear signs from above that something must finally be done about space junk. Its proliferation threatens not only current and future space missions but also global communications—mobile phone networks, satellite television, radio broadcasts, weather tracking, and military surveillance, even the dashboard GPS devices that keep us from getting lost. The number of manufactured objects cluttering the sky is now expected to double every few years as large objects weaken and split apart and new collisions create more Kesslerian debris, leading to yet more collisions. NASA’s Bacon puts it bluntly: “The Kessler syndrome is in effect. We’re in a runaway environment, and we won’t be able to use space in the future if we don’t start dealing with this now.”

"We catalog those routinely and keep track of them. That number is projected to triple by 2030, and much of that is improved sensors, but some of that is increased traffic," Shelton said. "Then if you think about it, there are probably 10 times more objects in space than we're able to track with our sensor capability today. Those objects are untrackable … yet they are lethal to our space systems -- to military space systems, civil space systems, commercial -- no one’s immune from the threats that are on orbit today, just due to the traffic in space."

President Obama delivered his budget request for fiscal year 2011 to Congress on Monday, proposing sweeping changes to NASA's spaceflight program while increasing the agency's overall budget. As had been rumored for days, Obama's blueprint for NASA would cancel the Constellation program, the family of rockets and hardware now in development to replace the aging space shuttle, and would call instead on commercial vendors to fly astronauts to orbit.

Adaptive optics are necessary to correct for atmospheric turbulence.We recommend that existing technology be used to demonstrate the concept at a loss of about $20 million. We calculate that an installation to clear altitudes up to 800 km of 1cm to 10cm debris over 2 years of operation would cost about $80 million. Clearing altitudes up to 1,500 km would take about 3 years and cost about $160 million.

Our radar monitoring Earth-orbiting debris at NASA's Goldstone Tracking Station has been extended to an altitude of 3200 km.

The operation of GOLD has a lower risk of disabling other operational satellites and a lower risk of creating large orbit debris objects than competing de-orbit concepts. In addition, GOLD does not require an operating satellite to provide attitude stabilization or power.

GOLD can be integrated onto the satellite prior to launch or attached to derelict satellites by robots to begin active debris removal from the most important orbital regions. De-orbit from LEO can be reduced, in some cases, from many centuries to as little as a few months and for a tiny fraction of the cost of a spacecraft. Such a system can assist civilian, commercial and military space satellite operators in meeting their obligations to mitigate the growing space debris problem in a cost effective and low risk way.

Global Aerospace Corporation is developing a Gossamer Orbit Lowering Device (GOLD) for safe and efficient removal from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) of dangerous space junk. The GOLD system concept uses a very large ultra thin balloon envelope to increase the aerodynamic drag by a factor of several hundred. This will cause the space junk to enter the earth’s atmosphere quickly and burn up. It will reduce the natural orbit decay of some objects from centuries to months.

The system will work even though it will get punctured many times by small debris objects and tiny meteoroids.The pressurization system will very easily keep up with the leakage. In the very unlikely event that a large object hits the very thin envelope, it will not cause that large object to break up into new fragments. Therefore, the operation itself of GOLD cannot make the orbital debris environment worse as could be the case with some alternative de-orbit concepts that others have suggested like electromagnetic tethers, gravity gradient tapes and boom-supported films.

Radars are needed to assist lasers in achieving their target

No. 222595 File: Space Trash Solvency :: Radar Cut By Lexi Brey
Total Time: 0:23 Cut Time: 0:00 (at 200 wpm)
C.R. Phippsa, G. Albrechta, H. Friedman, D. Gavela, E.V. Georgea, J. Murraya, C. Hoa, W. Priedhorskya, M.M. Michaelisa, and J.P. Reillya Advanced Optical Systems Development Group, Mail Stop E543, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA a2 Advanced Applications Group, Mail Stop L488, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA a3 Astrophysics and Radiation Measurements Group, Mail Stop D-436, Los Alamos, National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA a4 Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Natal, Durban 4001, South Africa a5 Northeast Science and Technology Inc., 117 Northshore Blvd., East Sandwich, MA 02537, USA
Cambridge.org / October 11 1995 Page 1
Title: ORION: Clearing near-Earth space debris using a 20-kW, 530-nm, Earth-based, repetitively pulsed laser

When a large piece of space debris forced a change of flight plan for are sent U.S. Space Shuttle mission, the concept that we are trashing space as well as Earth finally attained broad public awareness. Almost a million pieces of debris have been generated by 35 years of spaceflight, and now threaten long-term space missions. We believe that the best means of accomplishing these goals is to provide a very high-resolution optical detection system to locate objects

Table 5 Mass, volume and cost estimates for 5-, 10- and 15-meter TRIS systems for deorbiting satellites in LEO (Beckett et al. 2004).

