Guide to Electoral Reform


Tables Table 1. Conservative–Labour bias in the 2005 and 2010 elections



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Tables

Table 1. Conservative–Labour bias in the 2005 and 2010 elections




2005

2010

Total bias

Bias attributable to:



  • differences in average constituency electorates between countries

  • differences between constituency electorates within countries

  • differences in turnout between constituencies

  • differences in support for and seats won by other parties

  • the efficiency with which a party’s votes are spread across the country

112


  • 6

  • 20

  • 38

  • 9

  • 35

54


  • 9

  • 9

  • 31

  • 4

  • 0

Source: Ron Johnston, “Reducing the Size of the House of Commons and Equalising Its Constituencies”, paper given at The Constitution Unit, UCL, 23 July 2010.

Table 2. MPs elected on low vote shares

Norwich South

Brighton Pavilion




Votes (%)




Votes (%)

Simon Wright, LD

29.4

Caroline Lucas, Green

31.3

Charles Clarke, Lab

28.7

Nancy Platts, Lab

28.9

Antony Little, Con

22.9

Charlotte Vere, Con

23.7

Adrian Ramsey, Green

14.9

Bernadette Millam, LD

13.8

Steve Emmens, UKIP

Leonard Heather, BNP

Gabriel Polley, WRP


2.4

1.5


0.2

Nigel Carter, UKIP

Ian Fyvie, Socialist LP

Soraya Kara, CURE

Leo Atreides, Ind.



1.8

0.3


0.1

0.0


Oldham East and Saddleworth

Northampton North







Votes (%)




Votes (%)

Phil Woolas, Lab

31.9

Michael Ellis, Con

34.1

Elwyn Watkins, LD

31.6

Sally Keeble, Lab

29.3

Kashif Ali, Con

26.4

Andrew Simpson, LD

27.9

Alwyn Stott, BNP

5.7

Ray Beasley, BNP

3.3

David Bentley, UKIP

Gulzar Nazir, Christian Party



3.9

0.5


Jim MacArthur, UKIP

Tony Lochmuller, Green

Eamonn Fitzpatrick, Ind.

Timothy Webb, Christian P

Malcolm Mildren, Ind.


3.1

1.1


0.8

0.2


0.1

Table 3. Election result in Banks constituency, Australia, 2010




1st count

Elimination of Parsons

2nd count

Elimination of Spight

3rd count

Melham, Daryl (Labor)

36,034

+436

36,470

+6,680

43,150

Delezio, Ron (Liberal)

38,178

+583

38,761

+1,958

40,719

Spight, Paul (Green)

8,062

+576

8,638

Excluded




Parson, Michael (One Nation)

1,595

Excluded










Table 4. 2010 election results under different proportional systems




Actual result

Nationwide PR

PR in constituencies




No threshold

5% threshold

No threshold

5% threshold




Votes (%)

Seats (no.)

LR–Hare

D’Hondt

LR–Hare

D’Hondt

LR–Hare

D’Hondt

LR–Hare

D’Hondt

Conservative

36.1

307

235

241

266

266

239

254

242

254

Labour

29.0

258

189

193

214

214

203

213

207

213

Lib Dems

23.0

57

150

153

170

170

154

149

157

149

UKIP

3.1

0

20

20







7

0

3

0

BNP

1.9

0

12

12







8

0

2

0

SNP

1.7

6

11

11







13

13

13

13

Green

1.0

1

6

6







1

0

1

0

Sinn Féin

0.6

5

4

3







4

6

4

6

Democratic Unionist

0.6

8

4

3







4

5

4

5

Plaid Cymru

0.6

3

4

3







6

3

6

3

SDLP

0.4

3

3

2







3

3

3

3

Ulster Conservatives and Unionists

0.3

0

2

2







3

3

3

3

English Democrats

0.2

0

2

1







0

0

0

0

Alliance

0.1

1

1

0







1

1

1

1

Respect

0.1

0

1

0







0

0

0

0

Traditional Unionist Voice

0.1

0

1

0







1

0

1

0

Speaker (John Bercow)

0.1

1

1

0







1

0

1

0

Christian Party

0.1

0

1

0







0

0

0

0

Indep. Community and Health Concern

0.1

0

1

0







0

0

0

0

Independent

0.1

1

2

0







2

0

2

0

Level of disproportionality

(Gallagher index)






15.1

0.2

1.0

5.8

5.8

2.4

4.3

3.3

4.3

Table 5. Hypothetical voting figures in a five-member constituency

Party vote shares

A

B

C

D

40%

30%

20%

10%

Candidate vote shares

a

11%

f

10%

k

6%

p

5%

b

10

g

9

l

4

q

2

c

9

h

8

m

4

r

2

d

7

i

2

n

3

s

1

e

3

j

1

o

3

t

0

Table 6. Scottish Parliament election results, 2007: Highlands and Islands

Party

Share of regional list votes (%)

Total seat entitlement

Constituency seats won

Seats from regional lists

Scottish National Party (SNP)

34.4

6

4

2

Liberal Democrats

19.9

4

4

0

Labour

17.7

3

0

3

Conservatives

12.6

2

0

2

Green Party

Christian Party



4.6

3.4


0

0


0

0


0

0


Senior Citizens’ Party

2.1

0

0

0

Others

5.4

0

0

0

Total

100

15

8

7

Source: www.electoralcommission.org.uk

Table 7. Election results under AV+ compared to other systems

1997




First past the post

AV+ with 15% top-up

AV+ with 20% top-up

Nationwide PR (LR–Hare)

Labour

419

378

360

285

Conservative

165

160

175

202

Lib Dem

46

88

90

111

Others

29

32

34

61

Source: AV+: Jenkins Commission report, Annex A; LR–Hare: my calculations.

2010




First past the

post


AV+ with 15%

top-up


Nationwide

PR (LR–Hare)



Conservative

307

275

235

Labour

258

234

189

Lib Dem

57

110

150

Others

28

31

76

Source: AV+: Electoral Reform Society website; LR–Hare: my calculations.

Table 8. Local council election results in the Colinton/Fairmilehead ward of Edinburgh City Council, 2007: First preferences

Candidates

First preferences

Elaine Aitken (Conservative)

2,877

Eric Barry (Labour)

2,332

Stuart Bridges (Lib Dem)

1,842

Thomas Kielty (SNP)

1,861

Robert Mathie (Scottish Socialist)

80

Jason Rust (Conservative)

2,815

Alastair Tibbitt (Green)

517

Total

12,324

Number of seats to be filled

3

Droop quota

3082

Table 9. Local council election results in the Colinton/Fairmilehead ward of Edinburgh City Council, 2007: Elimination of bottom candidates

Candidates

First count

Second count

Third count

Fourth count

Transfer

Total

Transfer

Total

Transfer

Total

Elaine Aitken (Con)

2877

+1

2878

+29

2907

+204

3111

Eric Barry (Labour)

2332

+9

2341

+101

2442

+316

2758

Stuart Bridges (LD)

1842

+3

1845

+175

2020

+569

2589

Thomas Kielty (SNP)

1861

+20

1881

+102

1983

excluded




Robert Mathie (SSP)

80

excluded
















Jason Rust (Con)

2815

+1

2816

+28

2844

+150

2994

Alastair Tibbitt (Gr)

517

+29

546

excluded










Non-transferable




+17




+111

128

+744

872

Total

12,324



















Seats to be filled

3



















Droop quota

3082




















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