Endi 2011 / Daniel/Jason/Kevin/Marc/MiHe/Parth/Simrun
U – Unpredictable Weather Coming
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U – Unpredictable Weather ComingUnpredictable weather now – monsoons, tornadoes, wildfires Payson Roundup 6/21 – (Pete Aleshire, “Still-rising average temperatures fuel deadly, unpredictable weather,” June 21, 2011, http://www.paysonroundup.com/news/2011/jun/21/still-rising-average-temperatures-fuel-deadly-unpr/) mihe Arizona catches fire. The drought returns. The monsoons flicker. The streams dwindle. The spring goes bone dry. Tornadoes touch down on the Rim. A rush of new climate studies suggest that the steady rise of global temperatures has already ushered in dramatic and unpredictable weather patterns — inflicting a sputtering drought in the Southwest at the same time it floods the Mississippi and sends tornadoes rampaging across the Midwest. The early onset of the fire season this year underscores the point, with half the normal rainfall since January — despite some big winter storms that left a deeper-than-normal snowpack on the Rim. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences concluded that “Climate change is occurring, is very likely caused primarily by the emission of greenhouse gases from human activities, and poses significant risks for a range of human and natural systems.” Most climate experts agree that average global temperatures have risen by 2 degrees in the past 50 years and rainfall has increased by 5 percent. The number and intensity of most major weather systems has risen with the increased energy pumped into the atmosphere by that rise in temperature. However, the attempt to link that broad average temperature rise with particular weather patterns and regional predictions has yielded mixed results — and revealed the complexity of the feedback systems that either muffle or magnify the effects of global warming. However, the evidence now suggests the Southwest will likely suffer a big rise in fires and tree-killing insect infestations in coming decades, according to a study published recently in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Forests in the Southwest have proven especially vulnerable to climate shifts, because the trees are often living at the edge of their tolerance. The researchers analyzed the results of 1,000 different tree ring studies and concluded that 18 percent of the forests in the Southwest have suffered severe damage from fires or bark beetles in the past 20 years. Rising temperatures will likely intensify the effects of the well-known El Niño pattern in the Pacific, which triggers droughts and flooding world-wide as a result of the warming of surface temperatures, according to the study of tree ring growth patterns going back 1,100 years published in May in Nature Climate Change. The researchers found that the rainfall-related width of tree rings in the Southwest agreed perfectly with other records showing the waxing and waning of the El Niño ocean temperatures. Moreover, the temperature-related variations in certain isotopes in corals in the central Pacific also matched the tree ring testimony in the Southwest. The researchers concluded that ocean temperatures in the Pacific have long gone through warm and cool phases that can last 50 to 90 years and have a big impact on global weather patterns. Unfortunately, scientists haven’t yet come up with reliable and consistent climate models that would allow them to predict how a rise in average global temperatures will affect those cycles. A different set of studies have come to a similar conclusion about a less-well-known water temperature cycle in the Atlantic Ocean, which scientists call the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. Another tree ring study linked the periodic rise in surface temperatures in the western Atlantic with a sharp increase in wildfire in the Southwest over a 500-year period. The researchers discovered that the western Atlantic shifts has warm and cool periods that last for 60 to 80 years at a time. The researchers analyzed nearly 34,000 fire scars dating back five centuries to reach that conclusion. Generally, as the western Atlantic warms, the number of extended droughts and massive wildfires increases throughout the Southwest. The researchers noted that the western Atlantic appears to have entered just such a warming period, which will likely be exacerbated as global temperatures rise. The researchers noted that such major climate shifts have a far larger impact on forest fires than shifts in forest management strategies. IL – EconomyPolar Orbiting Satellites key to prepare for deadly weather Universe Today 6/15 – (Tammy Plotner, “Can We Put Weather on a Budget?” June 15, 2011, http://www.universetoday.com/86711/can-we-put-weather-on-a-budget/) mihe When Vanguard 2 was launched on February 17, 1959 it became our first orbiting “eye” on Earth’s weather. Although the satellite was unsuccessful in the long run, it paved the way for TIROS-1 about a year later. This in turn opened the avenue for the Nimbus program – the forerunner for today’s NASA and NOAA’s space-based weather observatories. Although our current climate spectators have proven to be not only efficacious, but enduring, the recent economy may spell an end to future pursuits. With what appears to be crazy changes to our weather in recent times, they may not produce opportunities for climatologists to take advantage of data produced by satellite imaging. However, leaders in all fields of study are emphasizing the importance of continuing the weather satellite programs. “The stakes are high and the challenge is great,” said Earth Science Director Michael Freilich, at a briefing at the Forum on Earth Observation. The importance of weather prediction affects our world population in more ways than just grabbing an umbrella or getting out your winter coat. Radical ramifications can disrupt logistics and threaten lives. This realization has prompted support from everyone from US President Obama to National Weather Service director Jack Hayes As the director explained, the “what if” synopsis could be very ugly when it comes to above average snowfall, powerful hurricanes or deadly tornadoes. The geostationary satellites portray global weather from a high level standpoint – but the lower, polar orbiters collect far more detailed data in a three to five day window that’s needed to make forecasting by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration possible. Polar Orbiting Satellites key to predict severe weather and help economy MarketWatch 7/7 – (MarketWatch, “NOAA Deputy Administrator Tells Local Leaders Satellite Programs Key to Saving Lives, Lessening Economic Impact of Severe Weather,” July 7, 2011, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/noaa-deputy-administrator-tells-local-leaders-satellite-programs-key-to-saving-lives-lessening-economic-impact-of-severe-weather-2011-07-07?reflink=MW_news_stmp) mihe Dr. Kathryn Sullivan