8. Calculate the Benefit-Cost Ratio for installing UP devices progressively to the whole fleet through new registrations for each device effectiveness scenario.
Two methods were used.
(a). Fleet registration and crash profile
Establish a general profile of the vehicle fleet made up of, for any given year of vehicle age up to 20 years old, the number of new registrations as a proportion of the cumulative fleet over the entire period, divided in to the number of fatal or injury crashes as a proportion of the cumulative number of fatal or injury crashes over the same period,
For any given year after year zero (first registration), reduce the proportions by the generic time discount factor of (1 + d)n,
Add the proportions up for each year that the safety device of interest has been fitted,
Multiply the final result by the estimated net saving in injuries established at point 7,
Calculate the cost to fit the safety device of interest to newly registered vehicles,
Calculate the Net Present Values of the benefits and costs.
Calculate the Benefit-Cost Ratios.
Scenario A0
Rigid Trucks
|
Front
|
|
Side
|
|
Rear
|
Period
|
Rate
|
Multiplier
|
PV Benefits
|
Cost
|
BCR
|
|
PV Benefits
|
Cost
|
BCR
|
|
PV Benefits
|
Cost
|
BCR
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10
|
4%
|
0.4190
|
$10,020,559
|
$4,266,944
|
2.348
|
|
$2,014,855
|
$6,140,292
|
0.328
|
|
$1,215,888
|
$7,496,245
|
0.1622
|
10
|
5%
|
0.4000
|
$9,566,236
|
$4,266,944
|
2.242
|
|
$1,923,503
|
$6,140,292
|
0.313
|
|
$1,160,761
|
$7,496,245
|
0.1548
|
10
|
6%
|
0.3823
|
$9,143,998
|
$4,266,944
|
2.143
|
|
$1,838,603
|
$6,140,292
|
0.299
|
|
$1,109,527
|
$7,496,245
|
0.1480
|
10
|
7%
|
0.3659
|
$8,751,078
|
$4,266,944
|
2.051
|
|
$1,759,598
|
$6,140,292
|
0.287
|
|
$1,061,850
|
$7,496,245
|
0.1417
|
10
|
12%
|
0.2988
|
$7,146,901
|
$4,266,944
|
1.675
|
|
$1,437,042
|
$6,140,292
|
0.234
|
|
$867,200
|
$7,496,245
|
0.1157
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15
|
4%
|
0.5769
|
$13,798,050
|
$4,266,944
|
3.234
|
|
$2,774,403
|
$6,140,292
|
0.452
|
|
$1,674,247
|
$7,496,245
|
0.2233
|
15
|
5%
|
0.5396
|
$12,905,965
|
$4,266,944
|
3.025
|
|
$2,595,030
|
$6,140,292
|
0.423
|
|
$1,566,002
|
$7,496,245
|
0.2089
|
15
|
6%
|
0.5059
|
$12,100,674
|
$4,266,944
|
2.836
|
|
$2,433,108
|
$6,140,292
|
0.396
|
|
$1,468,288
|
$7,496,245
|
0.1959
|
15
|
7%
|
0.4755
|
$11,372,089
|
$4,266,944
|
2.665
|
|
$2,286,610
|
$6,140,292
|
0.372
|
|
$1,379,882
|
$7,496,245
|
0.1841
|
15
|
12%
|
0.3600
|
$8,609,060
|
$4,266,944
|
2.018
|
|
$1,731,042
|
$6,140,292
|
0.282
|
|
$1,044,618
|
$7,496,245
|
0.1394
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20
|
4%
|
0.6593
|
$15,769,620
|
$4,266,944
|
3.696
|
|
$3,170,831
|
$6,140,292
|
0.516
|
|
$1,913,476
|
$7,496,245
|
0.2553
|
20
|
5%
|
0.6093
|
$14,572,500
|
$4,266,944
|
3.415
|
|
$2,930,123
|
$6,140,292
|
0.477
|
|
$1,768,218
|
$7,496,245
|
0.2359
|
20
|
6%
|
0.5649
|
$13,511,849
|
$4,266,944
|
3.167
|
|
$2,716,856
|
$6,140,292
|
0.442
|
|
$1,639,519
|
$7,496,245
|
0.2187
|
20
|
7%
|
0.5255
|
$12,569,095
|
$4,266,944
|
2.946
|
|
$2,527,294
|
$6,140,292
|
0.412
|
|
$1,525,126
|
$7,496,245
|
0.2035
|
20
|
12%
|
0.3825
|
$9,147,823
|
$4,266,944
|
2.144
|
|
$1,839,372
|
$6,140,292
|
0.300
|
|
$1,109,991
|
$7,496,245
|
0.1481
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
25
|
4%
|
0.6829
|
$16,333,898
|
$4,266,944
|
3.828
|
|
$3,284,291
|
$6,140,292
|
0.535
|
|
$1,981,945
|
$7,496,245
|
0.2644
|
25
|
5%
|
