Chinese Cooperation Affirmative Index


It is impossible to determine the exact location or amount of space debris



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It is impossible to determine the exact location or amount of space debris
Gautam D. Badhwar and Phillip D. Anz-Meador NASA Johnson Space Center, Lockheed-ESC

http://www.springerlink.com/content/uk1581761tp71h73/ / February 13, 1989 

Title: Determination of the area and mass distribution of orbital debris fragments
An important factor in modeling the orbital debris environment is the loss rate of debris due to atmospheric drag and luni/solar perturbations. An accurate knowledge of the area-to-mass ratio of debris fragments is required for the calculation of the effect of atmospheric drag. In general, this factor is unknown and assumed values are used. However, this ratio can be calculated for fragments for which changes in the orbital elements due to atmospheric drag as a function of time are known. This is the inverse of the technique used to determine the atmospheric density from the decay of satellites with accurately known area-to-mass ratios. These kinds of propagation programs are routinely used in predicting the decay of an orbiting vehicle. In this work the area-to-mass ratio of about 2600 fragments arising from the breakup of 24 artificial satellites have been determined. An analysis of the data on about 200 objects (rocket bodies, scientific satellites, etc.) with known mass, size, and shape has also been made. The value of the radar cross-section (RCS), as measured by the Eglin radar operating at 70 cm wavelength, has been correlated to the effective area of these objects. The measurements of the area-to-mass ratio of these objects then provide a calibration of the actual to the calculated mass. It has been shown that the debris mean mass, m, is related to the mean effective area, A, by a power law relation, m = k A 1.86. However, for a given effective area the mass distribution is very broad. Moreover, the cumulative mass distribution, N(>m), can be expressed as N(>m) = D(m + b), where D, b, and c are constants. The asymptotic slope, c, of low intensity explosions is on the average lower than the slope for high intensity explosions, but there is considerable spread of this slope in each class. Part of the flattening, as indicated by the finite value of the parameter, b, can be understood as arising out of the spread in the RCS values due to the tumbling motion of the fragments and effects related to the detectability of the fragment by the Eglin radar. It has been established that the mass in a given breakup calculated using this technique is in good agreement with the expected mass value. These results can be used in modeling the breakups of other artificial earth satellites and safety analysis.
Odds of anyone being hurt from falling debris: 1 in a trillion
By Seth Borenstein associated press

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23259332/ns/technology_and_science-space/t/space-junk-hits-earth-often-not-people/ / 2/20/2008 

Title: Space junk hits Earth often, not people
Giant chunks of manmade space junk — like the dead satellite that the U.S. government is trying to shoot down — regularly fall to Earth. Yet no one has ever been reported hurt by them.Chunks of debris weighing two tons or more from satellites and rocket parts fall uncontrolled every three weeks or so, according to an analysis by a Harvard University astronomer who tracks satellites and space debris.Yet experts in the field know of only one report of a person being hit by space debris. Lottie Williams of Tulsa, Okla., was struck on the shoulder in 1997 by a small piece of debris from a discarded piece of a Delta rocket. She was unhurt.

Space Debris is everywhere! It is to difficult to get it all
Leonard David Space.com’s Space Insider Columnist

space.com / 2011 Page 1

Title: Ugly Truth of Space Junk: Orbital Debris Problem to Triple by 2030
In a recent conference here, Gen. William Shelton, commander of the U.S. Air Force Space Command, relayed his worries about rising amounts of human-made space junk. Given existing space situational awareness capabilities, over 20,000 objects are now tracked.Shelton said. "Then if you think about it, there are probably 10 times more objects in space than we're able to track with our sensor capability today. Those objects are untrackable…" The good news is that no immediate action is necessary in terms of removing debris objects, Marshall Kaplan, an orbital debris expert within the Space Department at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Md, advised.

