February 2009 prem 4 Africa Region
Medium-Term Baseline Scenario
Download 3.98 Mb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- The growth forecast is designed to test the robustness of the conclusions of this DSA
Medium-Term Baseline Scenario The long-term macroeconomic scenario is projected to revolve over the next 20 years around two axes: economic transformation toward a service-based economy, and accumulation of international reserves and government deposits at the BCV. The growth forecast is designed to test the robustness of the conclusions of this DSA. Because of the financial and commodity price shocks in 2008, short-term growth was revised downward and inflation upward compared to the previous DSA (Table 3). For the outer years, the previous assumptions are maintained: real GDP is expected to grow by 5 percent in the long term (5 to 20 years), which is a prudent 2 percentage points below the historical average (1 standard deviation). Growth will be driven by the transformation into a service-exporting economy, financed mostly by FDI. Moreover, the projections do not consider the growth-promoting effect of public investment in infrastructure. 
T   he economic transformation is marked by an increase in imports and service exports and by a decrease in reliance on remittances and other current transfers. Cape Verde is expected to break its past dependence on aid and remittances as it continues to transform itself into a self-propelled economy. While the fuel and food shock increased the import bill in 2008, the restraint in recurrent expenditures created fiscal space that has enabled the government to expand social transfers to protect the vulnerable without putting pressure on the balance of payments. As a result, foreign reserves will stay above 3 months of imports and continue to grow through the forecast horizon. FDI will drive and finance the current account deficit and keep debt-generating flows close to balance. The debt-generating inflows needed to finance the current account deficit are likely to be largely unaffected if FDI is below baseline projections owing to the self stabilizing dynamics of the current account relative to FDI (imports would decline in tandem with FDI thanks to its high import content). Despite a possible deceleration caused by global financial turmoil, the prospects for FDI inflows in the medium term continue to be bright. New commitments approved by the Investment Promoting Agency support the expectation that the private investments will materialize.
Directory: curated curated -> Concept stage curated -> Concept stage curated -> Republic of Côte d'Ivoire Urbanization Review curated -> Report No: aus11011 Central America curated -> Report No. 94474-pk fiscal Disaster Risk Assessment Options for Consideration curated -> Environmental and Social Management Framework for the Costa Rica Telecommunications Sector Modernization Project curated -> Environment Impact Assessment For Jiangxi Shangrao Sanqingshan Airport Beijing Guohuantiandi Environmental Technology Development Center. Ltd. Oct. 2012 Content curated -> Growth through Innovation An Industrial Strategy for Shanghai By Shahid Yusuf Kaoru Nabeshima April 22nd, 2009 curated -> Report No: 70178. People's Republic of China Download 3.98 Mb. Share with your friends:
|