2013
|
Proba-bility
|
Number of Games
|
Mean return categorie
|
Standard deviation
|
T-test
|
Category
|
1
|
1-5%
|
26
|
0,635
|
5,781
|
0,000
|
2
|
5-10%
|
151
|
-0,222
|
2,983
|
-0,913
|
3
|
10-15%
|
159
|
-0,381
|
2,193
|
-2,190
|
4
|
15-20%
|
197
|
-0,200
|
2,021
|
-1,390
|
5
|
20-25%
|
254
|
-0,278
|
1,629
|
-2,721
|
6
|
25-30%
|
250
|
-0,209
|
1,513
|
-2,182
|
7
|
30-35%
|
309
|
-0,097
|
1,402
|
-1,218
|
8
|
35-40%
|
346
|
0,024
|
1,307
|
0,337
|
9
|
40-45%
|
332
|
-0,049
|
1,159
|
-0,772
|
10
|
45-50%
|
333
|
0,034
|
1,059
|
0,594
|
11
|
50-55%
|
232
|
-0,059
|
0,960
|
-0,944
|
12
|
55-60%
|
316
|
-0,138
|
0,869
|
-2,824
|
13
|
60-65%
|
368
|
-0,056
|
0,789
|
-1,364
|
14
|
65-70%
|
314
|
-0,107
|
0,723
|
-2,622
|
15
|
70-75%
|
333
|
-0,037
|
0,636
|
-1,071
|
16
|
75-80%
|
246
|
0,010
|
0,537
|
0,298
|
17
|
80-85%
|
263
|
-0,013
|
0,474
|
-0,440
|
18
|
85-90%
|
199
|
-0,003
|
0,388
|
-0,121
|
19
|
90-95%
|
184
|
-0,015
|
0,316
|
-0,654
|
20
|
95-100%
|
192
|
-0,042
|
0,259
|
-2,244
|
|
|
5.004
|
|
|
|
Table 12: Results of all WTA tournaments sorted by year (2009-2013)
2009
|
Proba-bility
|
Number of games
|
Mean return categorie
|
Standard deviation
|
T-test
|
|
2010
|
Proba-bility
|
Number of games
|
Mean return categorie
|
Standard deviation
|
T-test
|
Category
|
|
Category
|
1
|
1-5%
|
0
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
|
1
|
1-5%
|
2
|
-1,000
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
2
|
5-10%
|
56
|
-0,372
|
2,709
|
-1,027
|
|
2
|
5-10%
|
47
|
-1,000
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
3
|
10-15%
|
100
|
-0,123
|
2,392
|
-0,513
|
|
3
|
10-15%
|
101
|
-0,006
|
2,628
|
-0,024
|
4
|
15-20%
|
122
|
0,282
|
2,428
|
1,283
|
|
4
|
15-20%
|
115
|
-0,466
|
1,656
|
-3,015
|
5
|
20-25%
|
157
|
-0,188
|
1,715
|
-1,372
|
|
5
|
20-25%
|
183
|
-0,068
|
1,800
|
-0,512
|
6
|
25-30%
|
156
|
-0,017
|
1,628
|
-0,129
|
|
6
|
25-30%
|
169
|
-0,164
|
1,534
|
-1,389
|
7
|
30-35%
|
130
|
-0,157
|
1,368
|
-1,312
|
|
7
|
30-35%
|
163
|
-0,065
|
1,412
|
-0,585
|
8
|
35-40%
|
149
|
-0,123
|
1,259
|
-1,188
|
|
8
|
35-40%
|
161
|
-0,059
|
1,276
|
-0,589
|
9
|
40-45%
|
163
|
-0,161
|
1,134
|
-1,807
|
|
9
|
40-45%
|
160
|
-0,085
|
1,155
|
-0,932
|
10
|
45-50%
|
167
|
-0,048
|
1,058
|
-0,584
|
|
10
|
45-50%
|
164
|
-0,152
|
1,038
|
-1,870
|
11
|
50-55%
|
142
|
-0,061
|
0,956
|
-0,766
|
|
11
|
50-55%
|
151
|
-0,109
|
0,950
|
-1,405
|
12
|
55-60%
|
174
|
-0,113
|
0,870
|
-1,708
|
|
12
|
55-60%
|
163
|
0,000
|
0,860
|
0,004
|
13
|
60-65%
|
166
|
0,038
|
0,763
|
0,636
|
|
13
|
60-65%
|
175
|
0,004
|
0,775
|
0,074
|
14
|
65-70%
|
156
|
-0,024
|
0,703
|
-0,435
|
|
14
|
65-70%
|
163
|
-0,059
|
0,711
|
-1,067
|
15
|
70-75%
|
142
|
-0,048
|
0,640
|
-0,899
|
|
15
|
70-75%
|
155
|
-0,093
