Annex I. Annex II.INTRODUCTION
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This paper analyzes key factors contributing to regional instability and vulnerability in the Horn of Africa (HoA) and proposes steps to address them. Despite the past and ongoing diplomatic, security, and development efforts of multiple stakeholders, the Horn sub-region remains vulnerable. All parties—countries and development partners alike—increasingly recognize that national programs alone are not sufficient to mitigate the sub-region’s vulnerability. This understanding has led to a growing program of regional activities under the leadership of Heads of State within the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a robust response to the region’s 2011 famine crisis by multiple parties, and growing regional collaboration and support on security and development issues. The central rationale for the initiative set out in this paper is that we cannot eliminate extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity in the Horn without engaging more intensively and creatively in addressing very difficult development problems. These problems are regional in nature and therefore require regional solutions.
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For the purposes of this initiative, the Horn of Africa refers to Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda1 (see Figure 1). With a total area of around 5.2 million square kilometers, the HoA includes some of the largest and the smallest countries in Africa. There is sound logic in looking at regional instability and vulnerability in these countries as a group. Despite the region’s diversity, its problems are interlinked: events in one country affect others, and the problems of one can often be solved only with the involvement of others. Indeed, for any of the countries, social, economic, and political development can only be achieved in a climate of enhanced security and stability for all. Given the different stages of development of these countries and their relationships with international and regional partners, the initiative will be rolled out programmatically at the country level, as and when an appropriate environment exists.
Annex III.1.1. Wide Range of Development Needs
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In the HoA, a complex set of historical, ideological, political, social, economic, humanitarian, geographical, territorial, and environmental factors have created tensions within and between states. One result has been interstate, intrastate, and inter-communal conflicts. At present, the region is affected by four main ongoing conflicts: internal conflict in Somalia and the military intervention of its neighbors; the sensitive separation of South Sudan from Sudan; the unresolved dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea; and most recently, the internal conflict in South Sudan. However, no individual state in the HoA has been insulated from one or more of these conflicts, irrespective of their distance and comparative strengths or weaknesses. This is particularly true of instability in border areas—drivers of conflict and fragility transcend political borders, and weakly governed areas provide refuge for criminal activity.2
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Wars and famines have triggered major displacements of people, both within countries and across borders, so that the concentration of refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs) in the Horn is among the highest in the world. The region has generated over 2.7 million refugees and hosts over 2 million of them (see Table 1)—and many of them have experienced prolonged displacement, often lasting for decades. There are also over 6 million IDPs in the region. Host countries may not have incentives and resources to address refugees’ needs, and tensions may arise between refugees and host communities over land, natural resources, and livelihood opportunities.
Figure 1. Regional Area Map of the Horn of Africa
Table 1. Displaced Population in the Horn of Africa
Country
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Refugees by origin
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IDPs
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Refugees hosted
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Djibouti
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1,168
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0
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23,810
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Eritrea
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338,060
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10,000
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3,169
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Ethiopia
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125,779
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316,090
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629,718a
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Kenya
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10,745
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412,000b
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550,587a
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Somalia
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967,038h
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1,106,000c
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12,301f
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South Sudan
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595,913i
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1,400,000d
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244,805f
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Sudan
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678,036
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2,890,000e
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170,665
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Uganda
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11,764
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29,776
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388,950g
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Total
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2,728,503
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6,163,866
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2,024,005
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Sources: All data UNHCR 2013 except where otherwise noted.
a July 2014; b January 2013; c March 2014; d September 2014; in addition, there are 20,000 IDPs in Abyei; e June 2014; f October 2014; g June 2014; h September 2014; i October 2014.
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The region is going through substantial demographic changes. While infant and under-five mortality rates have declined over the past two decades, fertility rates have remained high and will continue to be the main driver of population growth. The total population of the eight HoA countries, about 43 million in 1950, has grown to 225 million in 2010 and is projected to reach 258 million by 2015.3 In many countries the median age is as young as 16 years, and it is estimated that in 2020 there could be 60.5 million young people aged 15-24 years in the eight countries in the Horn. The population dynamics imply that these countries will continue to face such challenges as keeping pace with critical investments in health and education, creating jobs, eradicating malnutrition, and reducing poverty and vulnerability.
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Much of the Horn’s population remains vulnerable to shocks from environmental degradation, harsh climate, and growing food insecurity. The frequency and severity of drought are likely to increase as a result of climate-related change, exacerbating such factors as poverty, degraded ecosystems, uncoordinated water resource management, conflict, and ineffective governance.
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