Floods – From Risk to Opportunity

Creating new opportunities by integrating water safety and spatial planning

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• Flash flood retention in headwater areas of the Natzschung River using small retarding basins JENS BÖLSCHER, ACHIM SCHULTE, CHRISTIAN REINHARDT ROBERT WENZEL
• The variability of ENSO and predictability of seasonal flooding: evidence from the Pacific Islands and Bangladesh MD. RASHED CHOWDHURY 1,2
• Urban flooding management using the natural drainage system case study: Tehran, capital of Iran M. Ghahroudi Tali M. A. Nezammahalleh
• Multi-agent based flood evacuation simulation models considering the effect of congestion and obstructions on the pathway K. Hanajima
• Research on rainstorm-induced flood risk assessment in China based on 1 km grid data DAPENG hUANG
• Flood risk management in a cold climate – experience in Norway LINMEI NIE 1
• Performance of artificial wetland in removing contaminants from storm water under tropical climate
• B ed variation analysis using the sediment transport formula considering the effect of river width
• , KAZUNORI OKABE
• Dealing with disasters: developing an integrated regional resilience strategy YAZMIN SEDA-SANABRIA 1 , ENRIQUE MATHEU 2 ROBERT STEPHAN 3
• P rediction of potential outburst floods from a glacial lake due to moraine dam failure BADRI BHAKTA SHRESTHA

Creating new opportunities by integrating water safety and spatial planning Ellen Tromp1 & f. H. M. van de Ven1,2 1 Deltares, PO Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands ellen.tromp@deltares.nl 2 Delft University of Technology, Department of Water Management, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN, Delft, The Netherlands Abstract The Netherlands is world renowned for its continuous battle against water. In the last decades more and more buildings have been built, leaving little space for the water. In order to be able to anticipate climate change and to ensure that water aspects are incorporated into spatial plans, the WaterCheck has been designed. So in the last decades, the role and importance of water has been incorporated into spatial planning in the Netherlands. In this paper more information regarding the new opportunities for integrating water safety and spatial planning in relation to flood risk management are explored, possibilities for temporary use of land, multifunctional flood defences and the role of knowledge in decision-making process are explored. Water managers are currently adjusting their various roles in spatial planning in the Netherlands and across Europe. Moreover, an overview of relevant Dutch policy is provided. Key words flood management; flood risk; spatial planning; integrated assessment framework; water governance -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 153-165 Flash flood retention in headwater areas of the Natzschung River using small retarding basins JENS BÖLSCHER, ACHIM SCHULTE, CHRISTIAN REINHARDT & ROBERT WENZEL Institute of Geographical Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin, Malteserstraße 74-100, D-12249 Berlin, Germany jebo@zedat.fu-berlin.de Abstract The concept of decentralised flood protection measures is based on the idea to localize and use the natural capability of a catchment to retard runoff as early as possible and at several places at the same time by means of a combination of different small-scale measures. Because common flood protection management mostly focuses on the downstream catchment regions, the question arises if for headwater areas any opportunities exist to mitigate flash floods. The headwater areas of the Ore Mountains in Germany are often one agent triggering flash floods in downstream valleys. Against the background of severe damages caused by flash floods in the past, the hydrological effect of small retarding basins on flood generation was analysed for the case study of the Natzschung River. The modelled scenarios indicate that the use of small basins has a distinct and local impact on the reduction and time shift of peak discharge. Key words decentralised flood protection; flash flood retention; retarding basin; Ore Mountains, Germany; rainfall–runoff model -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 166-173 The variability of ENSO and predictability of seasonal flooding: evidence from the Pacific Islands and Bangladesh MD. RASHED CHOWDHURY1,2 1 Principal Research Scientist, Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC), Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (JIMAR), University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA 2 Cooperating Graduate Faculty, Urban and Regional Planning, University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA rashed@hawaii.edu Abstract This study is an overview of the science of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and its correlation with local climate data (i.e. sea level, floods) on seasonal time scales in different ENSO-sensitive geographic regions. The objective is to visit some “hotspots” of climate hazards (i.e. US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) and Bangladesh) and emphasize the role of an ENSO-based operational framework for forecasting, warning and response opportunities. Findings reveal that the sea level variability in the USAPI region (henceforth, USAPI) and flooding