Mass (kg) Stowed Volume(m3) Average Box Side(m) Estimated Cost ($k)
5-meter 5.33 0.0026 0.139 72
10-meter 13.39 0.011 0.220 80
15-meter 23.99 0.024 0.288 105

Several technical risks need to be further addressed in the design of the TRIS systems: storage requirements, spacecraft stability during deployment scenario, additional requirements for Attitude Control System (ACS), sizing and shape of the TRIS device, materials properties and manufacturing issues, and mission lifetime estimates including TRIS device impact (Beckett et al. 2004).

BATC has invested substantially in the development of inflatable space structures (as the class of Gossamer space structures) including inflatable rigidizable materials, controlled deployment mechanisms and manufacturing techniques. A 14-m inflatable parabolic dish antenna was successfully deployed and tested during the STS-77 Shuttle mission. Another successful flight of an inflatable space structure was performed by Bigelow Aerospace Corp. in 2006 (Genesis I module flown) and again in 2007 (Genesis II module flown). Inflatable structures are very lightweight, tightly packed and occupy a very small volume when stowed, and are thus relatively easily accommodated in the spacecraft. They are constructed of purely inflatable membrane components, or inflatable-rigidizable components, or both. They are built from metallised
polymers or structural fabrics (like Kevlar, graphite cloth, and etc.) and rigidizing can be achieved via different means like e.g., hardening via pressurization pulse, temperature, UV radiation, or vacuum. A comparative study for different initial altitudes for a satellite in a circular orbit shows
effectiveness of the three different devices of 5 m2, 10 m2, and 15 m2 in area. The results are presented below in Figures 20, 21 and 22. All estimates were obtained using STK software and using the nominal Jacchia-Roberts atmospheric with model Shatten solar flux predictions (Beckett et al. 2004).

Tchnology for GOLD Balloons is Currently available and effective

No. 222608 File: Space Trash Solvency :: Solvency for GOLD BALLONS Cut By Amber Benning
Total Time: 1:06 Cut Time: 0:00 (at 200 wpm)
Global Aerospace Corporation
http://www.gaerospace.com/projects/GOLD/de-orbit_concepts.html / 2011
Title: Gossamer Orbit Lowering Device (GOLD) for Low-risk Satellite De-orbit

Global Aerospace Corporation has developed a Gossamer Orbit Lowering Device (GOLD) for safe and efficient removal from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) of dangerous space junk. The patented GOLD system concept uses a very large ultra thin balloon envelope to increase the aerodynamic drag by a factor of several hundred. This will cause the space junk to enter the earth’s atmosphere quickly and burn up. It will reduce the natural orbit decay of some objects from centuries to months. The envelope material is thinner and lighter than sandwich bag material. It takes a very small amount of gas to inflate it in the almost perfect vacuum of space. Although the ultra thin envelope could be the size of a sports field (100 m diameter) when inflated, it is so thin that it can be folded and stowed in a surprisingly small volume (a medium size suitcase). There are three possible applications of GOLD. It is most economical to attach it to a spacecraft or rocket upper stage before launch and deploy it after the end of mission. However, GOLD could be attached to existing large debris objects using an orbital robot. For large dense objects that could pose a hazard to people or property on the ground during reentry, GOLD can be used to aim the reentry safely into an ocean.

As various organizations and individuals focus on developing the next disruptive technology to combat the space debris crisis, the U.S. Air Force is simultaneously working to improve its space surveillance capability. First it wants to replace its current Space Surveillance System, or VHF Fence, which has been in service since 1961. The replacement program, dubbed Space Fence, will be designed to provide enhanced space surveillance capabilities to detect, track and measure these smaller pieces of debris as well as commercial and military satellites. For example, Space Fence will be able to detect a piece of debris the size of a softball traveling at 17,000 miles per hour from more than 1,800 miles away. This enhanced capability will allow precise cataloging of up to 10 times the number of low earth orbiting objects than the current systems in place.

