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Results over the years

5.3.1 Results over the years - ATP and WTA tournaments


After looking at the difference between men and women in the previous section, this section will show results over the last 5 years separately.

Table 9: Results of all ATP and WTA tournaments sorted by year (2009-2013)




 

 

 

2009

 

 




 

2010

 

 




 

2011

 

 

Category

Proba-bility

 

Number of games

Mean return category

Standard deviation

T-test




Number of games

Mean return category

Standard deviation

T-test




Number of games

Mean return category

Standard deviation

T-test

1

1-5%




11

-1,000

0,000

0,000




5

-1,000

0,000

0,000




24

-1,000

0,000

0,000

2

5-10%




191

-0,315

2,850

-1,525




166

-0,779

1,642

-6,112




187

-0,627

2,066

-4,147

3

10-15%




282

-0,276

2,193

-2,110




242

-0,225

2,364

-1,481




264

-0,387

2,162

-2,905

4

15-20%




319

-0,052

2,137

-0,432




277

-0,248

1,958

-2,109




306

-0,042

2,154

-0,345

5

20-25%




392

-0,183

1,728

-2,099




421

-0,107

1,781

-1,236




387

-0,187

1,722

-2,132

6

25-30%




412

-0,231

1,490

-3,153




442

-0,147

1,542

-2,008




434

-0,150

1,547

-2,022

7

30-35%




389

-0,057

1,425

-0,785




468

-0,168

1,367

-2,653




495

-0,199

1,352

-3,274

8

35-40%




444

-0,124

1,254

-2,090




469

-0,112

1,261

-1,923




504

-0,051

1,281

-0,894

9

40-45%




472

-0,058

1,155

-1,087




483

-0,065

1,154

-1,230




480

-0,098

1,146

-1,880

10

45-50%




490

-0,015

1,058

-0,320




449

-0,097

1,046

-1,970




446

-0,059

1,055

-1,187

11

50-55%




385

-0,049

0,955

-1,014




399

-0,084

0,954

-1,751




325

-0,107

0,949

-2,038

12

55-60%




474

-0,130

0,867

-3,270




427

-0,037

0,864

-0,889




422

-0,014

0,860

-0,345

13

60-65%




530

-0,047

0,786

-1,378




529

-0,037

0,783

-1,076




486

-0,041

0,783

-1,151

14

65-70%




441

-0,042

0,706

-1,259




456

-0,042

0,706

-1,274




515

-0,070

0,715

-2,211

15

70-75%




408

-0,033

0,633

-1,043




475

-0,028

0,630

-0,961




489

-0,004

0,619

-0,159

16

75-80%




401

-0,003

0,545

-0,126




438

-0,016

0,554

-0,590




447

-0,003

0,546

-0,123

17

80-85%




424

-0,007

0,469

-0,290




415

-0,040

0,495

-1,662




398

-0,027

0,485

-1,123

18

85-90%




296

-0,066

0,442

-2,567




309

-0,011

0,393

-0,486




302

-0,024

0,404

-1,036

19

90-95%




352

-0,044

0,353

-2,359




293

-0,044

0,353

-2,134




314

-0,039

0,347

-2,016

20

95-100%




215

-0,016

0,218

-1,062




209

-0,004

0,186

-0,342




237

0,002

0,162

0,176

Total

 

 

7.328

-2,748

21,264




 

7.372

-3,291

20,032




 

7.462

-3,129

20,357









 

 

 

2012

 

 




 

2013

 

 

Category

Proba-bility

 

Number of games

Mean return category

Standard deviation

T-test




Number of games

Mean return category

Standard deviation

T-test

1

1-5%




43

-0,485

3,380

-0,942




39

0,090

4,754

0,118

2

5-10%




264

-0,448

2,580

-2,823




226

-0,330

2,911

-1,706

3

10-15%




256

-0,387

2,130

-2,914




230

-0,463

2,057

-3,410

4

15-20%




304

-0,314

1,880

-2,915




312

-0,197

2,021

-1,721

5

20-25%




393

-0,037

1,830

-0,405




387

-0,307

1,608

-3,759

6

25-30%




395

-0,234

1,480

-3,152




400

-0,134

1,556

-1,725

7

30-35%




478

0,010

1,450

0,158




478

-0,139

1,383

-2,193

8

35-40%




480

-0,099

1,260

-1,722




495

0,028

1,305

0,478

9

40-45%




491

-0,184

1,120

-3,636




517

-0,024

1,164

-0,462

10

45-50%




415

-0,050

1,060

-0,955




500

0,010

1,058

0,220

11

50-55%




342

0,000

0,960

0,004




340

-0,079

0,956

-1,527

12

55-60%




402

-0,101

0,870

-2,336




480

-0,104

0,868

-2,628

13

60-65%




517

0,016

0,770

0,484




544

-0,064

0,790

-1,902

14

65-70%




491

-0,014

0,700

-0,447




483

-0,108

0,723

-3,277

15

70-75%




465

-0,099

0,660

-3,258




487

-0,019

0,627

-0,681

16

75-80%




404

-0,029

0,560

-1,055




397

-0,026

0,559

-0,910

17

80-85%




417

-0,038

0,490

-1,580




409

0,008

0,455

0,375

18

85-90%




274

-0,003

0,380

-0,131




301

-0,010

0,394

-0,452

19

90-95%




323

-0,009

0,310

-0,534




279

-0,008

0,305

-0,417

20

95-100%




320

-0,013

0,200

-1,168




280

-0,027

0,232

-1,966

Total

 

 

7.474

-2,518

24,070




 

7.584

-1,902

25,727



In the tables above, the pattern of the less negative return in the higher categories and the higher negative return in the lower categories still emerges.


Graph 3: Development of the mean return of ATP and WTA tournaments in the last 5 years (2009-2013)

Graph 3 shows the line of the mean returns per year. It is hard to see which favorite longshot bias is the strongest, but in every year there the line goes upwards.


In category 1 in 2013 there is a positive return of €0,090. In this category there are 39 matches and one match is won by an underdog which gives a high return and therefore the mean return is positive. Also category 8, 10 and 17 of 2013 matches will give you a positive return.
The favorite longshot bias is based on underdogs and favorites, which means we have to look at category 1 (underdogs) and category 20 (favorites). In table 10 a quick overview of the returns is added. In every year, except of 2013, the return in category 20 is higher than in category 1. Based on these facts, you might be able to conclude that, a favorite longshot bias exists in every year, except of 2013.

Table 10: Mean return in category 1-7 and 15-20 over the years

Year

Mean return category 1-7

Mean return category 15-20

2009

-0,178

-0,027

2010

-0,221

-0,025

2011

-0,235

-0,015

2012

-0,204

-0,231

2013

-0,037

-0,014

Looking at table 10, we see that for every year the underdog categories generate a lower mean return than the favorite categories, except of 2012. Based on those numbers, you might be able to conclude that, a favorite longshot bias exists in every year, except of 2012.


It is hard to look if the trend is becoming stronger over the years. If you look at the categories 1-7 the return gets lower till 2011 and from there the return gets higher. In the favorite categories the return till 2011 becomes higher, but in 2012 there is a very low result of -0,231. The results are not showing a clear trend over the years.
If we compare the t-values in the years with the t-values of section 5.1 and 5.2, we see a lot more insignificant results. Because of those insignificant t-values (-2 < t < 2) we can doubt about the existence of a favorite longshot bias. It is interesting to test the ATP and WTA tournaments separately, because this might lead better t-values. With better t-values the doubt about the existence of a favorite longshot bias could disappear. In 5.3.2 we test the data over the years for ATP and WTA tournaments separately.




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