addressed Brevard County leaders and first responders during meeting at Harris Corporation Thursday Stressed need for continued funding of advanced weather forecasting technology Harris is prime contractor for faster, higher-resolution ground segment of next-generation NOAA weather system Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction, and deputy administrator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), today emphasized the vital role played by the agency's satellite programs in providing timely weather data that can save lives during severe weather. Sullivan addressed a luncheon gathering of area leaders and first responders co-sponsored by the Economic Development Commission of Florida's Space Coast (EDC) and Harris Corporation HRS +0.89% . The meeting was held at the Harris Customer Briefing Center in Melbourne. A recording of the webcast may be viewed at http://www.yottastream.com/harris/ . "Our polar and geostationary satellites are the backbone of the nation's weather enterprise," said Sullivan. "It is critical that we keep NOAA's weather programs funded, even in this tight fiscal environment." Among the programs she discussed is the next generation of NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). Today's GOES satellites are a significant tool used by NOAA to detect and track hurricanes, thunderstorms, tornadoes and other severe weather in the continental U.S. and western hemisphere. The next generation of this program, the GOES Series-R (GOES-R), is expected to significantly speed severe weather prediction and warnings by processing and delivering 40 times more data than is possible today to NOAA's National Weather Service and more than 10,000 direct users. GOES-R also will vastly improve image resolution and increase the rate of imagery coverage of Earth's surfaces from every 30 minutes to every five minutes in normal conditions -- and every 30 seconds during severe weather events. In addition, the GOES-R system will provide a new capability for continuous monitoring of total lightning activity, which provides early indication of storm intensification and severe weather events, including improved tornado warning lead time. The first launch of a GOES-R series satellite is scheduled for 2015. Harris is the prime contractor for the ground segment of GOES-R, a 10-year contract with a potential value of $736 million. More than 380 people from Harris and its subcontractors work on the GOES-R program nationwide, with nearly 240 of those people directly employed by Harris and based in the Melbourne-area. The ground segment encompasses receiving and processing of satellite data, generating and distributing products from satellite data, and command and control of operational satellites. "GOES-R will give National Weather Service forecasters and government agencies an unprecedented edge when dealing with severe weather conditions," said Sheldon Fox, group president, Harris Government Communications Systems. "We have seen first-hand in recent years the devastating impact of severe weather in many parts of our nation, and here in Florida we are just one month into the Atlantic hurricane season. It is clear that the continued development of advanced forecasting technology is essential to saving lives and lessening the economic impact of destructive weather." Harris is a recognized leader in satellite ground data processing and mission command-and-control systems. The company's ground data processing systems consist of complex suites of hardware and software that receive sensor data from satellites, turning it into useable information. The company's command-and-control systems feature commercial-off-the-shelf design and high levels of flexibility. Designed for government and commercial applications, they support single-satellite missions, as well as some of the largest and most complex satellite fleets deployed today. Polar Orbiting Satellite Program key to Business competition and accurate weather forecasts Locke 10 – Secretary of Department of Commerce (Gary Locke, Department of Commerce, “Opening Statement by Secretary Locke,” http://purl.access.gpo.gov/GPO/LPS126092) mihe Secretary LOCKE. Well, thank you very much, Chairman Mollohan and Ranking Member Congressman Wolf. I am pleased to join you to talk about the President’s budget for the Department of Commerce for fiscal year 2011. With the 2010 census field operations ending this year, the President’s $8.9 billion request decreases overall spending from fiscal year 2010, but funds targeted increases for vital economic activities. Because in these challenging times, the central mission of the Commerce Department is very clear and straightforward, helping American businesses become more competitive so they put more people back to work. I want to highlight four areas where the Commerce Department’s efforts described in the 2011 budget are integral to that goal of putting more people back to work. First, businesses use our unparalleled statistical and technical research to develop new products, identify new markets and make long-term investments. For instance, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, or NIST, provides metrics that enable development of everything from a National Smart Grid, advance manufacturing processes, to airport screening devices and new cyber security measures. NIST also provides consulting services to American manufacturers to become more efficient and profitable so that they become more viable and competitive in a global economy. Increasingly, businesses are turning to NOAA for its unmatched weather and climate observations, and much of NOAA’s 2011 budget increase will finance its added responsibilities to implement the long called for restructuring of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System, commonly known as NPOESS. This effort will help us better meet civil and military weather forecasts, storm tracking and climate monitoring requirements. And at a time when both businesses and the President have called for more accurate and readily available climate information, the fiscal year 2011 budget assigns additional responsibilities NOAA’s proposed new Climate Service Office which is the result of a proposed budget-neutral reorganization to bring together its observational and analytical resources, now scattered throughout NOAA, all under one roof. A second key function of the Commerce Department is overseeing the patent protection that has incentivized American inventors and entrepreneurs for over 200 years. When I came to the Department of Commerce, the Patent and Trademark Office had a backlog of almost 800,000 patent applications and a waiting period of over 3 years just to receive a yes or no on a proposed patent. We have already taken important steps to fix these problems, knowing that every patent application waiting in line could be a new product not going to market and a new job not being created. 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