Light can exert a push on matter, a fact that scientists have used to develop solar sails that can fly through space on sunlight. The researchers suggest that a medium-power commercially available laser with a 5-to-10-kilowatt beam constantly focused on a piece of debris could work, located someplace such as the Plateau Observatory in Antarctica.

As an example, they considered a real mid-size piece of debris — ASTRO-F, a discarded lens cap 31 inches (80 centimeters) wide and 11 pounds (5 kilograms) in mass from the Japanese Akari telescope in a near-circular orbit about 434 miles (700 kilometers) in altitude. A laser at PLATO shining on this piece of junk for about two hours over the course of two days could move it away from a dangerous orbit.

The 5-kilowatt laser would cost about $800,000, and a single device could probably engage about 10 objects a day. However, the scientists do note that the actual cost of an operating system, including telescope, would likely be tens of millions of dollars.

“Space junk” or debris has become an increasing threat to commercial satellites along with spacecraft and the International Space Station. Now NASA scientists may have a new option for reducing debris. Collisions with debris, and the resulting damage, have the potential for being costly and difficult to repair.

A California company is pushing giant balloons as a solution to the growing problem of space junk in orbit around Earth. NASA estimates that over half a million objects at least one centimeter wide, leftover or broken-up spacecraft parts, are circling the planet and threatening to damage other, still functioning craft. Computer-generated illustration of a GOLD balloon de-orbiting a large observatory. (Global Aerospace Corp. drawing against a NASA background image) Although the chances of collisions remain low, they rise with each collision that throws off new bits of fast-moving junk, as occurred when American and Russian communications satellites crashed last year. Engineers expect the costs to eventually spin out of control unless something is done.

It’s easily inflated in space, and best of all, if the deployed GOLD balloon collides with space junk, it won’t deflate or break the junk into smaller, less manageable bits: unlike other proposed solutions to our Pig-Pen dilemma, it won’t make the problem worse. GOLD can be attached to existing large debris using an orbital robot, but the best tactic is to include it at launch to be deployed at the end of a mission. Current missions pack a little extra fuel to bring the craft down, but the GOLD system actually weighs and costs less. Read more: Giant Balloons Could Solve Space Junk Problem | Inhabitat - Green Design Will Save the World

Scientists have been calling out for clever ideas on how to clean up space junk for years now, and with President Obama's recent backing of getting the outskirts of our planet cleared of debris, more ideas seem to be pouring in. Some have been way out there, such as shooting water at the debris to knock it out of orbit. But others seem slightly more plausible, such as the Gossamer Orbit Lowering Device, or GOLD. Dr. Kristin L. Gates of the Global Aerospace Corporation (GAC) will present the idea of GOLD, a patented system that uses an ultra thin balloon envelope -- thinner than a plastic sandwich bag -- inflated with gas to the size of a sports field (about 100 years in diameter) that will increase drag enough that the space junk will enter the earth's atmosphere and burn up. If it works, it could mean speeding clean-up of some object from a few hundred years to a few months

Project ORION proposed using ground-based lasers to de-orbit debris. This approach is using wave lasers or high energy pulses to vaporize the debris surface material and provide sufficient recoil to deorbit the object. Space-based lasers have also been considered, but ground based laser systems have the advantage of greatly simplified operations, maintenance and overall system cost. This system proposed uses a continuous wave laser mounted on a fast slewing optical telescope with adaptive optics and a sodium guide star, which allows the laser beam to be continuously focused and directed onto the target throughout its pass. The threat of catastrophic or debilitating collisions between active spacecraft and orbital debris is gaining. Many satellite owner/operators are primarily concerned with the near term risk to their own spacecraft. This plan reduces the potential for the laser system to accidentally damage active satellites or to be perceived as a weapon.

GOLD has numerous advantages: It’s cheap, it can be built into rocket upper-stages before they’re launched so that new rockets never pose a space junk threat, and its proposed material is tough enough that even though the balloon envelope will definitely be damaged by space junk itself, it’ll never tear and generate more junk by itself.