Technology for removal is too expensive, and is not proven
Stefan Lovgren Astronomer, National Geographic news

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/01/0119_060119_space_junk_2.html / January 19, 2006 

Title: Space Junk Cleanup Needed, NASA Experts Warn
So far, efforts have concentrated on preventing new debris. Johnson believes it may be time to think about how to remove junk from space. But that is a difficult proposition. Previous proposals have ranged from sending up spacecraft to grab junk and bring it down to using lasers to slow an object's orbit to cause it to fall back to Earth more quickly. Given current technology, those proposals appear neither technically feasible nor economically viable, Johnson admits.
The U.S. must cooperate with other countries to solve for space debris
Secure World Foundation / 2009 Page 7

Title: What Can the World Do About Space Debris? An Urgent Call to Action


The Congress noted that a critical next step is engaging with the growing number of developing countries that are using satellites to help protect their populations and manage natural resources. While they may not have independent spacefaring capabilities, orbital debris is an area of concern for them and they can contribute meaningfully to the process. Space debris is primarily a global issue. Global problems need globally solutions, which must be effectively implemented internationally as well as nationally, said McGill University’s Ram Jakhu, Chair of the Congress.


Space Debris cant be solved. Lasers arent forceful enough
Lisa Grossman Journalist for Wired Science

Wired Science / 2011 

Title: NASA Considers Shooting Space Junk With Lasers
“I don’t think this is a long-term solution,” said Brian Weeden, a technical adviser for the Secure World Foundation. “It might be useful to buy some time. But I don’t think it would replace the need to remove debris, or stop creating new junk.” Don Kessler, from whom the Kessler syndrome takes its name, agrees, and points out that laser isn’t forceful enough to divert the biggest pieces of junk.”

The balloon/ aerogel idea is expensive, and ineffective when facing a collision course with a satellite.
Satellite pollution institute 

http://satellitepollution.com/cleaning-up-space-junk.html / June 3, 2011 

Title: Cleaning Up Space Junk
an idea is to intercept space debris with a giant ball of aerogel, an orbital debris collector, or ODC. These giant Nerf balls—over a mile wide—could be put into collision courses with space debris. The friction generated from the collision would send the debris back to earth. The problem is that unlike lasers, an ODC couldn’t pick its target. Working satellites might also collide with the ODC and be plunged back to earth. These ideas all share one thing in common: they are expensive and complicated.


Debris removal tech needs at least 5-10 years in development
Ansdell Megan Ansdell is a second year graduate student in the Master in International Science and Technology Policy program at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, where she focuses on space policy.,

http://www.princeton.edu/jpia/past-issues-1/2010/Space-Debris-Removal. / 2010 

Title: Active Space Debris Removal: Needs, Implications, and Recommendations for Today’s Geopolitical Environment
There are substantial technical, economic, political, and legal barriers to developing, deploying, and operating active debris removal systems. Many current concepts rely on unproven technology, which means they will require substantial time and money to develop and deploy. The quantity of time and money required will vary with each concept, and detailed estimations are not publicly available because of the nascent state of the field. However, as a rough point of reference, it costs around $10,000 per kilogram to launch anything into orbit, making the cost of merely launching many of the aforementioned systems on the order of millions of dollars. Moreover, flagship missions at NASA, depending on their size, take five to ten years to plan, develop, and launch.

Our current radar technology will not be able to get rid of small debris
Sarah D. Dahl Major, US Air Force

http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA539788&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf / April 2009 Page 25-26

