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- Peace Process causes terrorism and Civil War
A2: Peace ProcessPeace process is all talk and no action. Schmidt July 8 (Christophe, writer for AFP, AFP, July 8 2010, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hhYvXu-9gjp-ZKdtcaj91sYtsTOQ) EH WASHINGTON — A resumption of long-stalled direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians could be on the horizon, but swift progress towards sealing a peace deal remains a long way off, analysts say. After months of US-hosted proximity talks which have seen US envoy George Mitchell shuttling between the two sides, direct talks are likely to resume "within the next two months," said former US diplomat Aaron David Miller. But, he cautioned: "It's not a blessing, because direct negotiations will only reveal how large the gaps are between the two sides." Hopes of new talks have been spurred by the visit to the United States this week of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who emerged from White House talks with US President Barack Obama pledging he wanted a deal. Obama said he hoped direct talks would start before an Israeli freeze on settlement building in Arab east Jerusalem expires on September 25. Netanyahu said there were concrete measures the Israelis were willing to make to pave the way, but he has not yet promised to extend the freeze. "Unlike any previous government" he had decided "to freeze the construction in new settlements for a 10-month period to encourage the Palestinians to enter peace talks," Netanyahu said Thursday in a speech to a US think-tank. "We should not waste any more time," he added. In an interview with CNN, the Israeli premier also renewed a call for Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas to enter negotiations "right now, we don't need any pretext or precondition." The United States and Jordan both voiced hope Thursday that Israelis and Palestinians would start direct negotiations soon. "We both believe that moving to direct talks as soon as possible is in the best interest of Israelis, Palestinians, the region and the world," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said alongside Jordan's Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh. "If the Obama administration wants direct talks, he probably will get them," agreed Nathan Brown, a Middle East expert with the Carnegie Institute. "The larger question is what will happen in those talks." "There is no indication that the fundamental conditions working against a negotiated two state solution right now -- the opposition of the Israeli government and the impotence of the Palestinian government -- has changed." Jordan's Judeh said he believed the signs emerging from the proximity talks "seem to be encouraging." "But I think what we need to refrain from now is unilateral action and provocation, whether it is in the form of deportations or evictions or demolitions," he said referring to the settlement constructions. The White House meeting this week -- which took place in a warmer atmosphere than Netanyahu's frosty visit to the US earlier this year -- was seen as a major step towards kickstarting direct talks. It was "critical for trying to coordinate how to avert there being a September crisis, and a September breakdown in negotiations," said Robert Danin, former Jerusalem bureau chief for the Middle East Quartet. September is set to be a key month in the stagnant peace process. Abbas is due to report to the Arab League on the results of the proximity talks. And the Quartet -- comprised of the European Union, Russia, the United Nations and the United States -- will meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly to discuss the peace process. Many thorny issues remain unresolved, despite decades of negotiations. Chief among them are the right of return for Palestinian refugees left homeless after the creation of Israel in 1948, and the final status of the holy city of Jerusalem claimed by both as their capital. To reach a deal, both sides will need to make significant compromises on long entrenched positions which are likely to prove unpopular among their people. "I don't believe Israelis and Palestinians are prepared to pay the price," said Miller, adding a resumption of direct talks would "put the Palestinians in a very difficult position." "Even if the settlements moratorium continues, Israelis will be doing other things on the ground in East Jerusalem that will likely embarrass Mahmud Abbas," he said. And he warned the peace process is likely to bedevil the US administration in the same way that a long trail of broken deals has frustrated successive American presidents. "If the direct talks don't produce, it's going to mean that the administration will be expected to save the peace process," Miller said. Peace Process causes terrorism and Civil WarThe Peace Process would allow terrorist infiltration of the West Bank, which causes terrorist attacks on Israel, collapse of the Palestinian State, and a Civil War in Jordan Gold 10 (Dore, former Prime Minister of Israel's Foreign Policy Adviser and later as Ambassador to the United Nations, Dore Gold, 3-20-2010, http://www.dore-gold.com/2010/03/what-happened-to-the-jordan-valley.php) CM IT IS now well-understood by the Israeli public that the most crucial error of disengagement was abandoning the Philadelphi Corridor between the Gaza Strip and Egyptian Sinai, which allowed Hamas to build a vast tunnel network, with minimal Israeli countermeasures, and smuggle a huge arsenal into the Gaza Strip. From 2005, when Israel left Gaza, to 2006, the rate of rocket fire increased by 500%. New weapons, like Grad missiles, were fired for the first time at Ashkelon after the pullout. It does not require much imagination to understand what would happen in Judea and Samaria if Israel left the Jordan Valley - which should be seen as the Philadelphi Corridor of the West Bank. For example, up until now, Israel has not had to deal with SA-7 shoulder-fired rockets that could be aimed at aircraft over Ben-Gurion Airport, because it is difficult to smuggle them into the West Bank as long as the area is blocked by the IDF in the Jordan Valley. Nor has Israel had to face Islamist volunteers who reinforce Hamas and could prolong a future war, like those who joined the jihad in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen or Somalia, because Israel can deny them access to the West Bank. In fact, in its annual survey for 2009, the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) noted that while there has been a decrease in the terrorist threat to Israel, the only exception to this positive trend is the increasing involvement of global jihadi groups, who at present are building up a presence in the Gaza Strip. Clearly they would be in the West Bank if they could get there. The fact of the matter is that if Israel withdrew from the Jordan Valley and it became known among the global jihadi groups that the doors to the West Bank were open, the scale of the threat would change and the Jordanians would find it difficult to effectively halt the stream of manpower and weaponry into their territory. Clearly Jordan itself would be destabilized by this development. This is exactly what happened in 2005 when al-Qaida in Iraq set up an infrastructure in Jordan and attacked hotels and government buildings. This is also what happened during Black September in 1970, when the Jordanian army had to confront a massive Palestinian military presence and a civil war ensued. Besides, should Jordan have a common border with a Palestinian state, Palestinian irredentism toward the East Bank would undoubtedly increase. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 1.62 Mb. Share with your friends:
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