President Barack Obama believes that good relations between Moscow and Washington meet the US national interests, and the country will make every effort to boost bilateral ties with Russia. The announcement was made by the White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs during a press-briefing on Tuesday.

The Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has repeatedly stressed the need for friendly relations with the US for the sake of a positive global political climate. That is why it is necessary to ratify the new strategic arms reduction treaty signed by the two presidents on 8 April in Prague. This will certainly give a new impulse to a ‘reset’ in Russia-US relations. The two countries share huge potential in fighting terrorism, extremist, drug trafficking, and also in handling regional conflicts all across the world. So, it would be unwise to spoil the improving relations because of the spy scandal which resembles a storm in a teacup.

After seven years, "the picture is overall positive, not least because a number of U.S. companies have become closely intertwined with their Russian aerospace counterparts. These close working relationships, if they are successful, produce a community of interests that invest Russian industry specialists in the cooperation. Their paychecks become regular, and they experience other worthwhile perquisites such as occasional trips to the United States. They also experience collegial relationships with their U.S. colleagues that enhance their sense of the strength of Russian technology to compete in the world market. Although not tension-free, such relationships create a common understanding of technical and other requirements, including export control requirements."

On January 23, 1979, Canada presented a claim to the Soviet Union for damages from the Cosmos mishap in the amount of $6,041,174.70. This sum, later reduced to $6,026,083.56, represented "those costs in respect of the operations which would not have been incurred had the satellite not entered Canadian territory."

Today’s headline is that China has soared into space. What it accomplished was to reach with a land-based missile an old Chinese weather satellite and blow it to smithereens—literally: There are 300,000 bits of it cavorting in space, which will take a quarter century to clean up. And orbiting debris was one of the dangers specifically addressed in the Bush administration’s new policy.Two parts of the story attract attention. The first is that we were taken by surprise.It is embarrassing to proclaim, in October, that the U.S. will “dissuade” any power that seeks military leverage in space, and then to confront, in January, evidence that exactly what we set out to prevent has happened. Why was it beyond U.S. intelligence to foresee Chinese progress along these lines? And if it is deducible from street knowledge of Chinese ambitions, prowess, and technological savoir-faire that China was likely to develop the capability of projecting a missile 500 miles into space.

The era of entering outer space is coming to a close, and a new era characterized by a more sophisticated utilization of outer space is emerging. This means working at the international level on developing effective and efficient systems of governance that would address mitigation and removal of orbital debris, filling the need for international civil SSA, and the prevention of a space arms race that could lead to destructive activities in orbit. Given nearly six decades of practical experience in space technology and policy, the United States will continue to play a key role in this new era of space utilization.It can pursue, however, a stronger leadership stance by highlighting the need for cooperative space governance among international partners and by welcoming all to the table. Failure to cooperate internationally on matters related to space sustainability can lead to uncertainty, misunderstandings, and even conflict.

The station's shielding protects it from a near-constant pelting by tiny motes of fast-moving debris. But those defenses would likely have been breached had the object slammed into the orbiting lab yesterday. The piece was large enough to be tracked, meaning it was at least 4 inches in diameter, NASA officials said. It was a close call, and was the closest a dangerous piece of debris has ever come to hitting the station, NASA officials said. "We tracked the object after it came past station," Bill Gerstenmaier, NASA's space operations chief, said in a news briefing on Tuesday. It "came within 335 meters of (the) space station on best estimate."

The space station's armor can generally withstand impacts by debris up to 0.8 inches in diameter, NASA researchers have said. But the huge numbers of large objects mean that a collision with a dangerous piece of space junk is a real possibility. In fact, the chances of having to evacuate some of the space station's crew and send them home to Earth due to orbital debris is about 1-in-100 during every six-month period, NASA spokesman Kelly Humphries told Space.com. The average length of a station crew's mission is about six months.