Title: IS IT TIME FOR SPACE DEBRIS REDUCTION CAPABILITIES?
Another possible solution for the removal of existing debris and fragmentation is through the laser space propulsion. An Orion study conducted by NASA and the USAF in 1996 concluded that it was technically feasible to develop a capability to remove debris in space using ground-based lasers. The team took into consideration the different materials in which space debris consists of aluminum, carbon phenolic, sodium/potassium metal, steel, and multiplayer insulation) and proposed a technique that uses the surface material of the debris as a propellant to either send the debris to higher orbits or de-orbit back to Earth. “In essence, the intensity of the laser must be sufficiently great to cause the material on the surface of the object to form a vapor, which as this hot vapor expands imparts a force or thrust to the object.” 95 The optimal intensity of the laser energy depends on the material of the debris and the laser pulses’ duration to create 25 this propulsion. “This system would be effective against both metallic and nonmetallic targets in space, and could be effective against materials that are in higher orbital altitudes.”96 Although technically feasible, another study conducted in 2000 assessed whether it was cost effective. This study used the Iridium satellite system and the number of objects in LEO as a basis for their estimate. The $3.450 billion system is comprised of 66 satellites (each satellite being worth approximately $50 million), and the estimated amount of damage to satellites in this orbit was found to be $40M per year.97 The study concluded that one ground-based laser facility operating near the equator “could remove all orbital debris up to an altitude of 800 km in two years” for about $100 to 200M.98 The team also recommended a technical demonstration study to further this concept, but it is unknown at this time as to whether anything is underway to make this capability a reality. However, one of the challenges facing the employment of this solution would likely be the ground facility’s dependency with the tracking capabilities existing today. It would seem that for this ground-based laser facility to be effective, it would require dedicated and improved tracking capabilities to track debris smaller than 10-cm, which again, can still damage a satellite and create more debris). Thus, the costs associated with this solution may not truly include a system level approach to employment.

Gold Baloons Only remove the big Debris
Jaymi Heimbuch degree in English from California Polytechnic State University

http://www.treehugger.com/author/jaymi-heimbuch-san-francisco-c-1/ / 8. 4.10 

Title: Giant GOLD Balloon to Clean Up Space Junk
Hundreds of old spacecrafts, rocket bodies, satellites and other parts are currently orbiting Earth, and they are now a safety issue for new crafts launched for exploration. Not only can debris collide with functional crafts like satellites, but it is also posing a risk for astronauts.
Small Debris Causes most of the Issues in space.
NASA 

http://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/k-4/stories/what-is-orbital-debris-k4.html / 06.08.10 


Most "space junk" is moving very fast. It can reach speeds of 4.3 to 5 miles per second. Five miles per second is about 18,000 miles per hour. That's almost seven times faster than a bullet. Since it is moving so quickly, a tiny piece of orbital debris can cause a lot of damage. A piece of debris the size of a marble could hit as hard as a bowling ball going 300 miles per hour.


Big Debris is Avoidable currently
NASA 

http://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/k-4/stories/what-is-orbital-debris-k4.html / 06.08.10 


NASA knows where larger space debris is. The International Space Station can change its path to stay away from objects that would damage it. Plus, the space station has shields to protect it. The debris hits extra panels instead of important parts

Neg- Misc


Russia has already put into motion a plan to remove Space Debris
Jaymi Heimbuch Journalist For Smithsonian Institute

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2010/11/russia-investing-2-billion-in-space-debris-removal.php / 11/29/10 

Title: Russia Investing $2 Billion in Space Debris Removal
We've seen some crazy ideas for getting rid of space debris, a problem that sounds absurd in itself but is actually a real issue for satellites and even astronauts in the International Space Station. However, Russia is set on a concept that they think is worth serious investment -- about a $2 billion investment. Energia, Russia's space corporation, is planning to build a "pod" that will knock junk out of orbit and back down to earth. 
According to Fast Company, the pod will have a nuclear power core to keep it running for about 15 years while it orbits the earth knocking defunct satellites out of orbit so that it can either burn up in the atmosphere or drop into the ocean (hopefully not on somewhere populated...). 
The pod will be constructed by 2020 and the company hopes it will be in operation by 2023. One of the company's representatives, Victor Sinyavsky, states "The corporation promised to clean up the space in ten years by collecting about 600 defunct satellites on the same geosynchronous orbit and sinking them into the ocean subsequently," Space Daily reports. 
This seems like a more legitimate idea than others we've heard of, including shooting junk with water or using giant nets. Silly as it sounds, concepts for removing space debris are getting serious attention as the area around our planet is increasingly clogged with everything from old satellites to spacecraft parts. 