|
0,656
|
-1,760
|
16
|
75-80%
|
139
|
-0,042
|
0,569
|
-0,868
|
|
16
|
75-80%
|
167
|
-0,001
|
0,544
|
-0,017
|
17
|
80-85%
|
175
|
-0,022
|
0,482
|
-0,593
|
|
17
|
80-85%
|
179
|
-0,059
|
0,507
|
-1,549
|
18
|
85-90%
|
112
|
-0,081
|
0,457
|
-1,866
|
|
18
|
85-90%
|
124
|
-0,013
|
0,396
|
-0,352
|
19
|
90-95%
|
124
|
-0,105
|
0,418
|
-2,799
|
|
19
|
90-95%
|
122
|
-0,021
|
0,325
|
-0,701
|
20
|
95-100%
|
66
|
-0,011
|
0,218
|
-0,407
|
|
20
|
95-100%
|
64
|
-0,015
|
0,221
|
-0,527
|
|
|
2.596
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.728
|
|
|
|
2011
|
Proba-bility
|
Number of Games
|
Mean return categorie
|
Standard deviation
|
T-test
|
|
2012
|
Proba-bility
|
Number of Games
|
Mean return categorie
|
Standard deviation
|
T-test
|
Category
|
|
Category
|
1
|
1-5%
|
0
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
|
1
|
1-5%
|
2
|
-1,000
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
2
|
5-10%
|
61
|
-0,458
|
2,404
|
-1,488
|
|
2
|
5-10%
|
103
|
-0,890
|
1,115
|
-8,099
|
3
|
10-15%
|
99
|
-0,434
|
2,070
|
-2,088
|
|
3
|
10-15%
|
91
|
-0,209
|
2,425
|
-0,821
|
4
|
15-20%
|
112
|
-0,061
|
2,165
|
-0,299
|
|
4
|
15-20%
|
103
|
-0,045
|
2,168
|
-0,211
|
5
|
20-25%
|
138
|
-0,039
|
1,833
|
-0,249
|
|
5
|
20-25%
|
150
|
0,000
|
1,857
|
0,000
|
6
|
25-30%
|
161
|
0,046
|
1,662
|
0,349
|
|
6
|
25-30%
|
141
|
-0,259
|
1,463
|
-2,101
|
7
|
30-35%
|
173
|
-0,127
|
1,395
|
-1,199
|
|
7
|
30-35%
|
164
|
0,150
|
1,501
|
1,282
|
8
|
35-40%
|
160
|
-0,032
|
1,289
|
-0,311
|
|
8
|
35-40%
|
172
|
-0,179
|
1,235
|
-1,901
|
9
|
40-45%
|
160
|
-0,162
|
1,132
|
-1,807
|
|
9
|
40-45%
|
161
|
-0,184
|
1,121
|
-2,086
|
10
|
45-50%
|
141
|
-0,039
|
1,059
|
-0,433
|
|
10
|
45-50%
|
139
|
-0,101
|
1,052
|
-1,131
|
11
|
50-55%
|
125
|
-0,128
|
0,942
|
-1,516
|
|
11
|
50-55%
|
119
|
-0,002
|
0,962
|
-0,025
|
12
|
55-60%
|
132
|
0,037
|
0,853
|
0,502
|
|
12
|
55-60%
|
132
|
-0,108
|
0,870
|
-1,422
|
13
|
60-65%
|
166
|
-0,011
|
0,776
|
-0,179
|
|
13
|
60-65%
|
176
|
0,018
|
0,773
|
0,316
|
14
|
65-70%
|
166
|
-0,082
|
0,721
|
-1,458
|
|
14
|
65-70%
|
179
|
0,040
|
0,677
|
0,786
|
15
|
70-75%
|
160
|
-0,034
|
0,634
|
-0,684
|
|
15
|
70-75%
|
160
|
-0,157
|
0,673
|
-2,941
|
16
|
75-80%
|
165
|
-0,066
|
0,583
|
-1,445
|
|
16
|
75-80%
|
142
|
-0,015
|
0,555
|
-0,333
|
17
|
80-85%
|
139
|
-0,092
|
0,529
|
-2,056
|
|
17
|
80-85%
|
154
|
-0,045
|
0,501
|
-1,125
|
18
|
85-90%
|
112
|
-0,011
|
0,391
|
-0,285
|
|
18
|
85-90%
|
94
|
-0,038
|
0,422
|
-0,883
|
19
|
90-95%
|
120
|
-0,034
|
0,338
|
-1,111
|
|
19
|
90-95%
|
118
|
-0,034
|
0,342
|
-1,080
|
20
|
95-100%
|
68
|
-0,013
|
0,214
|
-0,499
|
|
20
|
95-100%
|
106
|
0,022
|
0,101
|
2,192
|
|
|
2558
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2606
|
|
|
|