A geostationary orbit means that a satellite is orbiting the Earth at such a distance and speed so that it is always over the same spot. To stay in a geostationary orbit, a satellite must occupy a small ring of space above the equator. This means that there can only be so many geostationary satellites before that ring is full. Because of this scarcity, many countries have disputes over slots for their satellites in geostationary orbit. A separate United Nations institution called the International Telecommunications Union is tasked with resolving these disputes. This organization was created to regulate information and communication technology issues, and generally acts impartially when settling disputes. But eventually all the geostationary orbits will be taken. When that happens, it's likely that no amount of diplomacy on the part of the United Nations will be able to resolve disputes.

In order to appreciate the contents of this assessment, it is necessary to first understand the various reasons that led the United States to seek expanded U.S.-Russian space cooperation, particularly in human space flight. One of those most influential in shaping the thinking of U.S. government officials about the desirability of expanded cooperation in space with Russia was Roald Sagdeev. During the 1970s and 1980s, Sagdeev was director of the organization in the Soviet Union responsible for space science. He also served as a top science and arms control advisor to Mikhail Gorbachev. In the early 1990s, Sagdeev emigrated to the United States where he became a professor of physics at the University of Maryland and a well-placed advocate of expanded U.S.-Russian cooperation. In the midst of the 1993 debate over the wisdom of bringing Russia into the space station partnership, Sagdeev and his Maryland colleague Michael Nacht wrote: In the post-cold-war world, space policy is foreign policy. Russian participation could advance U.S. goals in the former Soviet Union and strengthen President Boris Yeltsin. First, it would provide hard currency for the Government. Second, Russia is struggling to cling to the vestiges of its superpower status, and hardliners, in their fight against reforms, have played on the people's fear of diminished international standing. Remaining active in space exploration could help Russia maintain technological prestige while it reduces its nuclear arsenal. The project would allow Russia's talented scientists and engineers to escape from the confines of the military and intelligence apparatus. They could show American experts the full range of their skills and technology. This could open the doors to legitimate financial opportunities at a time when many are tempted by lucrative projects that would enhance the military capabilities of third world despots. This listing of benefits to U.S. interests from expanded U.S.-Russian space cooperation closely parallels the rationales used by pro-cooperation advocates inside the U.S. government as the debate over expanded cooperation took place in 1992 and 1993.

Russia is attempting to reconstitute its constellation of early-warning satellites. But Russia will still have limited warning and will depend heavily on its space-based systems.What would happen if a piece of space debris were to disable a Russian early-warning satellite? Could the Russian military distinguish between an accident in space and the first phase of a U.S. attack? The unpleasant truth is that the Russians likely would have to make a judgment call. Even the United States does not maintain a sophisticated space surveillance system that would allow it to distinguish between a satellite malfunction, a debris strike or a deliberate attack – and Russian space surveillance capabilities are much more limited by comparison. how confident could U.S. planners be that the Russians would be so calm if the accident in space occurred in tandem with a second false alarm, or occurred during the middle of a crisis? What might happen if the debris strike occurred shortly after a false alarm showing a missile launch? False alarms are appallingly common – The loss of an early-warning satellite could look rather ominous if it occurred during a period of major tension in the relationship.

Helms articulated the need for cooperation at the Sixth Annual Ilan Ramon International Space Conference in Tel Aviv, and again shortly after she returned to the U.S. last month. Her statements echo recommendations laid out in the U.S. National Space Policy, which was announced by President Obama last June. A key component of SSA is tracking and cataloguing objects in space, which help prevent collisions with spacecraft. However, with 22,000 pieces of trackable space junk and more than 60 nations operating in space, the U.S. will have a tough time going it alone, officials said. The National Space Policy acknowledges that fact, stating that no single country has the resources to precisely track every object in space. [Video: Expanding Threat of Space Debris] "It directs us to collaborate with other nations, the private-sector and intergovernmental organizations to improve our space situational awareness — specifically to enhance our shared ability to rapidly detect, warn of, characterize and attribute natural and man-made disturbances to space systems," Helms said.

So this “space handshake diplomacy” is a very unreliable basis for advocating future space policy. “I am convinced that all future flights will be international,” Leonov said at the NASM. Stafford agreed that international efforts are needed for the return to the Moon and making several expeditions to Mars. But why should merely saying so make it true? The future role of international partners in American projects under development is only now being assessed, and a cold-blooded assessment of costs versus benefits needs to be made, independent of feel-good boasts from space pilots.