space debris deemed no threat to space station
Denise Chow journalist 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43713326/ns/technology_and_science-space/ / 7/11/2011 

Title: Soviet debris deemed no threat to space station
A piece of space junk from an old Soviet satellite will pose no danger to the International Space Station and the attached shuttle Atlantis, thanks in large part to the weekend docking of the two spacecraft, NASA officials said Monday. 
"Mission Control has verified that the track of a piece of orbital debris will not be a threat to the International Space Station and space shuttle Atlantis," agency officials said in a statement. "No adjustments to the docked spacecraft’s orbit will be necessary to avoid the debris." 

Airforce Already Working on a way to Deal With Debris
Alex Sciuto Scientist for Orbital Debris

http://idealab.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/01/air-force-plans-to-track-20000-pieces-of-space-trash.php / January 25, 2011 

Title: Air Force Plans To Track 20,000 Pieces of Space Trash
Above our heads, 21,000 pieces of man-made junk uncomfortably share the orbit around our planet with satellites, space craft and space platforms. These chunks of orbital debris threaten to collide with all that equipment, potentially bringing down communications, scientific, and military satellites. But if the Air Force has its way, its Space Fence system will track the thousands of pieces of debris and give data to scientists to help them avoid collisions

Russia’s space corporation is already investing to take care of space debris problem
Julie Beck journalist of Popular Science 

http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2010-11/russia-invests-2-billion-clean-space-debris / 11.29.2010 

Title: Russia Invests $2 Billion To Clean Up Space Debris
Hare-brained schemes for cleaning up space debris have been batted around for some time, but Russia has finally put some money down on a real project. Russia’s space corporation, Energia, is going to invest $2 billion to build a space pod to fly around and knock the junk out of orbit and out of our way. Hopefully it will burn up in the atmosphere, or land in the ocean, and not rain down on Chinese villagers. 

This pod could help reopen orbits that are currently inaccessible to future spacecraft due to the amount of shredded metal and empty hulls of dead satellites floating around. Using an ion drive, it will gently nudge these useless scraps out of orbit. Energia plans to have completed testing on the pod, which will have a nuclear power core, by 2020, and have it in service no later than three years after. It will have a lifespan of about 15 years, enough time to make a significant dent in our space debris problem. 

Energia is also working on developing an “interceptor” spacecraft using similar technology. This craft would be able to derail any incoming comets or other outer-space projectiles that might be hurtling towards Earth, and change their trajectory just enough that they miss us.

Space Debris Exists Now, but NASA plans to solve with lasers instead
TheWeek 11 News Magazine

http://theweek.com/article/index/213197/nasas-plan-to-clean-up-space-junk-lasers / March 17, 2011 

Title: NASA's plan to clean up space junk: Lasers
The earth is surrounded by an ever-growing cloud of broken satellites, missile parts, and shuttle debris, and no one knows quite how to deal with it. A Japanese firm came up with the radical-sounding idea of using a vast fishing net for cleanup, but NASA researchers have a simpler idea: Lasers. Here, an instant guide to the latest solution to our space garbage problems: How serious is this space junk dilemma? Pretty serious. Around 370,000 pieces of defunct satellite parts, abandoned shuttle parts, and scraps of metal and paint are orbiting Earth. Experts warned as long ago as 1978 that too much space garbage could result in "Kessler syndrome" — the point where the junk is so ubiquitous that space becomes too dangerous to fly in. Why are scraps of metal so dangerous? They wouldn't be harmful down here on Earth. But in orbit, everything moves at an incredible speed. Even a tiny bolt travelling at 5 miles per second could take out an entire GPS satellite. A larger hulk of rocket debris could vaporize a passing space shuttle. How could a laser help destroy the garbage? Actually, it wouldn't destroy it. Instead, NASA's plan is to move the garbage out of the path of satellites and spacecraft. The laser would ideally be mounted on one of the Earth's poles, where the atmosphere is thinner, and would send pulses of photon pressure to "nudge" objects out of the way. Couldn't we just blast it out of the sky, though? A weapons-grade laser might be able to do that — but building such a space weapon would undoubtedly raise the ire of China and Russia. And even if you did destroy large pieces of garbage, it would only break down into smaller pieces which have the potential to do at least as much damage.