0.6283
|
$15,027,776
|
$4,266,944
|
3.522
|
|
$3,021,667
|
$6,140,292
|
0.492
|
|
$1,823,461
|
$7,496,245
|
0.2432
|
25
|
6%
|
0.5803
|
$13,879,989
|
$4,266,944
|
3.253
|
|
$2,790,879
|
$6,140,292
|
0.455
|
|
$1,684,189
|
$7,496,245
|
0.2247
|
25
|
7%
|
0.5380
|
$12,867,419
|
$4,266,944
|
3.016
|
|
$2,587,279
|
$6,140,292
|
0.421
|
|
$1,561,324
|
$7,496,245
|
0.2083
|
25
|
12%
|
0.3870
|
$9,255,341
|
$4,266,944
|
2.169
|
|
$1,860,991
|
$6,140,292
|
0.303
|
|
$1,123,037
|
$7,496,245
|
0.1498
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Articulated Trucks
|
Front
|
|
Side
|
|
Rear
|
Period
|
Rate
|
Multiplier
|
PV Benefits
|
Cost
|
BCR
|
|
PV Benefits
|
Cost
|
BCR
|
|
PV Benefits
|
Cost
|
BCR
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10
|
4%
|
0.4190
|
$14,737,216
|
$1,035,584
|
14.231
|
|
$2,345,901
|
$2,494,539
|
0.940
|
|
$1,213,424
|
$1,819,333
|
0.6670
|
10
|
5%
|
0.4000
|
$14,069,044
|
$1,035,584
|
13.586
|
|
$2,239,540
|
$2,494,539
|
0.898
|
|
$1,158,409
|
$1,819,333
|
0.6367
|
10
|
6%
|
0.3823
|
$13,448,060
|
$1,035,584
|
12.986
|
|
$2,140,690
|
$2,494,539
|
0.858
|
|
$1,107,279
|
$1,819,333
|
0.6086
|
10
|
7%
|
0.3659
|
$12,870,193
|
$1,035,584
|
12.428
|
|
$2,048,704
|
$2,494,539
|
0.821
|
|
$1,059,698
|
$1,819,333
|
0.5825
|
10
|
12%
|
0.2988
|
$10,510,933
|
$1,035,584
|
10.150
|
|
$1,673,152
|
$2,494,539
|
0.671
|
|
$865,443
|
$1,819,333
|
0.4757
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15
|
4%
|
0.5769
|
$20,292,765
|
$1,035,584
|
19.595
|
|
$3,230,245
|
$2,494,539
|
1.295
|
|
$1,670,854
|
$1,819,333
|
0.9184
|
15
|
5%
|
0.5396
|
$18,980,778
|
$1,035,584
|
18.329
|
|
$3,021,400
|
$2,494,539
|
1.211
|
|
$1,562,828
|
$1,819,333
|
0.8590
|
15
|
6%
|
0.5059
|
$17,796,438
|
$1,035,584
|
17.185
|
|
$2,832,874
|
$2,494,539
|
1.136
|
|
$1,465,313
|
$1,819,333
|
0.8054
|
15
|
7%
|
0.4755
|
$16,724,909
|
$1,035,584
|
16.150
|
|
$2,662,306
|
$2,494,539
|
1.067
|
|
$1,377,086
|
$1,819,333
|
0.7569
|
15
|
12%
|
0.3600
|
$12,661,327
|
$1,035,584
|
12.226
|
|
$2,015,456
|
$2,494,539
|
0.808
|
|
$1,042,501
|
$1,819,333
|
0.5730
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20
|
4%
|
0.6593
|
$23,192,348
|
$1,035,584
|
22.395
|
|
$3,691,806
|
$2,494,539
|
1.480
|
|
$1,909,598
|
$1,819,333
|
1.0496
|
20
|
5%
|
0.6093
|
$21,431,747
|
$1,035,584
|
20.695
|
|
$3,411,550
|
$2,494,539
|
1.368
|
|
$1,764,635
|
$1,819,333
|
0.9699
|
20
|
6%
|
0.5649
|
$19,871,849
|
$1,035,584
|
19.189
|
|
$3,163,242
|
$2,494,539
|
1.268
|
|
$1,636,197
|
$1,819,333
|
0.8993
|
20
|
7%
|
0.5255
|
$18,485,343
|
$1,035,584
|
17.850
|
|
$2,942,535
|
$2,494,539
|
1.180
|
|
$1,522,035
|
$1,819,333
|
0.8366
|
20
|
12%
|
0.3825
|
$13,453,685
|
$1,035,584
|
12.991
|
|
$2,141,586
|
$2,494,539
|
0.859
|
|
$1,107,742
|
$1,819,333
|
0.6089
|
25
|
4%
|
0.6829
|
$24,022,232
|
$1,035,584
|
23.197
|
|
$3,823,909
|
$2,494,539
|
1.533
|
|
$1,977,929
|
$1,819,333
|
1.0872
|
25
|
5%
|
0.6283
|
$22,101,321
|
$1,035,584
|
21.342
|
|
$3,518,134
|
$2,494,539
|
1.410
|
|
$1,819,766
|
$1,819,333
|
1.0002
|
25
|
6%
|
0.5803
|
$20,413,272
|
$1,035,584
|
19.712
|
|
$3,249,427
|
$2,494,539
|
1.303
|
|
$1,680,776
|
$1,819,333
|
0.9238
|
25
|
7%
|
0.5380
|
$18,924,087
|
$1,035,584
|
18.274
|
|
$3,012,376
|
$2,494,539
|
1.208
|
|
$1,558,161
|
$1,819,333
|
0.8564
|
25
|
12%
|
0.3870
|
$13,611,812
|
$1,035,584
|
13.144
|
|
$2,166,757
|
$2,494,539
|
0.869
|
|
$1,120,762
|
$1,819,333
|
0.6160
|
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