2013
|
Proba-bility
|
Number of Games
|
Mean return categorie
|
Standard deviation
|
T-test
|
Category
|
1
|
1-5%
|
13
|
-1,000
|
0,000
|
0,000
|
2
|
5-10%
|
75
|
-0,549
|
2,765
|
-1,720
|
3
|
10-15%
|
71
|
-0,646
|
1,716
|
-3,172
|
4
|
15-20%
|
115
|
-0,191
|
2,031
|
-1,010
|
5
|
20-25%
|
133
|
-0,363
|
1,571
|
-2,662
|
6
|
25-30%
|
150
|
-0,010
|
1,622
|
-0,075
|
7
|
30-35%
|
169
|
-0,215
|
1,350
|
-2,068
|
8
|
35-40%
|
149
|
0,038
|
1,306
|
0,358
|
9
|
40-45%
|
185
|
0,022
|
1,175
|
0,253
|
10
|
45-50%
|
167
|
-0,038
|
1,057
|
-0,459
|
11
|
50-55%
|
108
|
-0,121
|
0,951
|
-1,327
|
12
|
55-60%
|
164
|
-0,039
|
0,864
|
-0,573
|
13
|
60-65%
|
176
|
-0,082
|
0,794
|
-1,367
|
14
|
65-70%
|
169
|
-0,109
|
0,725
|
-1,960
|
15
|
70-75%
|
154
|
0,020
|
0,606
|
0,401
|
16
|
75-80%
|
151
|
-0,084
|
0,590
|
-1,744
|
17
|
80-85%
|
146
|
0,047
|
0,419
|
1,349
|
18
|
85-90%
|
102
|
-0,024
|
0,408
|
-0,590
|
19
|
90-95%
|
95
|
0,007
|
0,286
|
0,240
|
20
|
95-100%
|
88
|
0,005
|
0,155
|
0,290
|
|
|
2.580
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
In tables 13 and 14 below the mean return in the underdog categories (1-7) and in the favorite categories (15-20) are given. In every year you see that the return on favorites is higher than on underdogs, which can be an indication for a favorite longshot bias.
Table 13: Mean return in category 1-7 and 15-20 over the years at ATP tournaments
Year
|
Mean return category 1-7
|
Mean return category 15-20
|
2009
|
-0,238
|
-0,012
|
2010
|
-0,236
|
-0,018
|
2011
|
-0,292
|
0,001
|
2012
|
-0,223
|
-0,030
|
2013
|
-0,200
|
-0,017
|
Table 14: Mean return in category 1-7 and 15-20 over the years at WTA tournaments
Year
|
Mean return category 1-7
|
Mean return category 15-20
|
2009
|
-0,071
|
-0,052
|
2010
|
-0,197
|
-0,037
|
2011
|
-0,131
|
-0,046
|
2012
|
-0,171
|
-0,051
|
2013
|
-0,287
|
-0,006
|
As said in section 5.3.1 we wanted to test the results over the years for ATP and WTA tournaments separately, with the goal of getting more t-values that are significant. Looking at the t-values in table 11 and 12, we see that they are actually becoming more insignificant.
When testing the ATP and WTA tournaments separately, the results becoming more insignificant. When we put all the data together, the results are looking fine and significant, but when we split them apart, the results show a whole other point of view. This is not in line with the literature of Forrest & Mchale, 2007 and Cain et al, 2003.
Only in 2011 at ATP tournaments, we see significant t-values. Also, table 13 shows a higher return at favorites than underdogs in 2011 ATP tournaments. Based on those results we can say that there is a favorite longshot bias in 2011 ATP tournaments.
Share with your friends: |
