Florida commission on hurricane loss projection methodology


September 19 & October 15, 2001



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September 19 & October 15, 2001

September 18 & 19, 2002

August 21 & 22, 2003

October 6 & 7, 2004


September 14 & 15, 2005

August 17, 1999 August 17 & 18, 2006

September 14 & 15, 2000 September 20 & 21, 2007

September 19 & October 15, 2001 September 17 & 18, 2008

September 18 & 19, 2002 September 15 & 16, 2009.

August 21 & 22, 2003 October 19, 20 & November 16, 2011.



During the 2009 Legislative Session, CS/SB 1758 was passed and signed into law by the Governor. This legislation changed the requirement in s. 627.0628(3)(e), F.S., to adopt revisions to actuarial methods, principles, standards, models, and/or output ranges on an annual basis to “every odd year.” The standards were revised and adopted on October 19 & 20 and November 16, 2011. The Commission will again adopt revisions to the standards in 20112013.
CS/CS/CS/HB 1495 was also passed during the 2009 Legislative Session and signed into law by the Governor. This legislation added subsection (4) to s. 627.0628, F.S., requiring the Commission to “hold public meetings for the purpose of receiving testimony and data regarding the implementation of windstorm mitigation discounts, credits, other rate differentials, and appropriate reductions in deductibles pursuant to s. 627.0629.” The legislation further required the Commission is to “present a report by February 1, 2010, to the Governor, the Cabinet, the President of the Senate, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, including by February 1, 2010, on its recommendations onfor improving the process of assessing, determining, and applying windstorm mitigation discounts, credits, other rate differentials, and appropriate reductions in deductibles pursuant to s. 627.0629.”
The Commission held six public meetings for the purpose of receiving testimony and data regarding the implementation of windstorm mitigation discounts. The input and data received during the process, as well as other information gathered by the Commission, resulted in the Windstorm Mitigation Discounts Report. The report includes the Commission’s findings and recommendations designed to improve the mitigation discount process.

The Mission Statement
At the September 21, 1995, Commission meeting, the following mission statement was adopted:
The mission of the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology is to assess the efficacy of various methodologies which have the potential for improving the accuracy of projecting insured Florida losses resulting from hurricanes and to adopt findings regarding the accuracy or reliability of these methodologies for use in residential rate filings.
The mission statement closely tracks the statute and restates the critical aspects of the Commission’s work. Minor revisions to the mission statement were adopted on November 30, 1995, and can be found in the Principles section of this report.
The mission statement was revised again on September 15, 2009, to reflect the Commission’s role in reviewing models for their ability for projecting probable maximum loss levels. Thus, the

mission statement was modified, as follows:


The mission of the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology is to assess the effectiveness of various methodologies which have the potential for improving the accuracy of projecting insured Florida losses and probable maximum loss levels resulting from hurricanes and to adopt findings regarding the accuracy or reliability of these methodologies for use in residential rate filings and probable maximum loss calculations.

Overview
To date, the following models have been evaluated by the Commission against the standards for the applicable years listed below and were found acceptable.
Modeling Organization Standards
AIR Worldwide Corporation 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000,

2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009


Applied Research Associates, Inc. 1999, 2000,

2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009


E.W. Blanch Co. 1998, 1999, 2000
EQECAT, Inc. 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000,

2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009


Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009
Risk Management Solutions, Inc. 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000,

2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009


Tillinghast–Towers Perrin 1998

II. PRINCIPLES

PRINCIPLES

1. The mission of the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology is to assess the effectiveness of various methodologies which have the potential for improving the accuracy of projecting insured Florida losses and probable maximum loss levels resulting from hurricanes and to adopt findings regarding the accuracy or reliability of these methodologies for use in residential rate filings and probable maximum loss calculations. History-New 9/21/95, rev. 11/30/95, rev. 9/15/09
2. The Commission shall consider the costs and benefits associated with its review process, including costs and benefits to the State and its citizens, to the insurance industry, and to the modeling organizations. History-New 8/18/06
3. The general focus of the Commission shall be on those areas of modeling which produce the most variation in output results and have the most promise of improving the science of modeling. History-New 8/18/06
4. The Commission shall pursue and promote research opportunities from time to time when issues need resolution and such research would advance the science of modeling. History-New 8/18/06
5. All models or methods shall be theoretically sound. History-New 9/21/95, rev. 8/18/06
6. The Commission’s review process shall be active and designed to test model output for reasonableness and to test model assumptions. History-New 8/18/06
7. Models or methods shall not be biased in a way that overstates or understates results. History-New 9/21/95, rev. 8/18/06
8. All sensitive components of models or methods shall be identified. History-New 9/21/95, rev. 8/18/06
9. The trade secret aspects of models or methods being reviewed by the Commission shall be protected. History-New 11/30/95, rev. 5/20/96, rev. 9/14/05, rev. 8/18/06
10. Commission members shall have sufficient information concerning model assumptions and factors used in model development, whether trade secret or not, to make a finding about a model’s acceptability. History-New 8/18/06
11. The Commission’s review process of models or methods shall not restrict competition in the catastrophe modeling industry or thwart innovation in that industry. History-New 11/30/95, rev. 5/20/96, rev. 8/18/06
12. The Commission shall consider how advances in science or technology shall be incorporated in its revision of standards, and, where and when appropriate, develop new standards or revise existing standards to reflect these advances. History-New 8/18/06, rev. 9/16/09

13. The Commission shall consider how statutory changes shall be incorporated in its revision of standards, and, where and when appropriate, develop new standards or revise existing standards to reflect these statutory changes. History-New 8/18/06, rev. 9/16/09
14. The Commission’s review of models or methods for acceptability shall give priority to new standards and standards that have been modified. History-New 8/18/06, rev. 9/16/09
15. The output of models or methods shall be reasonable and the modeling organization shall demonstrate its reasonableness. History-New 9/21/95, rev. 8/22/03, rev. 8/18/06
16. All adoptions of findings and any other formal action taken by the Commission shall be made at a publicly-noticed meeting, by motion followed by a formal member by member roll call vote, all of which shall be transcribed by a court reporter, such transcription to be made a part of the official record of the proceedings of the Commission. The Commission shall not record a transcript for the portion of a Commission meeting where trade secrets used in the design and construction of the hurricane loss model are discussed. No official action or decision shall be made in a closed meeting. History-New 11/30/95, rev. 8/22/03, rev. 9/14/05, rev. 8/18/06, rev. 9/15/09
17. All findings adopted by the Commission are subject to revision at the discretion of the Commission. History-New 11/30/95
18. No model or method shall be determined to be acceptable by the Commission until it has been evaluated by the Commission in accordance with the process and procedures which the Commission considers appropriate for that model or method. History-New 11/30/95, rev. 5/20/96, rev. 8/18/06
19. The Commission’s determination of acceptability of a specific model or method does not constitute determination of acceptability of other versions or variations of that model or method; however, the Commission shall attempt to accommodate routine updating of acceptable models or methods. History-New 11/30/95, rev. 5/20/96, rev. 8/18/06
20. The Commission shall consider the educational needs of its members and from time to time implement educational programs that further Commission members’ understanding of the science of modeling. History-New 8/18/06

III. COMMISSION STRUCTURE
COMMISSION STRUCTURE



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