Space Exploration Causes a Massive Influx of Space Debris
Thierry Sénéchal a founding partner of INDEVAL Switzerland. He holds degrees in economics and finance from Harvard University, London Business School, and Columbia University with highest honours (Phi Beta Kappa)

http://www.pon.org/downloads/ien16.2.Senechal.pdf / 2007 

Title: Space Debris Pollution: A Convention Proposal
It is time to recognize that while space may be infinite, Earth orbital space is a finite natural resource that must be managed properly. The outer space environment should be preserved to enable countries to explore outer space for peaceful purposes, without any constraints. It has become obvious that space debris poses a danger to human life as well as to the environment and the economic activities of all nations in space. The problem we face is complex and serious; the danger posed by the human-made debris to operational spacecraft (pilotless or piloted) is a growing concern. Because debris remains in orbit for long period of time, they tend to accumulate, particularly in the low earth orbit. What is certain today is that the current debris population in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) region has reached the point where the environment is unstable and collisions will become the most dominant debris-generating mechanism in the future. The tremendous increase in the probability of collision exists in the near future (about 10 to 50 years). Some collisions will lead to breakups and will sow fragments all over the geosynchronous area, making it simply uninhabitable and unreliable for scientific and commercial purposes. In the early years of the space era, mankind was concerned primarily with conquering space. The process of placing an aircraft in Earth‘s orbit and targeting the moon was such a challenge that little thought was given to the consequences that might arise from these actions. Space debris has thus been created at the time of the cold war, when the military and space race between the two great powers of the time was at its peak. Not much can be done to change what has been done during the last decades of the 20th Century.
spacecraft are protected by shields
Jennifer Bergman. 2 degrees in Atmospheric Space Science Engineering from the University of Michigan.

http://www.windows2universe.org/headline_universe/space_debris_update.html / May 9, 2009 

Title: Space Debris Update
here are about 500 working spacecraft, including the International Space Station (ISS), that must be protected from space debris. Mostly, they are protected by shields that are not hurt by space junk. NASA tested different types of shielding in the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF). The LDEF was put in orbit April 1984 by the Shuttle Challenger. It was collected 5.7 years later. 
Besides having shielding from space junk, a spacecraft can move out of the way to avoid getting hit by debris. Currently, the Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (CORDS) helps space mission controllers plan so as to avoid impacts between their spacecraft and space junk.

space junk isn't likely to endanger humans or other life on Earth
Jennifer Bergman. 2 degrees in Atmospheric Space Science Engineering from the University of Michigan.

http://www.windows2universe.org/headline_universe/space_debris_update.html / May 7, 2009 

Title: Space Debris Update
Earth from Oregon, U.S., to Uganda, Africa, falling space junk isn't likely to endanger humans or other life on Earth. Most space debris is small enough that it burns up in the atmosphere of Earth. Otherwise, it usually falls into the ocean which covers 2/3 of the planet.

Us.- Russia Relations are bad now
Us. News 

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2008/12/17/hot-docs-very-bad-us-russia-relations-pakistans-militant-problem / December 17, 2008 

Title: ‘Very Bad’ U.S.-Russia Relations, Pakistan’s Militant Problem
"U.S.-Russian relations matter again," notes one Russia scholar. They are, however, currently "very bad—and potentially dangerous—but in a different way" than they were during the Cold War. Dmitri Trenin, deputy director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, writes in a new policy brief that the relationship is potentially dicey because of the "absence of rules" as Russia's political system continues to evolve.



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