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Impact Defense – Russia ≠ Expansionist
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Impact Defense – Russia ≠ ExpansionistRussia is all talk – its military isn’t prepared for expansionism. Braithwaite 8 (Rodric, former British Ambassador to Russia, August-September, Survival, 50(40), p.174)JM So what about Russia as a global military threat? Putin has gone some way towards reviving the demoralised remnants of the Soviet armed forces. But Russia still spends less than one-twenty-fifth of what America spends on defence. Russian published figures for defence expenditure are opaque,4 but the Russian government has repeatedly stated that it will not allow defence expenditure to drag down the economy as it did in the Soviet period. This is one lesson Russia’s leaders really do seem to have learned from the past.5 Lucas reluctantly recognises this. ‘On the face of it’, he says, ‘Russia is still an intimidating military power. It has one of the world’s largest armies, excellent special forces and some remarkable modern weapons’ (p. 0*$). But he admits that Russia is still too poor and weak to do more than posture. ‘Russia [is not] a global adversary, despite its increasingly assertive presence on the international stage. Indeed, it often looks like a partner’ (p. #&). In a striking and apt phrase, he goes on: ‘[Russia] is too weak to have a truly effective independent foreign policy, but it is too disgruntled to have a sensible and constructive one’ (p. 0+$). But if this is so, what is all the fuss about? The narrow-minded scholarship of the negative’s disadvantage is akin to a fairy tale – view it as suspect. Mullerson 8 (Rein, prof of International Law @ King's College, July 1, Chinese Journal of International Law, p.585-586)JM 7. I understand why many Russian leaders in the rich tapestry of Russian history, where there is indeed too much red, want to emphasize only glorious victories and see only wrongs done against Russia and not by her. For politicians, Book Reviews 585 and even more for military men, an attempt to see problems from all possible angles may indeed lead to a political or strategic paralysis. Hence, a black and white picture of the world and a vision based on the principle: those who are not with us are against us. However, I cannot comprehend how somebody educated at the London School of Economics and Political Science cannot be more sophisticated and open-minded. Why a writer, journalist and academic, whose task should be to come as close to the truth as possible, never hoping of course to reach it, has to straighten one’s narrative, makes it so monodimensional. I am afraid that it may be caused by a combination of three d’s: dislike, disappointment and dread. Dislike, because Russia has indeed too often behaved like a big bully; disappointment since notwithstanding ‘‘the 1990s promises’’ she still refuses to become a ‘‘normal’’ country; dread because suddenly this ‘‘abnormal’’ entity is once again, like Phoenix, rising from the ashes. There is no doubt that Edward Lucas knows a lot and the book is informative. However, this book also proves that knowing does not mean understanding and that prejudice does not derive only from ignorance, especially if knowledge is mixed with fear and loathing. Of course, fans of Tchaikovsky, Tolstoy, Dostoyevsky, Chekhov or Russian ballet may also extrapolate their admiration to all things Russian, closing eyes on negative aspects of Russia’s domestic and international politics. That is why any serious researcher needs to follow a recipe of Professor Karl Popper, who for many years taught at Edward Lucas’ alma mater: the surest test of any theory, vision or worldview is not trying to collect as many proofs of the point one holds dear (usually one can find a loads of them), but on the contrary, it is necessary to look for facts that would contradict your predilections, preconceived ideas and fears (often there are too many of those as well). Working with Russia as she is, not trying to isolate her or forcing her to become a ‘‘normal’’ State is the best way to not only avoid a new Cold War but also give democracy a better chance in Russia. One would be advised to approach Edward Lucas’ informative book as a shard of a broken mirror that shows Russia from a specific angle while other shards—other writings—contribute to a fuller picture; the search for the unbroken mirror be better left for those who believe in fairy tales. Impact Defense – Russia ≠ ExpansionistRussia isn’t prepared for imperial conquest. Savodnik 8 (Peter, author and journalist, May 19, Time International, 171(20), EBSCO) JM It's premature to call the still-unfolding rivalry a cold war. No doubt, Russia and the West have divergent interests. According to the Russian worldview, everything good that happens in the West is bad for Russia. Worse yet, Moscow seems willing to do almost anything to achieve great-power (if not superpower) status. Still, we're far from a Manichaean showdown. Russia is too weak to wage a cold war. Outside Moscow, St. Petersburg and a handful of other cities, most Russians live in Khrushchev- and Brezhnev-era hovels. The economy is diversifying but not diversified; for now, the oil and gas markets largely decide how much money flows into the Kremlin coffers. And the military is a wreck; Lucas points out, for instance, that the navy now has just 20 seaworthy surface ships. Most importantly, Russia lacks a clear political identity. Beyond its economic and strategic concerns, Russia doesn't know what it wants to be. This is an ideological, even ontological lassitude. The reason the postcommunist world is so unstable is not that Russia is on the verge of repatriating old turf. It's that Russia is navigating between two ideas of Russia: its former Soviet self and its current shadow of that former self--a cartoonish, hopelessly upside-down mythology versus a dispiriting reality. Russia will not transcend this dichotomy until it begins building a truly original future instead of trying to cobble together a distant past. Lucas is right that the West should set aside its differences and resist Russian aggression. But we should be clear about the nature of this aggression. The new cold war, thankfully, has yet to break out. 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