in Bangladesh are sensitive to ENSO. In the USAPI, the variability of sea level and consequential flooding is correlated to tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) with lead times of approximately several seasons or so. Similarly, the seasonal flooding in Bangladesh is also correlated to Pacific SSTs with lead times of several months or so. The ENSO-based seasonal forecasts in the USAPI and Bangladesh have been found to be a skilful application for research and outreach. Currently, the operational climate forecasting and warning response scheme in the USAPI region is fully instrumental. The success of the forecast method in the USAPI can be applied as a model to other similar climate sensitive regions. Currently ENSO-based seasonal forecasts are just beginning in Bangladesh; however, like the USAPI region, Bangladesh can benefit by developing potential prediction schemes utilizing ENSO and local climate data. Key words ENSO; sea level; flooding; Pacific Islands; Bangladesh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 174-180 Urban flooding management using the natural drainage system case study: Tehran, capital of Iran M. Ghahroudi Tali & M. A. Nezammahalleh Physical Geography Department, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran m-ghahroudi@sbu.ac.ir Abstract The natural drainage system could be used for management of urban flooding in Tehran City, the capital of Iran. Disregarding the natural drainage networks during urban development has caused flooding issues in this city. The purpose of the study is to find the areas where watercourses are incompetent for flood control. The HydroModel tool was applied to “burn” the digital elevation model (DEM) through flood collection network using Agree DEM in ArcGIS. The runoff coefficient and Curve Number (CN) derived from land-use data were used to calculate surface runoff with the SCS Model. The distance between the natural network and current one was calculated with the Near Function. The results indicate that the maximum distance between the natural drainage system and the flood collection network is where flows divert towards the east and west. These effects are greater in the north due to steep slopes and higher runoff, and in the south and centre due to covered canals and the sewage system. Key words natural drainage; Tehran, Iran; flood; urban runoff collection network -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 181-189 Multi-agent based flood evacuation simulation models considering the effect of congestion and obstructions on the pathway K. Hanajima1, M. Nakashima2, T. Hori3 & D. Nohara3 1 Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, 611-0011 Kyoto, Japan hanajima.kengo.27a@st.kyoto-u.ac.jp 2 Faculty of Engineering, Kyoto University, 611-0011 Kyoto, Japan 3 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, 611-0011 Kyoto, Japan Abstract In flood hazardous situations the effect of congestion and obstructions on people’s walking speed may be crucial in the evacuation process, especially in urbanized areas. In order to simulate these situations, node and arc expression of the street network is not enough because this kind of one dimensional expression cannot deal with the actions of passing and avoiding the other evacuees. In this study, two types of evacuation simulation models, which express the streets as a sequence of rectangles, were developed and tested. One uses the experimental relation between crowd density and walking speed. The other uses rule-based collision-avoiding actions of evacuees. The performances of those two models have been compared in several simulation results in actual flood-plain areas in Japan. Key words flood evacuation; evacuation route congestion; flood hazard map; multi-agent systems; urban flood -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 190-197 Research on rainstorm-induced flood risk assessment in China based on 1 km grid data DAPENG hUANG, RENHE ZHANG, zHIGUO HUO, FEI MAO & YOUHAO E. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 46 Zhong-Guan-Cun South Avenue, 100081, Beijing, China huozhigg@cams.cma.gov.cn Abstract Hazard degree of rainstorm, elevation, variation of topography, and river and lake were calculated at a scale of 1 km grid based on the 1961–2008 daily precipitation data from 560 meteorological stations in China, SRTM 90 m elevation data and 1:1 000 000 vector data of river and lake. Then rainstorm-induced flood hazard in China was assessed with weighted sum method. Degree of vulnerability of cropland area percentage, population density and GDP density at the 1 km grid scale were calculated by using 1 km grid land-use data, 1 km grid population data and 1 km grid GDP data. Then rainstorm-induced flood vulnerability in China was assessed with weighted sum method. Finally, 1 km grid rainstorm-induced flood risk in China was assessed with the risk assessment model of “Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability”. Rainstorm-induced flood risk assessment in China based on 1 km grid data can overcome the limitation of homogenized socio-economic factors in the same administrative unit, which existed in previous researches on flood risk assessment, and reveals the spatial pattern of flood risk in more detail. Key words rainstorm-induced flood risk; flood hazard; flood vulnerability; 1 km grid data; China -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 198-207 Flood risk management in a cold climate – experience in Norway LINMEI NIE1, LARS A. ROALD2, SOFIE MELLEGÅRD1 & ČEDO MAKSIMOVIĆ3 1 SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, Forskningsveien 3B. PO Box 124 Blindern, 0314 Oslo, Norway linmei.nie@sintef.no 2 Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, PO Box 5091, Majorstua, 0301 Oslo, Norway 3 Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK Abstract Studies of historical large floods in Norway show that the major triggering factors of floods are rainfall and combinations of rainfall with snowmelt, avalanche or ice run. Because of its geographical location, different regions in Norway have a cold or mild climate, or both; precipitation may come alternatively as rainfall or snowfall. Most rivers have two or more flood seasons. Spring floods are the results of snowmelt, often in combination with rainfall; while autumn floods are due to intense rainfalls or storms. Because of the variation of precipitation with temperature and snowmelt water, impacts of climate change on floods are extremely sensitive in cold climates. Comparing the existing common flood risk management approach with the specific problems in the cold climate, and taking into account the emerging risk due to the dynamic changes in climate and in society and requirements for adaptation, this paper presents a comprehensive approach for flood risk management. Case studies in large river basins and urban catchments are presented to demonstrate the difference of changes and consequences in rural areas and urban catchments. Moreover, the need for new approaches, special models and tools to handle the problems and requirements for data with appropriate resolutions are addressed. Key words climate change; cold climate; flood risk management; snowmelt; adaptation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 208-216 Performance of artificial wetland in removing contaminants from storm water under tropical climate Mohd Noor Nur Asmaliza1, M. S. Lariyah2, A. Rozi3 & A. G. Aminuddin3 1 Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Lintasan Semarak, 26400 Bandar Tun Abdul Razak Jengka Pahang, Malaysia (formerly at REDAC Universiti Sains Malaysia Kampus Kejuruteraan Seri Ampangan) asmalizamn@gmail.com 2 Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Universiti Tenaga Nasional,, Km7, Jalan, UNITEN–IKRAM, 43009 Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia 3 River Engineering and Urban Drainage Research Centre (REDAC) Universiti Sains Malaysia Engineering Campus, Seri Ampangan, 14300 Nibong Tebal, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia Abstract Rapid growth has resulted in increased storm water flow into receiving waters, with increases in flooding through drainage of storm water runoff from urban areas to receiving water bodies. The design philosophy of the conventional storm water drainage system was based on solving localized floods, either by transferring excessive flow in drainage systems downstream by upgrading the drainage system, or relieving localized problems by constructing storm overflows. In response to these issues there are needs for a paradigm shift in the way storm water is managed. There are various Best Management Practices (BMPs) techniques which can be used to control storm water runoff to achieve the target for water quality index similar to that before the development started. The artificial wetland system is part of the sustainable urban drainage system and this system has a main function in water quality improvement. The objective of this study was to determine the removal efficiency of contaminants in urban storm water by a wetland constructed in the Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) Penang catchment. The result showed that the average removal efficiency of BOD was 9.7–80%, DO was 6.5–17.8%, turbidity was 25.9–30.0% and TP was 24–46%. In addition, strong positive correlations were found between water quality parameters at the inlet and water quality parameters at the outlet. However, a weak positive correlation between DO concentration at the inlet with BOD concentration at the inlet was identified throughout this study. Key words artificial wetland; water quality; removal efficiency; storm water; urban drainage -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 217-224 Bed variation analysis using the sediment transport formula considering the effect of river width and cross-sectional form in the Ishikari River mouth SEIJI OKAMURA1, KAZUNORI OKABE2 & SHOJI FUKUOKA3 1 IDEA Consultants, Inc., 3-15-1, Komazawa, Setagaya-ku, Tokyo, Japan seijiokamura5@gmail.com 2 Hokkaido Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2-1-3, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan 3 Research and Development Initiative, Chuo University, 1-13-31214, Kasuga, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan Abstract For river management, it is important to estimate the sediment discharge rate and the degree of bed variations during floods. Many of the previous sediment transport formulae have been proposed based on results by experimental channels. Therefore, they cannot estimate well the sediment discharge rate in rivers because of the complicated channel shapes and bed forms. It is necessary to