From the Director U. S. Army Capabilities Integration Center
-4. Future Wargaming and Experimentation
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6-4. Future Wargaming and Experimentationa. Future experiments will seek to inform estimates of the expected operational benefit for given CWMD task performance improvements to help set quantitative standards for enhanced task performance. Appropriate venues for such studies could include seminar experiments to collect professional military judgment, wargaming analysis, and others. Future studies also will assess whether a given level of performance improvement is technologically feasible or affordable in a given timeframe. Initial studies of technological and economic feasibility may use scientifically informed market-analysis-like assessments. b. As part of the literature search in future experiments and studies, there should be a broad effort to collect evidence to underpin estimates of assumed or required task performance standards. Examples of valid evidence could include operational lessons learned; analytic studies of operational and combat experience; data from field tests and exercises; results from modeling and simulation analysis; and documented, peer-reviewed logical analyses based on common perceptions and knowledge (professional military judgment). Chapter 7Risks and Mitigation7-1. CCP Key Assumptionsa. To produce TRADOC Pam 525-7-19, some assumptions about the future JOE, technology development influencing CWMD capabilities and GIG capabilities, the rate of progress in transforming the Army to an increasingly modular force, and several other areas were applied. The assumptions were necessary in order to provide a joint context and set of operational conditions in which to project and think about future CWMD missions and tasks. b. In making assumptions, five things are considered: (1) Is the assumption really required to enable the desired action? In this case, the desired action was developing future CWMD operations and developing an understanding of the capabilties that would be required to enable CWMD. (2) Does the assumption have to remain an assumption, that is, can more research tie it down to a fact? This assumption does not apply as TRADOC Pam 525-7-19 is about realities that may or may not be true in the future. (3) What is the relative confidence in the assumption? Certainly, the assumption should represent the most expected future reality. However, SMEs may have a level of confidence in the assumption that ranges from significant uncertainty to strong confidence. (4) How sensitive is the output (TRADOC Pam 525-7-19 contents) of the desired action to the assumption? If sensitivity to the assumption is very low, then the assumption is probably not a prerequisite to the desired action. (5) If the desired action is very sensitive to the assumption, and the confidence in the assumption is relatively low, then analysts should consider how the output of the desired action might change or might need to be changed if said assumption fails to hold true. Table 7-1 summarizes these assumptions. Table 7-1TRADOC Pam 525-7-19 DOD and national assumptions
Table 7-1 TRADOC Pam 525-7-19 DOD and national assumptions, continued
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