Gdi 2010 Energy Reform Politics da
A2: Warming- Defense- Warming Slow
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- A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But
- No impact to climate change – the rate of warming is slowing Science Daily May 5
- Runaway warming impossible—oceans prevent excess warming; no impact Junk Science 8
A2: Warming- Defense- Warming SlowGlobal warming slowing – not caused by fossil fuels- no impact Hansen 2k (James Hansen, et al, professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University, 8-29-2000, “ http://www.pnas.org/content/97/18/9875.full) ET A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties. No impact to climate change – the rate of warming is slowing Science Daily May 5 (Science Daily, May 5 8, “ To date climate change projections, as published in the last IPCC report, only considered changes in future atmospheric composition. This strategy is appropriate for long-term changes in climate such as predictions for the end of the century. However, in order to predict short-term developments over the next decade, models need additional information on natural climate variations, in particular associated with ocean currents. Lack of sufficient data has hampered such predictions in the past. Scientists at IFM-GEOMAR and from the MPI for Meteorology have developed a method to derive ocean currents from measurements of sea surface temperature (SST). The latter are available in good quality and global coverage at least for the past 50 years. With this additional information, natural decadal climate variations, which are superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, can be predicted. The improved predictions suggest that global warming will weaken slightly during the following 10 years. “Just to make things clear: we are not stating that anthropogenic climate change won’t be as bad as previously thought”, explains Prof. Mojib Latif from IFM-GEOMAR. “What we are saying is that on top of the warming trend there is a long-periodic oscillation that will probably lead to a to a lower temperature increase than we would expect from the current trend during the next years”, adds Latif. “That is like driving from the coast to a mountainous area and crossing some hills and valleys before you reach the top”, explains Dr. Johann Jungclaus from the MPI for Meteorology. “In some years trends of both phenomena, the anthropogenic climate change and the natural decadal variation will add leading to a much stronger temperature rise.” Runaway warming impossible—oceans prevent excess warming; no impact Junk Science 8(http://junkscience.com/Greenhouse/forcing.html) ET Additionally, this form introduces another layer of complexity, that of oceanic absorption. Bear in mind that every 10 meters of water column is equivalent to one entire atmosphere (10 cubic meters of water has a mass of 10,000 Kg), meaning that the oceans are an enormous heat sink. There is a theory that we can not find atmospheric warming because the oceans are absorbing it and 300 atmosphere's worth of oceans make the temperature change far too small to measure. Now, we have no specific problem with the possibility that Earth's warmth is distributed through the oceans as well as the atmosphere. Our response, however, remains the same. If additional or "excess" warmth is being spread over so many more atmospheres, at least atmosphere's worth of oceans, then we are looking at as little as one-third of one percent of estimated warming to achieve equilibrium temperature with enhanced greenhouse forcing. This would make the IPCC's touted 1.5-6 °C atmospheric warming an immeasurably small 0.005-0.02 °C for a doubling of pre-Industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide -- not a particularly worrisome prospect. So, recent data acquisition fails to show warming in the top 750 meters of the oceans (equivalent to 75 atmospheres) but there is a suggestion of warming in the deep ocean (below 1,000 meters, although historic data is sparse, to say the least -- the warming of so much of the ocean would be so small from enhanced greenhouse that the figures are of little relevance here). We are providing a field for you to select ocean depth to disperse additional forcing so you can see the effect ocean absorption has. As an exercise try maxing out the atmospheric carbon dioxide at 1200 ppmv (four times pre-IR levels) and share the additional Joules through the full allowable 3,000 meters of ocean depth and see that it would take more than 100 years to raise the temperature of the system just 1 °C. If the assertions that heat is being added to the system at the claimed rate but we can not detect it because it is being "hidden" by dispersal in the oceans then again we are unconcerned -- distributing the additional heat through so many more atmospheres' worth of heat sink makes mean warming trivial. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 0.59 Mb. Share with your friends:
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