calculate the sediment discharge rate appropriately to improve the accuracy of bed variation analysis. Fukuoka (2010) thought that stable cross-sectional scales of alluvial rivers (such as width and depth) are determined by physical quantities which indicate characteristics of basins (such as discharge, river bed slope and river bed material). He then derived formulae between dimensionless quantities of width, depth and discharge using field observed data by dimensional analysis. Based on the above analysis, he also derived the bed load formula considering the effect of river width and cross-sectional form using field observed data. In this study, we develop a bed variation analysis with the Fukuoka’s bed load formula to calculate the 1981 flood of the Ishikari River that caused large bed scouring at the river mouth. We compare calculated results between the bed load formula of Fukuoka (2010) and the previous formulae of Ashida & Michiue (1972) and Sato et al. (1958) for the amount of bed load discharge rates during the flood and the bed forms after the flood. As a result, the cross-sectional bed forms at meandering channel are well reproduced when we use the bed load formulae of Fukuoka (2010) and Sato et al. (1958). This indicates that these bed load formulae can calculate the amount of bed load discharge rate appropriately in the case of the Ishikari River mouth. Key words Fukuoka’s bed load formula; bed variation analysis; Fukuoka’s equation; river mouth -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 225-240 Dealing with disasters: developing an integrated regional resilience strategy YAZMIN SEDA-SANABRIA1, ENRIQUE MATHEU2 & ROBERT STEPHAN3 1 National Program Manager, Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience Program, Office of Homeland Security, Directorate of Civil Works, US Army Corps of Engineers, Headquarters, Washington, DC 20314, USA yazmin.seda-sanabria@usace.army.mil 2 Chief, Chief, Critical Lifelines Branch, Sector Outreach and Programs Division, Office of Infrastructure Protection, National Protection and Programs Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC 20598, USA 3 Executive Vice President, CRA, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia 22302, USA Abstract Public-private partnerships can serve as an effective mechanism to collectively strengthen community disaster preparedness and critical infrastructure resilience. This process involves multiple intersecting elements, including Federal, State, regional, local, and private-sector stakeholders, each with unique operating conditions and risks within its own environment. The 2010 Dams Sector Exercise Series (DSES-10) represents an example of the type of public-private effort that can lead to enhanced resilience on a regional scale. This paper discusses the findings and outcomes resulting from the DSES-10 effort, including its capstone Regional Resilience Strategy. The strategy was designed to assist public and private stakeholders in the identification of integrated post-disaster recovery solutions with respect to a catastrophic flood event, prioritization of actions to improve regional disaster resilience, and development of sustainable public-private partnerships to enhance planning and multi-jurisdictional coordination in the context of a wide range of potential threats and hazards. Key words flood risk; critical infrastructure; resilience; DSES; dams -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 241-252 Prediction of potential outburst floods from a glacial lake due to moraine dam failure BADRI BHAKTA SHRESTHA1, HAJIME NAKAGAWA2, KENJI KAWAIKE2, YASUYUKI BABA3 & HAO ZHANG2 1 International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute, Minamihara 1-6, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8516, Japan babhash@gmail.com 2 Ujigawa Open Laboratory, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Shimomisu, Yoko-oji, Fushimi, Kyoto 612-8235, Japan 3 Shirahama Oceanographic Observatory, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, 2347-6, Katata, Shirahama, Nishimuro, Wakayama 649-2201, Japan Abstract Flood and sediment disasters are frequently caused by outbursts from glacial lakes in the Himalayas of South Asia and other glacier regions of the world. The resulting floods from the glacial lake outburst can cause catastrophic flooding in downstream areas, with serious damage to lives and property. Therefore, there is a pressing need to investigate the outburst of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. In this study, a numerical model was developed to compute the characteristics of glacial lake outburst due to moraine dam failure by seepage and water overtopping. To compute the pore-water pressure in the dam and slope stability of the dam, a seepage model and a slope stability model were incorporated into a numerical model of flow and dam surface erosion. The numerical model was verified with experimental results. The simulated results of the outburst discharge, variations of moisture inside the dam and failure surface of the dam were consistent with experimental results. Using the developed numerical model, the potential outburst floods from Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake in the Himalaya of Nepal were predicted with various multi-scenarios. 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