Uniqueness (US-Turkey Relations Bad)

Uniqueness (US-Turkey Relations Bad)

“The growing schism between the West and the Islamic world is one of the primary challenges confronting American foreign and defense policymakers. As a consequence, the relationship between the United States and Turkey—a Western-oriented, democratizing Muslim country—is strategically more important than ever,” asserts a new Council on Foreign Relations Special Report. While Turkey has the potential to be an invaluable partner as Washington seeks to improve its standing in the Muslim world, U.S.-Turkey relations have been severely damaged by the war in Iraq. “Turks believe that the Bush administration committed two sins.” Before the war, “Washington dismissed Ankara’s warnings about the consequences of invading Iraq.” And now, “Turks believe the United States has not taken sufficient care to address Turkey’s security concerns” about the emergence of an independent Kurdistan, which could stoke nationalist sentiment among Turkey’s Kurdish minority. “Time is growing short to build new momentum in the U.S.-Turkey relationship. Over the course of the next two years, both countries will face a series of tough foreign policy questions concerning Iraq, Iran, the Middle East, and Cyprus just as politicians in both capitals are entering election cycles,” says the report, Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations

But NATO's post-Cold War struggles with cohesion are a result of far more than disagreement over tactical nuclear deployments. NATO has given Turkey plenty of reasons to doubt its members' commitment to Ankara on several recent occasions. For example, before both Iraq wars, some NATO members hesitated to provide Turkey with air defenses or to assist it with displaced persons who had fled into its territory. Moreover, Turkey, which values NATO as a direct connection to Washington, witnessed the United States completely ignore its vehement opposition to the most recent Iraq War. Additionally, Ankara is dismayed by the reluctance of some of its NATO allies to label the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which has caused violent chaos along the Turkish border, as a terrorist organization. Then there is the issue of Tehran's nuclear program, which seriously complicates any discussion of the United States removing its tactical nuclear weapons from Turkey. An Iranian nuclear capability could spark an arms race in the Middle East and bring about a "proliferation cascade," which could cause Turkey to reconsider its nuclear options--especially if the United States pulls its nuclear weapons from Incirlik. When asked directly about its response to an Iranian nuclear weapon, a high-ranking Foreign Ministry official said that Turkey would immediately arm itself with a bomb. This isn't Ankara's official policy, but it seems to indicate a general feeling among its leaders. Whether Turkey is primarily concerned about security or prestige, the bottom line is that it would not sit idly by as Iran established a regional hegemony.

Uniqueness (US-Turkey Relations Bad)

Turkey and U.S. divided over nuclear policy, Iran, Israel, and Iraq

Wagner 6/17/10 (Daniel, Managing Dir. of Country Risk Solutions, “Brazil and Turkey's Message,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-wagner/brazil-and-turkeys-messag_b_615848.html) BAF

Turkish public opinion is divided between pressuring the government to assert itself against Iran - which many see as a competitor to Turkey's own regional political and economic ambitions - and opposing Western influence and security alliances. With both Iran and Russia becoming increasingly aggressive in international relations, Turkey feels pressure to assert itself on the global stage. Given that France, the UK, Russia, and Israel already possess nuclear weapons, and with Iran on an obvious path in that direction, Ankara has made its ambition to obtain nuclear weapons clear in recent months through a lobbying effort in Western capitals. The U.S. is torn on one hand between succumbing to the seemingly legitimate defense-related requests of an important strategic ally and Iranian neighbor -- that can act as a counter-balance to a future nuclear armed Iran -- and on the other hand by promoting the nuclear proliferation it seeks to prevent. Just last year President Obama referred to the U.S. and Turkey's bilateral relationship as a "model partnership", but bilateral relations have been deteriorating since the Gulf War, when President Bush was unsuccessful in facilitating Turkish action against Iraq. Tension has risen for weeks between the two countries over the Iran issue and more recently the Turkish flotilla to Palestine. Turkey has expressed disappointment over Washington's failure to condemn Israel's attack on the flotilla. Anti-U.S. sentiment among the Turkish public is now comparable to that of Pakistan - not exactly what Washington would expect from a 60-year post-war alliance.

Uniqueness (Russia-Turkey Relations Good)

Russia and Turkey relations include multiple facets of engagement, and both countries are looking to increase their involvement with each other

Baku 10, (Dmitry Medvedev: “Russia-Turkey relations are very important for the solution of regional problems” [ 13 Jan 2010 15:55 ] http://en.apa.az/news.php?id=113843) WDK

The meeting was held in the Russian President’s residence in Barvikha. Medvedev said Russia-Turkey relations were developing. “These are indeed the relations of the strategic partners. Though last year was not so easy, it was a successful year for our relations. We developed our economic relations. Despite some delays, these relations are very important,” he said. Dmitry Medvedev said Russia and Turkey were implementing large projects especially in the field of energy, expressed his confidence that one more step would be taken to strengthen these relations during Erdogan’s visit. “This is very important for the solution of problems, including regional problems that we regularly discuss with you. Our countries are neighbors. The microclimate in the region depends on the proximity of our positions,” he said. Erdogan said the relations between the two countries had reached culmination. “Political, economic and defense cooperation is developing. As you have said, the energy is of great importance. We have model cooperation in this context. We believe that there are many opportunities in various spheres – not only in the field of natural gas, but also in the field of oil, we can improve our cooperation in these fields,” he said.

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